The pullback has happened although not as much as I speculated 4 weeks ago. READ PREVIOUS COMMENTARY for links to fundamentals pointing at upside support. Although the technical situation is changing from counter trend softness to a resumption of the rally, the fundamentals are still the same as they were a month ago.
I will summarize. The Chinese are the main players in the BTC market at the moment. The weak world-wide consumer discretionary spending and subsequent low demand for Chinese manufactured end product has led to active devaluation of the Yuan and the implosion of the China stock market value. The Chinese have to put their money somewhere and a reasonable number are savvy enough to (temporarily?) move into crypto-currencies. Gold , Silver , USD, are also benefiting. I suspect the USD strength is short term limited.
The wedging action between the dashed blue downward resistance and the current dashed red rally is coming to an end. There are no negative fundamentals. The trend break has a high likelihood of moving up rather than down. Price of BTC for the short term is bouncing along the downward . There might be a week or two left to pick up a BTC base investment in this range.
The implosion of the US stock market is just beginning and may take 6 months to play out. This will add some fuel to the BTC fire in the long run but not quite at this moment. USD will devalue as the US national debt gets closer to the $24T point of no return. This $24T+ debt is guaranteed to occur within the next few years, There is no way out due to an aging population and an increasing lack of tax producers. The political class including the government worker union members, Republicans, and Democrats is focused on increasing deficit spending which in effect requires the unborn to pay the interest not to mention the principal of the debt. This is excessively immoral and despicable.
By March the base price of BTC will be 10% higher or more.
If you think there exists negative BTC fundamentals, I would like to hear about it. Please comment and provide links to press reports supporting your position. Positive fundamental reports are welcome too.
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Also look at BTCCNY. The Chinese are dumping again which is a leading indicator relative to BTCUSD.
Support on this drop is $370. Exit from the uptrend which is still in play is at $450 in the next few weeks. The 10% rise, $500, after break out call I made is still in play. Caution is always prudent.