Hello all my dear friend Thanks god and Trading View that helped me to find many friends from all around the world in last 2 month and thanks all of you for your kind messages and comments,many of you really helped me to found some signs and patterns better in last analyses.How soon we arrived here,so let's start BTC RealTime #3. Have a great information for you,hope i think right about this. Last week as you remember we break that huge triangle and reach our downward channel bottom that started from 10k,so many days i was so confused about that beak out, i expected more fall after break out of that triangle until i discovered maybe that wasn't a TRIANGLE at all.Maybe this is a Descending Triangle.if that is correct then all things come logical.we can continue this wedge to our long term yellow channel(from 2015) bottom then bounce up the wedge and ... . So let's take a look to this wedge. First this is not a single wedge,we have 2 wedge here,first one from 20k and second one from 12.8k in Feb.so i attach them here : First one: And then second one: now take a look at both of them to find out exactly how they finish this bear market together: What here is matter that all of these are just a possibility and with this weakness that we saw in last days it's have lot chance to move us much lower and this idea failed or you need to understand this fact that maybe sooner we break first wedge and continue market by second wedge.If it happen then we see another Great DEC,soon. So it's enough long term expectation,forget it now and let's back to our BTC RealTime and short term analyse. As i said in my last BTC RealTime,after a sharp fall in our downward channel(can't say it parallel channel) from 10k we had a little bounce that was a weak one,but by that bounce we made a symmetrical triangle.I explained it last day but i say again. This kind of triangles are usually continuation pattern but we had situations that this triangles made a reversal and changed trend but can't count on it.Beside,this kind of formations usually take few month to complete and are long term formations. On the other side we have lot mix signs in MACD and RSI.in MACD you can see bearish reversal sign in 4HR but in RSI you can find signs that show regular bearish div and little hidden bullish div ,together.yeah all of those make me confused and i try to monitor more rather that talk about them.But what is important and clear is lack of Volume on both side that caused all market uncertainly and all uncertainly in market caused this low vol situation.Last day we even had a Perfect H&S but it failed and we hold our support yet.but for sure if we don't see enough money in market we will drop again to last support.All of these caused to i think more about this triangle but as a Pennant that will push us lower eventually.but if BTC want to hold value of that LONG TERM Wedge i mentioned in first of this TA,need to avoid of sharp falling bellow 5900. I made a TELEGRAM channel after your many requests about it,finally.but what you need to know is that i am little busy and i will publish TAs there just after channel reach to 100 follower,you can join it from this link ,below: t.me/peymana71 I will update this like always as soon as i find new sign.I want to thank all of you again for your supports and togetherness.Please leave a Like and Comment for me,if you like my work and idea. Best Regards Peyman A
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Hi my DEAR friends,i'm back. Last day after i published this idea i decided to take a break at least for a day,so i fixed my stop little lower than my entry point and and set an alarm for 6655.After i notified about this beautiful bounce i came back again. So i checked the chart and i found out that we broke that triangle with an iH&S,finally.After that, i realized head and shoulders work fine if i don't monitor them.lol Now we stop below of an another important resistance,but not the most important one.now we have less momentum in over way but it's not bad,indicators need to recover a little and then try to break 6800 resistance.even it's not bad that we test our last resistance as a support now but it's lot better that we recover above 6650. Last day i talked about a hidden bullish div in RSI,now i am more sure about it.BTC climbed with that to here and i'm pretty sure that we will hit our downward trend line roof,soon.but let's not turn very hopeful,as i said we have most important resistance in our way that place around 7000-7150. Now it's time to fix my stop again.so i will move it to around 6400. Sorry guys for my last 24hr absence,but i was little tired of that boring style of market,i will answer all messages now. Thanks all of people joined my telegram channel(@ t.me/peymana71),i will start publish there as soon as it reach to its goals. Have a great trades and profits Good Luck
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Forgot to say this. Last bounce help btc to jump above ichimoku 1hr and enter it in 4hr. It's very good signal almost always but break th ichimoku 4h is the best. In RSI i expected to more recover but i see strong recovery signs in it.This is a sign that show us we will reach full recovery in above 7650 area. Even in MACD 4h we have signs of strength but just in shorter time frames we can see sign of bearish reversal that show us recovery process.
