Bitcoin Extra Fractal Update, DEFCON 1 and 2 :)

Thought this one was worth showing. Think most might have seen it already, but this is the area were are in now. Reason why i said, we need to see volume increase during moves up, well this is why. There are a lot of similarities to why Bitcoin should drop from current levels, but i do want to show a few differences.

1) The move from 38x to 4030 was a buying rally and not a short squeeze.
2) Back then, it was more like a double top (because of that selling volume at that high in the middle), this time it's still a bull flag.
3) Yesterday's move up to 4010, was some big aggressive buying. Back then the selling was more aggressive (green circles).
4) In Jan alts were breaking out upwards the last few hours just before the drop, this time alts are weaker.
5) Alts market cap, is better now than it was 2 months ago.

Point one is an important one, because a short squeeze is artificially (forced buying, stops triggering). Point one, is difficult to say, shape is not clear. Point 3 has meaning, but volume then was in general a bit higher than now. Point 4, maybe bulls don't want to get fooled twice, or is that maybe on purpose?

There are even more factors, but things will get too complicated and it won't add much, just makes the puzzle even bigger :). I am keeping it simple. If the 3960 breaks, i would be on Defcon 3, if that channel breaks, i would be on DEFCON 2, if the 3940/30 breaks, i would be on DEFCON 1 :).

The 3990/4010 needs to break, but if that happens, the volume needs to keep increasing on the way up from current levels, this is extremely important. If this happens, we should see a push to 4150/4200 from current levels, it should not be anything less than that!! It doesn't have to be a short squeeze, but bulls need to be in control if we do break the 4000ish.
If that channel breaks, as mentioned, i would be very careful, if the low of the bull flag breaks (around 3940/20, i would simply get out or hedge my positions. The bull flag looked almost perfect since the start even, just the past 12 hours, things have been taking to much time and to little movement. Usually a sign of bears being in control, but i am not convinced yet. Green zone at the end, shows back then and now at the similar stage, volume was dead.




Previous analysis: This one is also still active.

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So the bears seem to have failed again with that attempt to break down. RIght after my post we started to drop so i kept watching a bit, volume increased on the way down, but after a second attempt to break the 3945 the bears gave up it seems. On the right it looks like we are moving inside of a triangle now. On the left we can see that channel broke now moving against it again.

So i think the range we need to watch has become smaller now, 3980/90 and 3940/30. A break should give us a real answer.

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Was a small breakout with some big buys on Bitmex, but no follow through so everyone jumped in to sell again. So we might have an important moment now, if the volume continues like this, we could see a break up or down now coming hour, out of this range. This failed attempt is normally a bad sign, but there is support up to 3960ish

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Support held, bulls did another attempt with a bit more volume which is good. But in general, volume is still a bit low. But could be that it happens at the breakout.

Because of the slow movement, starting to get the shape of a double top now. So if we see an attack of 4040ish, it has to shoot through it, to prevent a double top.

On the right we can see the triangle is still in play, but breakout volume is low.

So in general, volume has to increase coming hours. A break of 3965/3950 will slow things down and might even give the bears the upper hand. Will depend, on how much volume we will get if they push it down. Higher volume dumping, means more likely to see more downward pressure. Low volume dump, usually means bulls take a small break.

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I see some bear at Bitmex, trying to push the price down, but they keep falling short so far, they have been falling short several times now the past days. Maybe it's on purpose even.

Anyway, the same shape we have on the left, has been formed on the right now as well. If the bulls can hold this shape, we should see a jump up soon. If that blue line breaks, we could drop again to 3980 or even much lower, don't know. Alts still not believing any of this, just not moving up. So still some confusion at this point.

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Looks like a standard Bart move so far, but normally it goes much faster and harder. Of course cant be sure about this, but almost feels like they are not strong enough. Above 4000ish, could start to think the Bart dump is invalid.

These are all assumptions, i simply don't and can't know who will win this fight now.

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So another push down, but still not the dumps as usual at moment like these, So still not sure what to make of this.

The double top mentioned earlier is in play now. With pattern like these there are usually 2 options.

1) Neckline of the double top break (around 3945/25) and we make another drop with it's target around 3840
2) The double top turns into a triangle, which means the 3950/60 has to hold.

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Update Bitcoin analysis:

 

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Sorry, wrong one

New Bitcoin analysis:

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Now the wrong link :)

This is the correct version now