I tried to post a LOG scale chart so we could have a straight line, but that didn't work so I'll try to post it below.
It's important to notice that the volatility of rise is not identical to the last bull market and so the bear market should perhaps be shorter. I don't think correlation is causation but lately there are more exchanges, more traders, and the sentiment is certainly not the same. We're still in the denial stage of bitcoin adoption, but I've seen a little more of a "bitcoin sucks" sentiment this bear market, rather than last bear market which felt more of a "what is bitcoin?" or "that won't work!" sentiment.
Because the BTC/fiat price is a parabolic curve because of adoption and supply, short-term I think we could see anywhere from 2000 (low probability, would give it a 10% chance) to 5000 (reasonable probability, maybe 75%)