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Even if you zoom out and look at triangle in 4hr time frame you can see it in form of and bigger iH&S,but it test neckline twice before break out.in my opinion it's another sign that show us we will make an impact to trend line soon,but like last weeks and last boring fractal situation between 7056-7750,it can fall easy after that impact.so be careful and don't forget stop-loss. Remember.when we can say certainly that downward is over that we break 7150 and test it as support successfully and continue to climb up after that.
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Big fight here but no result yet.as i said before we stay above 6650yet but after 2 failed effort for breaking resistance now we loose more momentum and need some vol to push BTC higher,if that not happen we will go lower inside this new trend line i draw hereto full fuel and try from little lower.in the other side we need a little spike to print a bullish crossover in MACD D time frame that i wait for it from long time ago(BTC Realtime #1) and that can be a good sign.at least untill now we BTC printed good candles in 4hr and a bear flag,almost.i think we will atack to resistance again soon,but if this time can't win the battle,certainly we will go little lower.
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As i said we dropped little and it have more room for more drop.i expect another drop to at least trend line i draw here and after that maybe we bounce up again.
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when i look chart now,more realize about its similarities with last 7050-7750 and it's not good at all.now we have less good RSI now and bearish signs in MACD short frames.but we made a bullish crossover in MACD D time frame,finally.
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Now you can understand it easier why i said this is just similar to last 7050-7750 period. Now as you van see in chart we made a Bullish triangle here in BTC(almost).if this triangle hold,cand move price over the resistance area easy and face to important resistance.
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What a failure.Now you can see similarities i saying from 2days ago,well.if you look better,you can find a H&S too.not good at all.
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Last day here i answered a comment: "when i said i see similarities between this bounce and last one in 7050 area i mean that it's have much possibility to end exactly like that one.anyway i'm prepare for any situation now and wait for big drop to around 4k at least for 3 month.one thing is vey important here is market psychology that don't believe 6k area as bottom now and simply don't buy it. " After one day i pretty sure that i was right.Market just need more blood.last wave couldn't reach to downward channel roof,even.It's what i named it WEAKNESS.All reasons i mentioned before plus World Cup games ,caused it to come weaker that last time. If we continue this fall with this speed,it will stop at red box i draw here.or maybe upper dotted line,but we are near to print a new oversold record in RSI.not good at ALL
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BTC stop exactly by that dotted line but don't have hope for it.we didn't saw a good bounce there and like before this line will hold temporary.Honestly i think it's better to drop more and much more sooner instead of sideways.
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This line still hold as a support but for me this isn't anything except a pennant,now.
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Forgot to say this. I'm out now.My stop activated at 6599 and my trade closed. Now i have not any reason to enter market again.
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Still same as last update.need to bounce over 6300 first then can talk about it.for now,nothing than a temporary support.
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At least there is a try for an iH&S.
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That try,Failed.
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Now just evolved to a "Bearish Wedge"shape Bear Flag.
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And...Worked
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Now go for red area below.
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This way RSI repeat itself and recover for new drop.
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Reaching to potential Stop/Reversal Area.
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Here we are,close to downward channel(from 10k) bottom line.
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This is RSI Daily.you can see we reaching oversold area in it.It's really important area and very potential area for reversal.look at line and dotted line in Rsi.BTC reversed in this area every time entered.
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still fighting with support line,almost similar to last ones but this time have less bearish formation here,this signs tell me that in worst case we did not go lower than red area,before correction of last day drops.
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Look at those,are similar with different sizes.we are in huge support area now and biggest shape here.It's not a fight,It's WAR.just a 1000 btc buy can bounce price higher but temporary.need more trust in market to change the whole way.
