Thank You if You followed my charts from Chart 1 through 2 to 3. Here I wanted to point out that the aforementioned pumps and dumps are not only seen on the smaller scale, obviously. Market moves are based on psychology, how people think about buying and selling. There are certain patterns that people tend to follow when they are enthusiastic or when full of uncertainity. If You are interested, please check out my older posts about this phenomenon. These posts are not based on clasic trading analysis, so they don't really lose that much of their meaning with time.
Now, the sudden pumps and dumps that are shown in chart 1 and 2 are just examples, but they describe how this recent market and rally is playing with our senses... and nerves. Classic trading analysis shows very confusing signs recently, and that's because the regular investor's psychological patterns are broken by sudden moves which happen in a matter of minutes, and make price swing large percentages. But there is always a larger scale, and big investors, whales, might have a psychological pattern as well. Or at least good-ol' techniques that they used with success in the past, and might use the same techniques again. Why? Because little unexperienced investors, and even the little investors who are experienced but don't have enough funds to manipulate price, tend to forget what happened in the market 1-2 years ago, or simply can't do anything about it. You know, "this time it's different". So successful techniques have a chance to work again for the big ones.
Here I compared 2017-18 rally with the recent one. I already posted a somewhat similar chart, but this tries to show where we might be. Of course these rallies are not mirror images of the other, things don't happen in EXACTLY same ways in life. But there is an obviuous similarity. For me it suggests that the big guys might repeat their good-ol' movements, and if that is so, then You can easily see what's coming soon. It will be interesting to see whether they can / will win the chess-match with the same moves again, and again, and again, and again... Or did people learn their moves at last? Or maybe the big guys are bored of our game style and want to win in another way now, to freshen up things a bit? But why do such things if you can beat the sh*t out of your opponent anyway? Decide for yourself. But I recommend to beware of the saying "this time it's different". Might be. This just might be the first time when it is different. Or will be different on the smaller scale, but not on the large one. Maybe this whole rally is just "move 1", right? And the top is at 100k. What do You think? :)
Of course, this is not trading advice, neither my previous charts, Chart 1 and 2. These are just thoughts.
Thank You for reading my posts, I am really happy if You enjoy them!
BIG RED UPDATE: The BIG red candle happened since I started to make this miniseries consisting of three ideas. Not so unexpected if you havew read my posts. Looks like I am not completely out of my mind. Maybe the chess-match will be the same as always after all...
Regardless of this, please read my Chart 1 and 2 as well, it would make me really happy to see that people are interested in my work. My charts are not really about technicals, rather psychology and thoughts about the market, so you might find some useful info in it, since they are not so strongly related to recent events.
***** Anyway, I recommend to eat the big fishes, they are tasty. You deserve to eat them. And they deserve to be eaten as well.
Ho letto i tuoi post e sono molto interessanti,ma noi comuni mortali come possiamo contrastare le balene?Non ricordo bene un post letto qualche tempo fa che in una mossa delle balene i piccoli mortali erano riusciti a contrastarli grazie
Jucsik
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@bravissima, well (if I understand the question correctly, sorry I used google translate :)) there are some things that a mortal can do in my opinion :)
- First, if you are a day trader, then I think you should have a very good knowledge and experience in trading analysis. Thats because basically there are normal market movements to analyze and use for normal trading. These happen between the large arteficial pumps or dumps. But then even experienced traders should be aware of the unforeseeable movements, and kepp stop losses etc.
- Then there are the HODL technique. I suppose that people who invest in btc think that it will have a bright future. So if you simply buy somewhere, then you have a good chance to win much money in a few years. But you have to tolerate every up and down, minus and plus, win and loss, and just ignore them, until you reach high up.
- And then there are people in between. For example those who invested at 6000, and now have 9500. They often have little experience, but know what "trend" and "whales" etc mean, so they somewhat understand the market as it is. They can use common sense and for example now say just us described above that ohhh, rhese look similar, then I will sell now and wait for lower prices to buy back in. These people should keep in mind that it is always risky to sell or buy, no matter if it is uptrend or downtrend, you can always make a trade that you will regret, and then you have to wait for a long time to have an opportunity again. You have to keep in mind that it is virtually impossible to sell or buy exactly at the top or bottom, even near to it. So it is very likely that you will see missed chances and losses. So this requires a lot of patience. And the ability to never sell lower than where you bought. It will go up eventually, even if you see big losses at the moment. But you have to have patience, and when you see that you sold and won money, but it went higher afterwards and you could have made more... then be satisfied with what you have. And book your winnings when you feel that "this is a nice little sum I won here, I will use it for something good now".
- dont try to day trade without immense experience
- even the whales have patterns on large scale, so the market makes trenda and patterns, fractals as well
- be patient
- be satisfied with a decent amount of winnings
- leave a part of your invesent in for a long time, years. So practically, have an amount locked doen for hodl