Peymana71

BTC Realtime Analyse #10

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello my dear friends,
I'm back with my new weakly BTC Realtime,Number 10.
Firts of all i need to confess something.My last BTC Realtime(#9) was a total CRAP.I saw much bearish signs and even mentioned all of them in my idea but published it with a Bullish main chart.That fault caused by my emotional weakness but like all i'm a human and i think best humans find their mistakes and weaknesses and try to turn them to power.So i'm sorry about that and need to thanks all of you that support me again even with that fault.
Second,main chart of this idea just contains what i see in chart and don't want to predict anything,so let's check what we have in chart.
After BTC dropped out of that bearish wedge in July 29th,turned to a falling knife again and we didn't see any meaningful retrace or correction for this downwards except some boring sideway that just full BTC's Fuel for falling.
As you see in my chart we can draw a downward channel for last movement's,but almost.exactly now,with my typing, BTC try to break this channel.After that we need to see a correction now,as you see we are about to make EMA Death Cross and it will happen with next BTC's negative movements.That cross will show us that BTC doesn't have much hope to stop still 5100.
I draw some important supports in chart too with black and red color and an arrow that show them,but what they are?My friendas and were with me in my BTC Realtime know this supports but i will explain them again for those that are new or forgot it.
I believe that after dec we made 2 long term bullish wedge in BTC chart that one of them worked last month with an iH&S.This wedge is one of my supports and i draw it with black.Second support is a line that connect BTC last lows to each other and i draw it with red.To understand this situation better,please look at Daily chart , bellow:
As you see alongside of those two support we are in potential fib retrace zone,now.All of these make me believe that we will see a little retrace or even reversal soon,but we need to make it soon.Believe me after EMA Death Cross all thing will turn more harder.
In chart above we have multiple EMAs that play resistance role now and exactly are in different fib levels.This Chart show how this way up is hard.But like always Supports and Resistance made for break and if market decide to break them,will break.
Back in 4H chart,in RSI Indicator i have a very important line that we had important reactions to it from july and now we break it again in a bullish way.In Daily RSI we are above my support,yet and made a reversal after touched it.It's a good sign.
In lower time frames we have almost bullish signs that maybe making our retrace now,need to see.But first important resistance exceptmy areas(red=resistance yellow=support) is this line in my view,chart bellow:
As you see we broke it now temporary and need to hold this,fail in holding this achievement will cause EMA Death Cross Sooner.In that case we have path like chart bellow:
Like always i will update this weakly idea in Realtime with any sign.Thanks all of your togetherness and kindness again.
Please like this idea if you like my job and leave here a comment for me to know what is your opinion.
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Comment: Look like BTC started to move.
Comment: This line stopped BTC for now,if BTC break this too,there isn't any big resistance till 7350.
Comment: So,BTC dropped and now we have a EMA Death Cross,as i mentioned.We broke my first important support and even had a effort to break second one,but temporary stopped our falling.Now loot at chart bellow to see where were we are?
AS you see i use fib retrace with 2 different start point and in first one we are exactly at 78% and in second one that started from little higher we passed the 78%.In Daily RSI BTC lost its support and in 4H we had a revers exactly in that important area,i mentioned yesterday.So all of these show us we shouldn't have much hope before 5100 but before that we need to break my second and more important support first.
Somehow if we didn't break first support,it will became a different bad situation. imagine what i draw in chart bellow:
Yeah with weak strength in market we will form a H&S that was more dangerous that classic fallings.But be careful,BTC can form that f***** H&S,still but have litte chance to see that.
Comment: But if we don't break this support,i have a surprise for you. ;))
Comment: In 4H,our candle closed exactly on this support line,maybe we see that retrace now in this area.
Comment: And again we have another RSI bullish reversal in 4H,need to break that resistance line and prove the break first.we are in oversold area and there isn't any solution for RSI recovery except making another attempt.
