Bitcoin is still weak as ...., no aggressive buying

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bears are still laughing thinking this is just too easy. We had a small short squeeze Sunday after hitting the low at 5750, but the follow through has been complete crap. But one thing is for sure, the market got pushed down when it tried to break the 6300. There is absolutely no doubt about that! This could mean a few things, these same whales that are pushing it down again are playing games and try to buy back lower again, since bulls are just so weak and it's just to easy for them. Or they are not ready yet to let it rally because they still need to close their short positions.

Looking at the chart i see 2 options, the blue and purple line on one hand and the red line on the other. Because of this sideways movement it's difficult to say if we go up from here or that we make another drop between the current level and 5500ish. I think that if the 5500/5600 level breaks, we could see some real dumping and panic selling. This could trigger a nasty V shape low. Now don't look at the price level of the red line, that has no value at all. It's just to give you an image of how the chart could look like.

Even though the V shape low has been something i have mentioned for over a month now, at the moment i think the blue/purple lines have the biggest chance. Even though the bulls are still very VERY weak, it might just be part of the plan. Alts have been taking big hits and each bounce has been pushed down even more than Bitcoin . It's just so funny actually, that those famous people telling we will see insane rallies this year or the next, that from the moment they open their mouth the market has been making on dump after the other. If your such a tough guy/girl, put your money where you mouth is and buy this market up and scare the bears a little bit in to closing some of their short positions. Instead of probably selling them selves as well, just to secure some $ for their (already huge) pension.

All we can do is hope we get some answers soon, instead of this sideways action that does not show a clear path that the market wants to take.


Previous analysis
Comment: Looks like the market wants to move down, bulls are trying to break that resistance line, but after each small attempt it gets pushed down again. Yesterday i thought a big squeeze up could happen, but because we have been going sideways for so long since then, the chances of a big squeeze are smaller now. Not the same as that i don't we can't go up, just a big squeeze is less likely.
Comment: Bulls are trying to push higher now and hold the 5900/5850 level, but i don't see shorts covering yet, meaning they are to confident it seems. We could be something like an ABC, than this should be the low, or we do drop again and finish another wave down, that would probably form a bullish wedge, but this could mean we can drop towards 5500/5600

Comment: 2 things we should hope now, a quick bull flag and another push up or just a good drop to 6100/6150 to test support. Only thing we should not does not happen, going sideways for a day or 2. Push above 6300 could trigger another squeeze. But i don't think that will happen very fast. The sooner it does happen the bigger the jump probably. Had a 300/400 point squeeze now, so it's more than normal to go sideways for a at least 15 min (strong bull flag) or a bigger one of a few hours
Comment: So far it's has been following the purple line, depending on the what it will do next we can determine what it it is able to continue like the blue line, in the primary chart
Comment: I think we have a bigger chance that this rally WILL succeed, compared to the rally of Sunday. We have a much more solid foundation this time. Still does not give a guarantee of a (big) rally, could still make a drop before jumping up. But those chances are very small this time IMO. At least we can measure it a little bit, by how long this bull flag will take. The longer it takes the the less likely a rally becomes. But there is nothing wrong with an hour or two, but if it start to take much longer, something else might be going on
Comment: Starting to get some confirmation from the alts as well, looks like they want to continue higher and might keep Bitcoin going sideways a longer. If the 6300 breaks with some confidence, we should be able to go towards 6600/6800. Been a while since we've seen a bullish weekend, this might be the first again. As long as price stays above 6150ish, bulls should be able to keep control
Comment: Trying to make a new analysis today.

Look at this message, shows again that many people just don't have the slightest idea of how this market works. The amount of coins that are being traded in the market, or so small, they actually don't represent the true value of it. Saying $20 billion went in the market again, is completely wrong. Probably not even more than a couple of hundred mil. Same reason why this market gets dumped AND pumped so easily.
Comment: New analysis:


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i don't feel good for this up
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For scalpers , short and mid term traders these lines are working great:
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I'd be careful trading in and out of this zone. Looks like a 'Fools Rally' to me.

Although this may also be a larger accumulation zone. Don't get whipsawed :/

Happy Trading!
+2 Reply
with you on the blue line

Actually Botje.. you may be right and wrong.. and all at the same time. The market cap is not a number that can be faked, as the top ten coins, most can be tracked. Numbers by the exchanges have been accused of exaggerating their counts. As a non-believer in the integrity of the wealthy, I can see them making up numbers. On the other side, reliable sources are indicating a HUGE AMOUNT of coin is being BOUGHT on the OTC. You cannot track that.. you need insiders to tip off what is going on. However, due to the nature of the secrecy of the OTC transactions, you can only see the market cap to fill in what is missing.

Hence, the market just may have increased by those numbers as published. On the other hand, the false sense of optimism... the manipulators in play.. and other fundamentals.. do NOT have me rooting for a bullish return to the market just yet. I tend to think like you do, Botje.. and it's why I always see what you publish and take it into careful consideration for making my plays.
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