Good morning, traders. I am getting a lot of unfortunate direct messages from traders who are attempting to trade in and out of the current shorter-term price movement and losing significant sums of capital in the process. As I have continued to warn, this chop is not the time to be doing that. Even really good traders understand they are pushing their luck when attempting to do so. The best advice is to zoom out and get a feel for the bigger picture, without all the sideways chop (noise).
If we zoom out to the 4H chart, we can clearly see an ascending triangle printing, contrary to the rising wedge narrative that is permeating TV and CT. We can see volume dropping off as price nears the triangle's resistance which is what we expect to see. Additionally, the 21 EMA continues supporting price. I am watching the 4H RSI for a break through the descending resistance line drawn. That does appear to be coming sooner rather than later as Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing the bottom. Right now, I believe this TF and pattern are what traders should be watching. The target based on the height of the triangle is around $6000.
Zooming into the 15 minute TF, I have the current wave structure that I am watching play out. I am not overly confident about this count, however, but some things do line up. The target based on the height of the red flag (descending channel) is just above the R2 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 3 target. The target based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the flag is the R4 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 5 target that would complete this wave 3. It also targets the top of the ascending channel that may be printing. So what does all this mean? It means that we could see wave 3 extend up to $6000.
Alternatively, as we have been discussing in Discord, we could also see price range trade sideways within the parallel channel that is drawn. In that case, the current sideways movement would most likely be wave 4 which means we would have to recount our waves. The target based on the height of the parallel channel (trading range) would still be $6000 and that would then complete wave 5 rather than wave 3. Importantly, it doesn't really matter which count is correct at this time, only that they all appear to be agreeing with the pattern's suggestion that we have more upside left to complete. After the move up, we can then reassess the wave count to get a better understanding if that was the final wave up or if there is one more left. We are currently seeing potential hidden bullish divergence printing on the daily chart with RSI still oversold. This most likely won't be confirmed until tomorrow's candle at the earliest. Of course if price takes off higher before then, the divergence won't materialize at all.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
If we zoom out to the 4H chart, we can clearly see an ascending triangle printing, contrary to the rising wedge narrative that is permeating TV and CT. We can see volume dropping off as price nears the triangle's resistance which is what we expect to see. Additionally, the 21 EMA continues supporting price. I am watching the 4H RSI for a break through the descending resistance line drawn. That does appear to be coming sooner rather than later as Stoch RSI is oversold and nearing the bottom. Right now, I believe this TF and pattern are what traders should be watching. The target based on the height of the triangle is around $6000.
Zooming into the 15 minute TF, I have the current wave structure that I am watching play out. I am not overly confident about this count, however, but some things do line up. The target based on the height of the red flag (descending channel) is just above the R2 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 3 target. The target based on the height of the flagpole leading up to the flag is the R4 pivot which puts it near the expected wave 5 target that would complete this wave 3. It also targets the top of the ascending channel that may be printing. So what does all this mean? It means that we could see wave 3 extend up to $6000.
Alternatively, as we have been discussing in Discord, we could also see price range trade sideways within the parallel channel that is drawn. In that case, the current sideways movement would most likely be wave 4 which means we would have to recount our waves. The target based on the height of the parallel channel (trading range) would still be $6000 and that would then complete wave 5 rather than wave 3. Importantly, it doesn't really matter which count is correct at this time, only that they all appear to be agreeing with the pattern's suggestion that we have more upside left to complete. After the move up, we can then reassess the wave count to get a better understanding if that was the final wave up or if there is one more left. We are currently seeing potential hidden bullish divergence printing on the daily chart with RSI still oversold. This most likely won't be confirmed until tomorrow's candle at the earliest. Of course if price takes off higher before then, the divergence won't materialize at all.
Every day, we have a choice to act positively or negatively, so if you get a chance, do something decent for someone today which could be as simple as sharing a nice word with them. You just might change their day, or even their life.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
