TECH-NOTE: The 4-Digit World | #BTCUSD #BTC #USD #bitcoin

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1365 27 8

As we just hit yet another target dead-on and traders are processing this "What's next" moment of their insatiable mental processes, we'd like to pause and consider what just happened.

First, let us say that the chart has absorbed a lot of the bullish positions, and that some unwinding to the downside is occurring at the moment, right from the level we had defined as our original target at 1028.75. As bulls are keeping their sight to yet higher levels, expect for the current reactive decline to continue at significant Fib levels. We just defined 937.90 as a reasonable level of support, whereas the low of that impulse should concern bulls if it were ever reached (i.e.: slightly above the former 895.32 mark).

One detail to keep in mind is the institutional "footprint" seen in the volume , which can indicate a directional intention as well as define a price level of adverse tolerance to their directional commitment. What I mean here is that the recent volume spike rarely reflects a retail coordination, but rather a price-moving institutional move that occurred at a specific price origin, namely: 975.30. If you consider the entire impulse originating in on January 17th at the price mark of 867.43, then the 38% retracement of that level seem to correlate to where the volume swelled, again, here at around 975.30. So, expect a solid support if and when the current price action retraces to that level.

Given the current technical data, we expect institutional traders to start "reloading", very much as we had mentioned before when price would fall into that "PINK" zone, and we remarked that stop-loss hunting was occurring. We believe that the situation is the same, and that protracted consolidation as well as deep and measured retracements, remains the dominant manner in which larger players will hunt for cheap positions as they take out weak-hands. So, we recommend a structural approach to your defensive positioning.

We hit yet another target, and we remain bullish in our directional bias. The current status quo will likely be dominated by institutional preparation for further bullish advance. But this will require a known pattern of consolidation in which eager, junior and weak-hand traders will cede in their position to fuel that of larger, more intent players.

As Warren Buffett says:

"The stock market is a wonderfully efficient mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient"


David Alcindor | 4xQuad.com
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting


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I have to say... i was skeptic at first when i saw your bullish target while everyone else was predicting a continued downfall but you nailed it. Congratulations!
@Tagada - At the risk of sounding pompous, I have been doing this for years and been teaching advanced traders some of the methodology I have put into practice here. Also, know that I have not traded any crypto-currency, and that all the work, predictive analysis and forecasts I have done here was simply to generate interest in trading and technical analysis among traders in TradingView.com, as I very much enjoy the responsibility I was invited to fill as a MOD by the TV "Founders". I say this because a lot of traders are used to pumpers and bashers, and I want to make sure that traders feel comfortable looking at what I do as a purely technical exercise.

I very much appreciate your feedback and endorsement as a former skeptic, and I hope to continue to feed that interest with more upcoming predictive analysis.

Thank you so much again.


David Alcindor, MOD
Tagada 4xForecaster
Well to be fair, i've been following your BTC and /LTC analysis for some time now, and it's only during the recent downtrend that i have been surprised by your bullish forecasts despite all odds. My own analysis, as well as many others' was bearish to say the least, but you stayed your course and ended up being right. Gotta respect it when this happens.
Yeah I have been following David for a long time and frequently tell him his targets are out of this world, crazy, but I also gotta give him credit where credit is due... he has a good hit ratio.
If you're not yet sick of my praises, surely soon you will be. This is absolutely fantastic -- I'm learning so much. I had to look up the definition of retail investor because I wasn't entirely familiar with it. My only issue with your analysis is that it's bound to gox, which hasn't shown the same level of deep retracement as the other exchanges which are yet to fully crack the consolidation resistance we've seen over the past few weeks. Indeed - the spread between gox and other exchanges has grown by a lot. It makes it much harder to set a profitable stop-loss that can't be swept on other exchanges. A lot less room for error.
4xForecaster PRO BuyOnPurple
@lierman - Thank you for the kind feedback. The chart I use is based on the volume/liquidity profile. There are several exchanges providing data for this crypto-currency, and the predictive analysis I offer is for educational purposes. However, once a directional bias comes out "Bullish" in our analysis, it will carry its interpretation across other exchanges as well, even though the intensity, duration and range of price action might greatly differ among these exchanges. Unless you can offer me some information that indicates that GOX has been outpaced in liquidity, then I will continue to provide analysis off of GOX.

Remember that the less liquid the exchange, the wider and deeper the swings for that illiquid exchange.

Hope this answers your question. Again, appreciate very much your generous and kind feedback.

Can you switch to using bitstamp in your charts? Gox is increasingly irrelevant
@bitbot256 - As indicated above (see the prior comment made to @lierman), "Remember that the less liquid the exchange, the wider and deeper the swings for that illiquid exchange. "

I hope this makes sense. If you have data that explicitly demonstrates that GOX has been outperformed in terms of liquidity by another exchange, then I will seriously consider shifting to that exchange to support my analyses.

Hope this makes sense.

eYou 4xForecaster
Maybe here some information as to liquidity on MtGox versus the other exchanges:

Huobi (China) is leading as to volume: 60% in last 30 days. Mt Gox has only 9% marketshare. See: http://www.bitcoinity.org/markets/list?currency=ALL&span=24h (choose timespan)

As to Mt Gox I learned from http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ that there are currently only 15.000 Bitcoins on the exchange for selling (ask).

