Like I highlighted in my previous report, the lone candle (that at the time of writing was a but closed stronger), was never able to close above the 10429 resistance (.382 of current swing). Closing above that level is the signal that I require to confirm that momentum is back.
The 9604 level (.382 of current swing) and convenient location for a Wave 4 bottom is being tested again. One reversal formation that I would like to see is the failed low in this area. That is when price goes slightly lower than the previous close and then closes strong. In this case, IF this scenario were to unfold, the next candle should be a , or candle. If this occurs I would consider adding to my position.
What if you took the aggressive long swing trade that I described in my previous report? It is possible you have been stopped out if you used the 9600 level as your reference point. Remember swing trades and position trades are not the same. They each operate on different time horizons and carry different risks. People that trade smaller time horizons often take on larger positions faster and is why a stop must be used in order to control the increased risk. Position trades are accumulated over time and are more in line with principles of longer term investing. This means numerous small positions add up to an aggregate position with an average price. My risk is controlled through strategic sizing rather than a stop which allows the bigger picture to play out and not get kicked out of a position too early. The risk in this type of trade can be bigger, especially if the overall outlook or premise changes. I understand and accept these risks.
What about the Wave 4 bottom? The current is a convenient place for a Wave 4 to Wave 5 transition to take place, but does not mean it will. Typically, wave 4's are tricky and can include numerous false starts. Keep in mind as long as the low of Wave 4 does not over lap with the high of Wave 1, the impulse wave is still intact (which means there is plenty of room for a minor or failed low formation). IF price action over laps with the highs of Wave 1, then the impulse would be negated and the market would be signalling more of a range bound condition rather than a trending one.
In summary, as long as there is no reversal pattern, it is reasonable to expect price to push into the low 9Ks or even retest the 8174 to 7230 minor (.618 of recent swing). Before I add to my position trade, I would like to see a solid form of confirmation such as a or higher low off of the current level. Unless I see that, I will just sit on what I have and wait. As a trader or investor, you must always be prepared for anything because nothing is certain in any financial market. If this market falls apart, I can handle it because I am sized appropriately to my risk tolerance. If you can't handle it, that means you are in too big and lack a well defined plan. I cannot emphasize enough that if you cannot handle losses, then you are in the wrong game. The ability to embrace risk is what facilitates rational position management and trade criteria no matter what time horizon you are participating in. The inability to lose is what facilitates fear, and scared money never wins. When it comes to timing financial markets there are countless pieces of information to consider and compare, and it can be confusing to say the least. To help clear this confusion, begin with broader time horizons and a focus on risk. Participation may be much less eventful, but the outcome will be more in line with best practices which often lead to more positive outcomes.
Questions and comments welcome.
Big wait! Good luck with your buy plan. In meantime day traders are still scalping for 200 points every single day - is it better to accumulate 1200 points per week steadily off shorter term signals or to big game hunt, waiting for the big one? Or both
1200 per week means you own Bitcoin outright every 2 months. Trade Bitcoin. Forget about owning it like some big-game trophy hunter. In the end it's just a vehicle for making points off. Every day. You must decide. Do you seek to own Bitcoin or make points off it ?
Taken this was a single, coordinated cash out in order to shake the price down significantly I would consider it kind of failed, sure they sliced a good part off, but it did not cause another panic selling, yet.
In general I see a underlying strength in the fact that the price did not all like a chain reaction, given all those bearish calls around.
I agree with you, nevertheless that we may visit the 6k Area again. I expect a double bottom to the lows seen 2 weeks ago and a move back to the low 9k from there. 9k is in my opinion the strong trendline area which bitcoin follows a long time now, and I have the strong belief that we will circle around that trend for the better part of 2018.
Now check the BITFINEX BTCUSD chart for the same time and you see a volume spike in one minute of 2500BTC selling all the way down from 10250 to 9500 usd.
This is massive in my opinion, so let's see how this all shakes down.
I would say, ride the bear just don't feed it.