Since November 2013 High, we have been in wave (iv). Wave 4 are often complex. Well the price action has been complex since November high as can be seen by variation of my charts on Bitcons since then including the last one posted just 2 weeks ago.
However, overall whilst majority up to recently had been very bullish and were expecting to be in the region of 5000 by now, I have continued to maintain overall consolidation and bearish tone with conservative targets of retest of 340 or make new low around 280-260 zone. Many dismissed it and many clearly have made negative comments about my analysis. Often focusing on exactly where my line begin and end in terms of exact levels.
Whiles levels are important, is is not always possible to be so precise as some would expect form others when they themselves offer non except unhelpful criticism.
So this analysis is to be us3ed as general guide in the form of outline of the expected price action and where possible some levels which can be reinforced by some structure and fib relationship, but only as possibility.
In fact I am convinced that if any serious analyst was to focus on larger picture message then this my approach could be helpful. It has kept many from suffering massive drawdown or loss of profit by avoiding long position from November 2013 ATH or entering new longs from those higher levels.
So as an update to last published chart, whilst the low expected has taken place at lower level, overall picture is still the same with minor variance.
This is now shown as Larger ABC zizgag with Wave C needing 5 waves. This is clearly now shown on chart as potential ending diagonal (referred to as 3-3-3-3-3), which has already began or is about to being wave (iv) in blue. Text Book schematic diagram is shown to help understand the overall pattern. The upside could be 480-500 zone
Should this outline develop then we could see another leg lower from 480-500 zone retesting the recent low or making marginal lower low for form around Mid December 2014. On completion of which a major new bullish cycle could unfold which might at least approach the November all time high or make new higher high.
To me that is the most significant message of this analysis with proviso that the Ending diagonal explained above forms.
You are free to disagree, but for serious analyst this might be of interest and take it for what it is. Hope you find it interesting.
This is exactly what I am expecting to happen as well. Although, we have made some strong support at 300 (due to large order being filled and the 7+ hr price flatline), I do see ~260-280 being a possibility for one last bear trap before it bounces up once again (and then descend thereafter).
DanV
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Thanks, as they say, great minds thing a like.
DanV
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11th November 2014 - Update: If the wave iv of C, we are moving in anticipation of a zigzag move up. If this is correct interpretation then it seem to me that we are in 3rd swing of the zizgag and which could reach the upside of 450-475 but could make slightly higher target before reverting to downside.
DanV
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So it all boils down to what happens here in this box. Either it follows RED bearish OR BLUE Bullish. Even then bullish is now limited. I think the high is in place.
soap
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Looks like a RED :(
DanV
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Yes agreed. That also means that possible top is in place already. Will need to keep close eye to monitor shorter term price action for early confirmation.
DanV
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Many had lost heart and did not believe BTC could ever come up above 400 and the newly born bears were taunting anyone suggesting upside move calling to to 80. That of course was even worse than my bearish target. Anyway it seem that now it is a hurry to meet the 450 zone and may be could even spike into 480-500 zone. Then I suspect we will get many bears converted. hehehe