Bitcoin just hit a new all time high against the USD pre halving! The bitcoin spot etfs have shifted the paradigm and we now find ourselves in unprecedented times. Considering that, for all I know the correction may have already seen the lowest it will go before we resume bull, but if history can tell us anything, it’s that it’s very common to see multiple 30-40% dips here and there during the bull market and this very well could be the beginning of one of those corrections. If so, a 40% dip could take price roughly back to the 40k one,, which would be a convenient zone for it to correct to as it would likely retest the weekly 50ma there as they would probably be both arriving at 40k around roughly the same time, that would be an excellent place for a bounce, of course should a black swan event occur sometime near there we could even see an unexpected flash crash wick even further below that maybe even 50-60% but the probability of something like that is much much smaller. If we were to correct the usual 30-40% or even let’s say we start having diminishing corrections and only correct 15-25%, in doing so, we will actually be simultaneously forming a handle to the text book picture perfect cup bitcoins price action just finished forming once it reached the new ath. Because of the possibility of such a hypothetical scenario currently being in. Play,I went ahead and drew a rough guesstimating of what I would expect the handle to look like should we form one here. Again, this is a completely arbitrary guesstimate, so if we do form one, it could be much smaller than the one I’ve randomly drawn here in red. Whether it takes shorter or longer for us to finish the handle if one does form, should not alter the potential breakout target that it would have by much, and as we can see if we broke out around the time the rough estimate one I have drawn ends the target should be well over 120k. Because of the zone where price action has recently gone and now been rejected from is so close to our previous ath zone, we also now on the bearish side of things have. Potential triple top in play. We went up in price at such. Fast and hyperparabolic rate that the argument for this being the bull markets blow off top is actually a possibility, a very slim, low probability possibility, but still a possibility none the less, in which case, the triple top argument is able to at least be a possibility. Which is perfect for the whales and market makers because that will sew just enough uncertainty in the market that when we do get to the bottom of the current correction you will probably have permabears coming out of hibernation to claim the bull market top is already in and we are going much lower. However, I personally don’t think the top is in because we never got the signal on the pi cycle top indicator. I plan on taking d vantage of any correction we get here by accumulating, laddering in small buys around 20%, 30% , and then slightly bigger buys at 40% if we get it. Also if we’re lucky enough to get some sort of 50-60% flash crash from a black swan I will ladder in even bigger buys then as well. If somehow we were to get a flash crash that went as deep as 80% - 90% at that point then I would have to consider that it was a bull market top, however that would then mean that the follow up bear market freeware’s would be extremely short lived and we’d be right back into the bull market. High has never happened before, but hey, with thee new bitcoin spot etfs approved a lot of unprecedented price action is suddenly possible. Again this whole cup n handle idea in the first place isnt set in stone yet and theres. Chance we’ve already had our full correction even. I think judging by the past in btc’s history, the most likely thing to occur here though would be a 30-41% correction. *not financial advice*
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also a correction to 40k would likely be an exact retest of the top trendline of the purple channel we broke up from (not shown here) that I posted in previous bitcoin chart ideas. So you would likely have the double reinforced support of the weekly 50ma and the top trendline of the channel to provide excellent bounce support in that zone.
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We technically did form the tiniest handle ever on the 4hr chart, but its so small and insignificant I’m not sure I wanna count that. SO if BTC keeps pumping here Im guessing this cup and handle pattern is likely not gonna come to fruition. NO big deal though because plenty of other patterns that have validated are calling for lots more upside.
@unbeldi, the large majority of the moves it has made in the past 2 years have all been after breaking out of silly patterns that foretold those exact prices Bitcoin would hit, g back through history and back last year when people were calling for it to go lower the patterns said it was gonna hit these heights. In face the next target for bitcoin is 82k because of a channel it broke up from quite awhile ago.
unbeldi
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@DrDovetail, your cup already had its handle at 38,5 k. Elliott wave explains it all, and much better.
DrDovetail
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@unbeldi, true but that was just a smaller cup and handle inside this current larger one. Now that bitcoin is finally having its pullback, the cup and handle pattern on this chart is still very much a valid one…I just need to readjust the rim line and give it a slightly upward slant. I don’t use Elliot waves that often because they can be somewhat arbitrary.
unbeldi
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@DrDovetail, well, there is nothing arbitrary about Elliott waves, after all it’s how markets function, Nature’s Law, and it all depends who does it and how much time they are willing to invest. C&H really are just fragments, fractals, of Elliot waves, like to many other simple patterns.
DrDovetail
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@unbeldi, I do respect elliot waves overall, I just mean that a lot of times elliot waves involve a lot of guesswork as to where the next waves will start and end. Although I did indeed do some guesswork when I original posted this initial idea, thats why I called it purely speculative at the time, once a pattern becomes valid and then validates its breakout it usually is much more precise about where the target is going to head and usually every elliot wave trader I’ve followed always tends to give completely arbitrary guesses as to where things start and end with a high. Percentage of failure. I first learned about elliot wave from Haejin Lee but after he got so many wave counts wrong I realized it probably wasn’t the method for me. I will say once you look left on a chart that’s already formed its clear to see the elliot Wav patterns play out beautifully, and I agree with you that the chart patterns are indeed fragments of them, much respect to you if you can utilize the elliot waves for future price action better than Haejin Lee and many other elliot wave trader I have watched, it is just not my wheel house but I greatly respect anyone who can use them efficiently so if you are one of those you have my respect.
unbeldi
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@DrDovetail, I do sympathize with your assessment. It ain’t simple or quick. It is easy to get too self confident because as humans we don’t seem to be able to leave our emotions out of the analysis. But that is why Elliott waves still work. I often get the comment that if these waves were true everyone would have figured it out by now, and every trader would be wealthy.