However, we can assess the past history of BTC to try to understand what the most likely outcome will be. Based on the history of BTC , in the early stages of prior bull markets, there has always been a 150-300% rally to the upside, followed by a pennant-type consolidation, essentially forming a . So, with that understanding, I know that this formation fits those characteristics of the early stages of prior bull markets.
When I step back and look at this formation on the weekly chart, I can clearly see that it's a huge . That doesn't mean that it's guaranteed to break to the upside. But, it is le nonetheless. So, if we assess this formation as a , we can see that there was a clear flag pole, and now we're in a shaped consolidation. Much like the prior bull markets, the bottom of this is resting right on top of the 21 week moving average (in orange,) which is the same moving average that was held in the beginning of every prior bull market. So, it looks like the 21 week MA may be the catalyst that finally causes the to breakout to the upside. When we project a target out from the , we can see that it's essentially right at the all time high. So, the takeaway here is that I think there is a strong technical possibility that BTC will test the all time high, if we see a breakout from this , and particularly if we see a hold of the 21 MA on a weekly basis. It those conditions aren't met, I think things could get very nasty in the market. As I've said before, this is the ultimate test for a confirmation of a sustainable long-term bull market in Bitcoin . Personally, I think there is a much higher probability that BTC will hold and head higher, as opposed to the probability that it will return to the downside. Regardless, we will know soon enough when BTC holds or fails at the 21 week MA.
I'm The Master of The Charts, The Professor, The Legend, The King, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
Just for your notes. It will be cool if you correct your title and text, just in order not to confuse novice traders.
How to draw the pennant, you can see in my post