From http://bitcoinwisdom.com/ you can see the exchanges Bitstamp, MtGox, BTC-E and Huobi and also their trading volumes. Huobi is leading here as well. So what happens on MtGox may be not representative for the other exchanges.

What do you think?

Thank you for yout time and analysis. Great work!!


flibbr PRO Dafinci
Bearstamp is too boring. Gox has 136x more fiat that bearstamp and way more coins.
Does the divergence in price compared to gox and the other exchanges worry you at all? It is becoming apparent that gox is having solvency issues, very few people are able to withdraw fiat from the market. Also, as of yesterday about 10,000BTC are in limbo at the exchange unable to be withdrawn.

apiviali grusum
interesting article, its not the first time I read a warning about Mtgox either
@4xForecaster : Thank you for your analysis. I'm learning a lot through them even if I still have hard times seeing entry and exit points ; you help a lot and I find beautiful the way market movements are being decrypted and "predicted".
Regarding MtGox -> according to bitcoincharts MtGox still holds 21% of the volume distribution.
Also, eToro.com - the famous social trading platform - now provide their users BTC trading via MtGox.
@eYou - I looked at that link. The data is only over 24hrs. If you look at the 6-month data collection, MGOX remains a leader. I am not here to inform or educate anyone on GOX vs. other exchange, as I trust you guys know a lot more about this fundamental detail, but I can say that the 24hrs is not enough data for me to draw any conclusion.

Here is the link to the 24hr data:

Now, compared to the 6-month:

However, I do agree that the 24-hour, 3-day, 7-day and 30-day data only lists Huobi, Bitstamp and BTCe as the top-three leaders.

Looking ahead, I expect that either some consolidation will take place, or attrition will occur, as businesses turn to bitcoin-based transactions, and the cost of doing business by these exchange will set them apart.

David Alcindor
That 937 target.. wow. Spot on. Still impressed. Send me your system !
@flibbr - Yes. Looking good so far. Let's see where that candle closes and a new one opens. A candle wick below this candle by this one and the next candle would be very bullish (tweezer-bottom formation).
l2009 4xForecaster
bitstamp is going down... do you think this will affect mtgox?
Hello @l2009 - I am not very well versed about any fundamental information or exchange information between Huobi, BTCe, Bitstamp or MTGOX. However, I look at these as a total system in terms of directional bias. So, while there may be significant discrepancy on smaller timeframes, I expect these to move in sync over longer time spans - David.
l2009 4xForecaster
937.67 0_0 so close it's spooky. of course, carnage continues, so....
Mt. Gox is more and more becoming like a Bitcoin Biotop. All the other Exchanges don't care about Gox and his price movents, only chuckle and make their own decisions. The volume on the other exchanges is lot higher and the price on Gox seems to be so high, 'cause people can not withdrawl their money, in some cases even not BTCs. All the Gox Problems are explained very well on the bitcointalk boards and confirmed by a lot of people.

I really like your TA, It's smooth and accurate. So realy it's pity that it's worthless for me.

Please think about taking Bitstamp, BTC-E or Huobi, 'cause this three are now market-leaders, and one follows-up the other.
4xForecaster PRO david.aguileragarcia
@david.aguileragarcia - Thank you for your feedback. Indeed, there's been a lot of request about paying attention to one exchange over another. I will wait a bit more before shifting my analysis to another exchange, but not until I hear something definitive about GOX.
2014-01-28 @ 16:10GMT


MtGox = $952.60

BTCe = $785.00

Bitstamp = $796.65

Why does this difference between exchanges occur and how come such a big difference between Gox and the rest?
@adjustin2u - Yes, very interesting differential in values. Not sure what allows such discrepancy, and I am wondering whether these exchanges are now operating on a non-adjusted coefficient level (as opposed to, say, the Forex currencies which are based on a relatively comparable reference currency).

I would read into the links provided in the discussions above to find more intelligent and detailed information than I could ever provide you. If you have more questions, I would ask the authors of the links (i.e.: those who posted the link herein), as they know quite more than I do. I am the analysis guy, like the dog scenting the duck in the bush, while these bitcoin traders do the duck hunting, looking for the species they know to look for.


David Alcindor
Emanance adjustin2u
If Gox is not allowing fiat withdrawals, but still taking fiat deposits. And at the same time allowing for BTC withdrawals (to verified account holders only I understand.) Would this not create it's own localised intra exchange economy. One in which an ever increasing fiat (USD) supply is being devalued against an ever decreasing BTC supply. These forces of supply & demand, bought together on a single exchange would work to create the huge differential (10-20%) we see on Mt. Gox.
Hi, @emanance - Not sure what the deal is between these exchanges. Sounds like there are supporters for one or another, and both had pretty strong feelings about why the other is the wrong exchange. In my little tree house, I look through the forest and study the winds, the bird's flight patterns and squirrel droppings. I put it all in the jar, look at the sun through it and come up with a direction that either favors the bears from uphill, or the bulls down in the valley. Either way, the direction applies to all, in a "tide carries all boats" sort of way. I would ask @ronfkingswanson about specifics before I bore you with my deer dropping collection.
Emanance 4xForecaster
Thanks 4xForecaster. Don't laugh, but I'm actually hoping to build a treehouse of sorts (well a permaculture homestead) with the fortune I plan to make off crypto currencies. I'm just glad we are on the same page :P.
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