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Look at my new idea about MARKET MANIPULATION.I wrote this from long time ago and every time something make me stop to publish this.finally i post it now and all of you need to know manipulators of this market better.they are here among us.
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This formation still is a bearish wedge for me but i start to look at it as a Bullish triangle,maybe.it can be but nothing can't confirm exactly what is it except result that come after it.
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Still same as past but with better outlook and wider.I start to see positive signs in indicators too but lot mix signals here caused it hard to predict.if price move in limits of dotted triangle instead of black lines i will enter market again here,but for now just monitoring it.
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This is what i expect as triangle resistance.Still a huge war between price and SUP/RES.Strong push from both side and if we continue this attacks we will bounce up by this triangle and after that we need to break wedge resistance,if BTC stop by wedge resistance,mean we will come back down again.
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Another impacts to both side.it's have big chance to continue with bigger triangle.
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Another failed attempt to break triangle,still very strong resistance and look even stronger than support below but what we need to know is BTC show much better signs in RSI and MACD and they say that falling in over,at least for short time and a correction.if we turn direction from here it's a very good sign,that i will explain it later.
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When i talk about correction it's not always correction in price,many times we have correction in time with a boring sideway.Look at this chart i post now.when you see RSI 1hr you can see sign of bullish reversal first but after focus on it beside chart and MACD you can find out that this is just a recovery from oversold area to overbought with no big change in price and can fall as soon as it recover enough.
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And finally,BOOOM.now need to see how long it can go.below 6300 don't change anything and need to break that resistance too.
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Now let's look at bigger picture,another triangle here,if we gonna break 6300 we have to use this formation and must hold first black dotted line(old wedge line) and second two blue dotted lines below as a support.if we break them mean our bounce was a fake break out that created with one big buy order.
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Let's do some zoom out.As you see we are close to bullish MACD reversal in 4hr but when look at chart what is shine there is just a Bear Flag or Pennant.So do not get excited soon.
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I said in one of my last updates that if we change over way from there it's an important sign.now i explain it As you remember my this idea first started with 2 huge Wedge and thats dotted line we play around it in last 2 days was that wedges bottom line.if my Huge Wedge idea want to become correct BTC must hold this dotted line first and do not play with it more.lol
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Now we are about to testing this broken line as support.this will give us many clues.
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First one and second one broke and now change again as a resistance.We have nothing now except a fake break out.If can't hold last one we will start again,maybe from lower.
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Now we reaction after reach to over wedge upper trend line and this game bored me to death.I want to give you a simple guide here.if we break this wedge we have another Wedge/Triangle scenario like we had in last hours and moving in limits of this wedge just have one meaning, More Drop. I want to sleep now and i will update as soon as i rest well. Good Luck.
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*over = our
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Is there anything to surprise me?NOPE So finally it's drop and we are in red area now and there isn't any sign of life for BTC yet.It's very bad situation but do't worry,it's last powers of Bears,momentum dying and we should see a correction.I working on new BTC Realtime of this week and back with it soon.
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Guys we have an Update,BTC Realtime #4 arrived. Thanks all of you for joining me and happy me with your kind messages and comments. Best Regards Peyman A
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jOIN ME IN NEW IDEA "BTC REALTIME #4" Thanks god i warn all there about this bounce.
I don't think it's wise to use 5m candle time frames to do your analysis. Unless you are a shootem' from the hip snipper type trader 5min candles are useless. You can jump from one one theory to another to easily.
If you used a min of 1hr candle formations (I would recommend 4H min like any good trader uses) you would have spotted immediately that the breakout was fake.
People are talking about corrections to 6.8 even 7K ranges is absolutely bizarre and hilarious. Not only are we going down we will be going down a lot further than 5K.
Some of the bigger holders and ardent maximalists on BTC privately have been saying in very close circles that the run up to 20K was manipulated and fake and that BTC is still extremely over valued for what it is at these current price levels.
