Remember one thing, there is NO better market out there than crypto (:
As highlighted in my last analysis, BTC broke below the 50W moving average which has signaled a bear trend in the past.
Now that BTC & the rest of the market have started to fall, the next step of the analysis needed is to show the 100W & 200W moving average.
There are 3 main points of reference on the chart: - GREEN LINE = Logarithmic Trend - BLUE LINE = 100 Week Moving Average - ORANGE LINE = 200 Week Moving Average
Using past history: BTC breaks 50W MA —> 100W MA BTC breaks 100W MA —> 200W MA (this is where it bottoms using past data)
Right now, BTC is heading towards the 100W MA which currently sits right around $31,000. This is conveniently located right in the MASSIVE support area of $29,000 - $31,000. BTC has always stayed above the 100W MA in bull markets. When BTC decided to break below in the past, price landed directly on the 200W MA. (Currently sitting at $20,000) BTC has never closed a candle below the 200W MA in history (we can reference this with just as much importance as the logarithmic trend). Each time BTC has touched the 200W MA, it signaled the bear market/trend was near an end.
The green line has been the logarithmic “support” for BTC, since the start. This is the most referenced line on the BTC chart and I think its okay to expect BTC to continue to hold this as time goes on.
The 200W MA (Orange) and logarithmic trend (Green) are conveniently right next to each other at the time of writing ($20,000)…
Now to put this all simply all using TA: BTC is very likely to drop to the $29,000 - $31,000 support area & touch the 100W MA. If this area FAILS to hold, BTC will drop to $20,000 - $21,000 and we can say this will be the bottom or it will be over for BTC…
Is it as simple as that?
We all know BTC runs the show so this is a good reference for the majority of the market.
Thanks for reading!
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This chart really tells all.
Zoom out.
When have we went higher in a bull market after losing 50 Week MA?
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Another amazing view of how this isn't like any other BTC bull run pullback, be cautious.
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Anytime BTC has closed a 1 month candle below the 10 month MA, it dropped at least -47% from the breaking point. it has occurred 4 other times in history. if this is the case, BTC may need to land around 22k-25k before starting another strong bullish trend.