4xForecaster
Long

TECH-NOTE: The 4-Digit World | #BTCUSD #BTC #USD #bitcoin

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1366 27 8
Friends,

As we just hit yet another target dead-on and traders are processing this "What's next" moment of their insatiable mental processes, we'd like to pause and consider what just happened.


HOW LOW SHOULD IT REACT?
First, let us say that the chart has absorbed a lot of the bullish positions, and that some unwinding to the downside is occurring at the moment, right from the level we had defined as our original target at 1028.75. As bulls are keeping their sight to yet higher levels, expect for the current reactive decline to continue at significant Fib levels. We just defined 937.90 as a reasonable level of support, whereas the low of that impulse should concern bulls if it were ever reached (i.e.: slightly above the former 895.32 mark).


RETAIL vs. INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINT:
One detail to keep in mind is the institutional "footprint" seen in the volume , which can indicate a directional intention as well as define a price level of adverse tolerance to their directional commitment. What I mean here is that the recent volume spike rarely reflects a retail coordination, but rather a price-moving institutional move that occurred at a specific price origin, namely: 975.30. If you consider the entire impulse originating in on January 17th at the price mark of 867.43, then the 38% retracement of that level seem to correlate to where the volume swelled, again, here at around 975.30. So, expect a solid support if and when the current price action retraces to that level.


OUTLOOK:
Given the current technical data, we expect institutional traders to start "reloading", very much as we had mentioned before when price would fall into that "PINK" zone, and we remarked that stop-loss hunting was occurring. We believe that the situation is the same, and that protracted consolidation as well as deep and measured retracements, remains the dominant manner in which larger players will hunt for cheap positions as they take out weak-hands. So, we recommend a structural approach to your defensive positioning.


OVERALL:
We hit yet another target, and we remain bullish in our directional bias. The current status quo will likely be dominated by institutional preparation for further bullish advance. But this will require a known pattern of consolidation in which eager, junior and weak-hand traders will cede in their position to fuel that of larger, more intent players.

As Warren Buffett says:

"The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"

Cheers,


David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

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2014-01-28 @ 16:10GMT

BTC/USD

MtGox = $952.60

BTCe = $785.00

Bitstamp = $796.65

Why does this difference between exchanges occur and how come such a big difference between Gox and the rest?
Reply
@adjustin2u - Yes, very interesting differential in values. Not sure what allows such discrepancy, and I am wondering whether these exchanges are now operating on a non-adjusted coefficient level (as opposed to, say, the Forex currencies which are based on a relatively comparable reference currency).

I would read into the links provided in the discussions above to find more intelligent and detailed information than I could ever provide you. If you have more questions, I would ask the authors of the links (i.e.: those who posted the link herein), as they know quite more than I do. I am the analysis guy, like the dog scenting the duck in the bush, while these bitcoin traders do the duck hunting, looking for the species they know to look for.

Kwak-kwak!!!

David Alcindor
Reply
Emanance adjustin2u
If Gox is not allowing fiat withdrawals, but still taking fiat deposits. And at the same time allowing for BTC withdrawals (to verified account holders only I understand.) Would this not create it's own localised intra exchange economy. One in which an ever increasing fiat (USD) supply is being devalued against an ever decreasing BTC supply. These forces of supply & demand, bought together on a single exchange would work to create the huge differential (10-20%) we see on Mt. Gox.
Reply
Hi, @emanance - Not sure what the deal is between these exchanges. Sounds like there are supporters for one or another, and both had pretty strong feelings about why the other is the wrong exchange. In my little tree house, I look through the forest and study the winds, the bird's flight patterns and squirrel droppings. I put it all in the jar, look at the sun through it and come up with a direction that either favors the bears from uphill, or the bulls down in the valley. Either way, the direction applies to all, in a "tide carries all boats" sort of way. I would ask @ronfkingswanson about specifics before I bore you with my deer dropping collection.
Reply
Emanance 4xForecaster
Thanks 4xForecaster. Don't laugh, but I'm actually hoping to build a treehouse of sorts (well a permaculture homestead) with the fortune I plan to make off crypto currencies. I'm just glad we are on the same page :P.
Reply
Mt. Gox is more and more becoming like a Bitcoin Biotop. All the other Exchanges don't care about Gox and his price movents, only chuckle and make their own decisions. The volume on the other exchanges is lot higher and the price on Gox seems to be so high, 'cause people can not withdrawl their money, in some cases even not BTCs. All the Gox Problems are explained very well on the bitcointalk boards and confirmed by a lot of people.

I really like your TA, It's smooth and accurate. So realy it's pity that it's worthless for me.

Please think about taking Bitstamp, BTC-E or Huobi, 'cause this three are now market-leaders, and one follows-up the other.
Reply
4xForecaster PRO david.aguileragarcia
@david.aguileragarcia - Thank you for your feedback. Indeed, there's been a lot of request about paying attention to one exchange over another. I will wait a bit more before shifting my analysis to another exchange, but not until I hear something definitive about GOX.
Reply
That 937 target.. wow. Spot on. Still impressed. Send me your system !
Reply
@flibbr - Yes. Looking good so far. Let's see where that candle closes and a new one opens. A candle wick below this candle by this one and the next candle would be very bullish (tweezer-bottom formation).
Reply
l2009 4xForecaster
bitstamp is going down... do you think this will affect mtgox?
Reply
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