Current Outlook
1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish
2 weeks - 12 months: bearish
1-2+ years: Super bullish
Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s.
If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step.
Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory
The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal.
We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal.
When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short.
We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet.
Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again.
I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has.
This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening.
Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
1-2 weeks: neutral-bullish
2 weeks - 12 months: bearish
1-2+ years: Super bullish
Three days ago I changed my short term outlook from bearish to neutral and over the past couple days I have been leaning bullish for the very near term (1-2 weeks). That is due to the tweezer bottom on the weekly chart, breaking a Bill Williams Fractal on the daily chart, breaking out of the down trend that started on 5/5, the Ichimoku Cloud being out of equilibrium and the bullish crossovers on the shorter term EMA’s.
If that sounds overwhelming then take a deep breathe and let’s go through each indication step-by-step.
Tweezer Bottom on the weekly chart is self-explanatory
The Bill Williams Fractals are in yellow and you will notice that we haven’t broken above one since 5/5 when the downtrend started. We got very close on 6/7 but managed to stay slightly below. We did break a fractal on 6/30 when we traded above $6,358. That triggered the stop losses on my BTC:USD and ETH:USD shorts and was my first major indication of a short term reversal.
We had been steadily resisting the trend line from 5/5 and when that broke it served as confirmation of a short term reversal.
When looking at the Ichimoku Cloud on the 3 day chart we can see a large C-Clamp which indicates how far out of equilibrium we currently are. That indicates short term oversold conditions and tells me that this bounce could go much higher than originally expected. The long, flat cloud at $10,400 indicates the furthest I would expect to bounce. If we do get to that price then I would be viewing it as a high probability short.
We currently have a bullish crossover on the 12 and 26 period EMA’s on the following timeframes: 1h, 2h, 4h, 6h, and 12h. As noted yesterday we continue to trade in between those EMA’s on the daily chart. If wanting to make a bullish entry waiting for those EMA's to crossover on the daily chart should be your best bet.
Even with all of the short term bullish indicators it is possible to continue to drawdown at any moment. The daily chart is threatening a tweezer top along with a bearish spinning top and that could be all that is needed for the bears to start selling aggressively again.
I am going to continue waiting on the sidelines for further development. I am still holding onto my ETH:BTC shorts from 0.07479 - 0.07844 and have set the stop loss at 0.0731. I am finding it very interesting that ETH:USD and ETH:BTC have not broken through the downtrend like Bitcoin has.
This is a great time of year to get outside and enjoy the weather while waiting for the market to develop! Instead of biting my nails and watching the order book I will be playing golf and softball this evening.
Thank you for your time! Have something to say? Leave a comment! Click the follow so that you don’t miss out on future updates and remember that smashing the like is good karma!
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/