I believe Bitcoin is between 20% and 40% into the 2017 bull run.
I refer readers to my first idea on the subject, Bitcoin Reality -
It is important to note the following:
1. Always use a logarithmic chart for Bitcoin. If there is any phenomenon that should be charted log instead of linear, it is Bitcoin!
2. Compare the long term log chart movements from Bitcoin's history with today. Bitcoin has a unique supply / demand dynamic. Read more in the original post. My preference is for comparing the first part of the 2013 run-up with today, as we are in a similar moment fundamentally (see original post for more details).
3. Do not over-think on short time scales. I listed a few examples of rational and reasonable trades that have failed over the past few weeks in . There were many more and there are a lot more to come. Look for yourself. In 2013 there was a bear trap of 50% in the second part of the run-up, when Bitcoin dropped from around $700 to $350 and came back again within a week before blowing past $1000. We have seen nothing of that scale yet, but it will likely happen at least once (with several more mid-size examples) before the definitive 2017 all time high is set.
Good luck everyone.
Trade closed manually
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Although Bitcoin may well carry on further, my personal investment has done enough to warrant a close.
Although Bitcoin may well carry on further, my personal investment has done enough to warrant a close. Out.
davevandewalle
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Why do you recommend logarithmic charts instead of linear for BTC?
Also, any long-term price target?
BRRD
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@davevandewalle, log scale is generally better as it is used to measure relative performance, meaning performance in percentage terms, which is what market participants are interested in generally and what affects trading decisions and governs emotions.
I think it is also particularly better in Bitcoin's case as the proportion of market participants who are not seasoned traders is much higher than in traditional markets, leading to even stronger emotion. There is also a strong sense that Bitcoin use may be growing exponentially given that there are still such a huge untapped potential markets and users. Given this potential and Bitcoin's strictly limited supply it would be much better to assess growth in exponential terms, long time scales of which can be charted better with more balance between the lowest and highest prices using log charts.
Very difficult to say for the upcoming price target (which will be hit before the end of June I believe) but somewhere between 6k and 9k is on the cards.
I keep coming back, with BTC, to the 21,000,000 cap. Then I do the math about...could it be bigger than Apple? Bigger than the GDP of a small country? Etc. So 6000, even 9000 wouldn't get it near the market cap of Apple. Maybe eclipsing the GDP of Bolivia or somewhere...don't know.