As predicted in my previous post, BTC bounced off the .5 Fib (11,330). So, what now?
In my opinion, we are forming an ascending triangle (AT), with resistance at the .786 Fib (11,770). We are currently riding the support of the triangle, so watch out for that. A break down (with convincing volume) would invalidate the AT.
Until that happens, I will remain bullish. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________
OPINION (unchanged): BULLISH
ANALYSIS (updated): ----------------------------- See above
Comment
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Quick update!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ARHuSWJ8/[\image]
I am not liking the action of the past 12 hours, so I closed my long position. - We got a (downwards) triangle break, to test the (magenta) line, that marks the trend line of this "bull run". - That break was followed by a +/- 5% run-up, to test the 12,100 level. However, ** Volume has been weak. ** We bounced off the 12,100 level and are currently consolidating near the 12,000 level.
You can argue that we are forming a bull pennant, but I don't trust it. I prefer to watch it from the sideline.
Note that the Weekly, Daily, 4H and 1H RSIs are all above .70.
I’m bullish on the long-term as well.
With a corrective flat Elliot wave structure developing and without a big margin long-side bias, BTC has potential to make higher highs after finding support at the 10.5-11k zone.
Do you agree with the setup?
I think the 12,100 level will tell us a lot.
- If we manage to break that, with strong volume, we may see a clear-sky scenario.
- If we get rejected, with strong volume, that may kick-off a (major) correction.
To be honest, I am of the opinion that (for market-structure reasons) we need a correction all the way to the 9,600 CME gap. That would be a 20% correction, but those are not uncommon in a BTC bull-cycle.
=> The longer an uptrend continues, the weaker the entire structure becomes.
Phi-Deltalytics
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@GeertVD, I totally agree. BTC rarely has deep retracements in bull runs, prolonged sideway actions at most. Since 12k is such a crucial lvl, we might consolidate here for a while too.
With a corrective flat Elliot wave structure developing and without a big margin long-side bias, BTC has potential to make higher highs after finding support at the 10.5-11k zone.
Do you agree with the setup?