Bitcoin has been performing exceptionally well over the last months. This cycle is the first cycle where Bitcoin has made a new all-time high (ATH) before the halving, instead of after. The most likely cause for this are the massive ETF inflows which boosted the price to new highs.
Historically, Bitcoin has always peaked in Q4 of the next year after the halving. In this case, it would mean that BTC will peak in Q4 of 2025. Seeing that we're already at 70k in Q1 of 2024, this could lead to some issues.
There's a few possible outcomes and explanations that I want to share. 1: This cycle will be similar to 2016 and we will continue to go up in a relatively stable straight line until Q4 of 2025. Bitcoin could reach >300k because of the continued buying power from ETF's. 2: This cycle is outperforming the past cycles, which is not possible due to diminishing returns theory (bull and bear markets will be less extreme). Considering that we "should" top in Q4 of 2025, we will see a long period of sideways/bearish price action in order to get the white line under the blue and purple lines. Top will be in Q4 of 2025, but a lot lower. Think 150k. 3: Diminishing returns theory will hold, but we will top much earlier than Q4 2025. In another analysis that I recently made I discussed the fact that BTC on average tops 40 weeks after a new all-time high has been made. This would lead to a cycle top in Q4 of 2024. With Diminishing returns still in play I'd guess we can top somewhere between 100k-150k.
It's going to be interesting to see which historically accurate theories will be broken this cycle, seeing that this is the first time that BTC made a new ATH before the halving. Best case scenario would be a long cycle with a price as high as possible.
What is your view on a new ATH before the halving? Which scenario do you deem most likely? Share your thoughts.