Comment: I'm really think this is a Descending Broadening Wedge.It's a Bullish pattern,need to see what will happen,next.
Comment: *I'm = I
Comment: Join my Telegram channel and vote for "which kind of activity you prefer?".It will help me to find out what is better to do, there.
https://t.me/PeymanA71
Thanks
Comment: So,last important support broke and my wedge pierced.Moved all the way to our start point,with a 100% retrace of last wave up.
Comment: We need to reach line i show with arrow(this line) in chart to prove my broadening wedge but in this path we have many strong resistance that drawn there.In MACD we are close to make a creoss over and in RSI we have same situation like last days.
Comment: In Lower time frames like 1H we have a bullish divergence in RSI,too.
Comment: We are above first resistance and reached important resistance of RSI,what gonna happen?
Comment: So,candle closed above first resistance and as you see in chart we rejected exactly in my second resistance(read area),we need to reach to third resistance (dotted line) at least to prove downward channel instead a broadening wedge.Failure to reach these points will show us more weakness in BTC .in RSI we have a neutral signal that can turn to a bearish one,easy.
Comment: As you see we reached my third resistance and made 2 impact with it and couldn't break it yet.In RSI we repeated that pattern and about to repeat it,again.But in MACD we have bullish crossover,finally.What is here obvious is that our bulls hasn't a good momentum and power in fights,maybe they hold this strength till now but it's not enough.Need to break this resistance NOW,if not we fall again soon.In 1H you can see that we have EMA50 in resistance role,too,exactly in that area.If we drop it will show our downward channel is valid and has good credit.
Comment: I want to illustrate for you to understand well, bulls must kill what kind of bears:
First : short term and resistance i draw for you last day.imagine we can break third one we will have chart bellow:
If you see it exactly you can find out we will have a potential h&S after reach next resistance.see it better:
We can make this even if we break next resistance and reach my broadening wedge resistance.Must to break broadening wedge and reach 7050 for a little safety.
After that H&S we will have a more horrible destiny in mid-term.
Second : mid-term.Just see this :
Yeah,this ugly H&S again.Maybe i said(in 3 days ago update) this is a tilt H&S or volume profile not fit but with pressure of little H&S we will trigger this too.
Because of these i said we need to bounce soon or honestly,i prefer to continue drop from where we are now,at least we fall with less pressure in this case.
So just can say GOD SAVE BTC,lol.and good luck for those that hold BTC or Traders that didn't sell with us when i said.
Comment: So see you in dark side of the moon. ;))
Hope we see bulls kingdom,there.
Comment: One another formation in 1H.
Comment: And worked.
Comment: Are we set BTC's low?I see an effort to forming an iH&S,a pure reversal pattern.In RSI as we followed it in last days we did another impact with resistance and broke it,need to prove this now instead of repeat pattern again.In 4H MACD we made another bullish crossover and bearish one didn't last long.In 1H we broke EMA50 temporary and need to prove it,too.Now need to monitor and see what will happen.I didn't enter market for a new trade(since my stop worked at 7800),yet,but i will mention here if i decide to enter again.
Comment: We are close to final destination,i'm working on new BTC Realtime,sorry for 1 day late, i was too busy on my office.Instead of that i have several buy signal for ALTs,i will publish them soon.
Comment: Thanks all of you for your supports,please join me in BTC Realtime #11.Don't forget to like my posts if you like my job.
Comment: Last idea blocked for some house rule,i edit it and published again.join me there.

Comments

well done, mate! keep up the good work!
+1 Reply
Peymana71 cryptozwerg
@cryptozwerg, Thanks my friend.
Reply
FritzWagner cryptozwerg
@cryptozwerg, agree, really good work
Reply
My count

Reply
Thanks for your wisdom with the analysis ...
Seems #11 was blocked.
Reply
Peymana71 Kublick
@Kublick,You're welcome,they block it because some house rule,i edit it and publish again.
Reply
haha!!
4k is very near!
dump and dump!
Reply
A new higher low from 7.8k would change your perspective? Can the 7.8k be the beginning of a trend and this being the initial turbulent phase (wave 1/2 of EW theory) ? If we increase the periods of the moving average of the volumes, we see a progressive increase. Thank you.
Reply
awesome! what's next?
Reply
Peymana71 MariyaS
@MariyaS, :))
Reply
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