How many days now and BTC can't even close a single 1hr candle above $6,200. There just isn't any interest or buyer support for BTC or crypto right now in the REAL WORLD. I know HODLR's hate this, but HODLR's need to understand right now the only thing BTC and Crypto (with the exception of maybe XRP that actually is being used for other purposes) is being used for is casino type gambling AKA "trading".
So yes the price will continue to drop and keep dropping unless some foreseeable breakthrough in terms of a REAL use case is made. Because right now the fundamentals are looking extremely weak at best.
If you truly want to buy BTC as an investment (why would you?). I would stay in cash and wait. Be patient the 1K-3K range is coming and it will be this year.
Otherwise trade it and short the sh%^ out of it right now and then cash out.
Peymana71
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@Jessica_H, Thanks for your wise comment but i don't agree with these unprofessional beliefs about short time frames.I have a long term target and many short terms and use short terms to trade or understand better where we are.Someone can't use them and make wrong Decision with them,yeah but if you want to check or bother yourself to know my style better then you can find out that i used them perfect always.It's your Decision to save your money and enter after BTC reach 1-3k but what you not consider is that in last months that people wait for that prices,a good trader turn every 1BTC to 10BTC at least and this is trading.3 weeks ago i had 11 follower here that short BTC from 7600 with my calls based short time frames.one of them, that closed around 6500,earned 10K with just 10x leverage.So you can't Generalize what is good for you to everybody.
Yeah agree with you,and never can understand holders of BTC well but have a different vision about crypto and really don't think XRP can really play a good role as Ripple Company want but i was one of early investors on it and simply sold them after lost my believe to it around 1.75$.
Again Thanks for your comment.
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@Jessica_H, Was the breakout from 5k to 20K in the space of couples months back in December bizarre and hilarious? This is Crypto and many will argue that was manipulation but the point is anything can happen. Thanks for your comments though, it is a reminder anyways.
Great work as always dude, I always enjoy catching up on your notes with my morning coffee
I don't like a single thing about this bounce, the lack of follow through and extremely tidy patterns being made just don't sit well with me, I mean just look at this repetition;
Of course there are a few ways to explain the patterns we are seeing here, but a few times indicators didn't support the price action in my opinion, so that combined with some rather creative order book movement I'm inclined to suggest we are seeing a co-ordinated sell off before a big drop. I'm currently pondering that if I don't trust this bounce, how much can I trust the support we came off...
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@MikeLeChat exactly,when i said i see similarities between this bounce and last one in 7050 area i mean that it's have much possibility to end exactly like that one.anyway i'm prepare for any situation now and wait for big drop to around 4k at least for 3 month.one thing is vey important here is market psychology that don't believe 6k area as bottom now and simply don't buy it.
Anyway,Thanks for your thoughtful comment.
If you used a min of 1hr candle formations (I would recommend 4H min like any good trader uses) you would have spotted immediately that the breakout was fake.
People are talking about corrections to 6.8 even 7K ranges is absolutely bizarre and hilarious. Not only are we going down we will be going down a lot further than 5K.
Some of the bigger holders and ardent maximalists on BTC privately have been saying in very close circles that the run up to 20K was manipulated and fake and that BTC is still extremely over valued for what it is at these current price levels.
How many days now and BTC can't even close a single 1hr candle above $6,200. There just isn't any interest or buyer support for BTC or crypto right now in the REAL WORLD. I know HODLR's hate this, but HODLR's need to understand right now the only thing BTC and Crypto (with the exception of maybe XRP that actually is being used for other purposes) is being used for is casino type gambling AKA "trading".
So yes the price will continue to drop and keep dropping unless some foreseeable breakthrough in terms of a REAL use case is made. Because right now the fundamentals are looking extremely weak at best.
If you truly want to buy BTC as an investment (why would you?). I would stay in cash and wait. Be patient the 1K-3K range is coming and it will be this year.
Otherwise trade it and short the sh%^ out of it right now and then cash out.