For a couple of weeks now, BTC's volatility has been very low. Even so low that the Dow Jones is even more volatile, which has only happened 3 times before in history.
The first time this has occurred was a couple of days before the final 2018 sell-off, which led to a 50% drop in BTC's price and eventually led to the final bottom of the bear market.
The second time this happened was in the Summer of 2020, where it signaled the start of the most recent crypto bull-market with a 35% bull move.
We're now experiencing the third time this has ever happened. The market is preparing itself for another historical move, whether it's going to be up or down remains to be seen. All I know is that the huge incoming move is favoring the bears because we're still in a bear market, just like in 2018.
It's hard to say when this big price move will occur. Tomorrow's CPI report might be the catalyst where the market is waiting for.
I would say we go up (DXY looks like it topped for the moment, but you may never know), a rally before the big dump. These weeks seemed to me more like an accumulation for btc. Of course nothing is guaranteed...only time will tell.
Osemka8
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@FoxyK_, historically oversold with 1W divergence, sitting on previous ATH support. Nice chances of going up
wargolynch
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@FreeWithXRP, Looking at EURUSD nearing strong macro support zone, DXY will mostly fakeout and keep ranging forever like any other FX ticker. And this is true of course, unless Europe is nuked.
@FoxyK_, Look at JPY/USD, Weekly or Monthly! It just broke out of a two-decade bear market. It really will depend on if the BOE and ECB will hike rates to/near the Fed Fund Rate. If that does not happen. You can expect the dollar to continue. These rallies don't end until the Fed starts to cut. We are far from that with "Inflation" being felt in the states pretty unevenly. Here in Phoenix, AZ we are still paying 4.99/GAL for regular while the futures are trading around 2.50's. Moreover, a dozen of Eggs are $5 and our car market is still pretty high! It's really hard to build a case for 20k+ BTC when rates are the highest they have been in "cryptocurrency's entire existence."
wargolynch
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@FoxyK_, Why do you care about DXY? Could you please explain the logic behind your reasoning?
wargolynch
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@FoxyK_, I think we'd all really like to understand the significance of USDEUR, USDGBP, USDJPY, USDCNY, etc... on the price of BTCUSD. Please explain...