This is just a quick chart to show that the monthly chart shows an interesting pattern in the stochastic RSI.
It is osciallting with a period of 4 years, what a surprise :) the halvings are also every 4 years, could there be any connection? Hmmm..... XD
If the last cycle repeats, I think we might be headed towards lows in 2019, an 87% correction as in 2014-2015 would yield a lowest low of 2600 USD, with a stable floor in 2019 around 4k.
End of 2019, the halving 2020 will already be propagated and I suspect therefore that BTC will start rising again in late 2019, same as it did in late 2015. Target for the next megacycle is at least 100k per BTC, in 2021-2022.
Hi, I continued your idea, combined with some curves from a previous idea of mine, extrapolated to past the next halving. All the best!
SebastianofMoon
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@darobsta, That is absolutely excellent ! Thanks a lot for your chart, it is way better than mine and it looks like a very good fit. And your target also fits nicely, 100k in 2022 is a very realistic estimate.
darobsta
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@FlaviusTodorius67, thanks! And thanks again for the inspiration!
darobsta
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This is cool. Does it still make sense of you go back further?
I totally agree, with one "but". I don't know if U use or even like EW, but wave counting tells me that decline we're experiencing now is most probably wave 4 of 5 - to compare it to previous cycle, it would be 04-09.2013 correction, with wave 5 still to give us new ATH. Do You also consider it a viable scenario?
SebastianofMoon
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@szmyra, Thanks for the observation. Yes, I do consider it possible: I'm not a specialist in EW theory, however, if BTC told me one thing, then to consider all possibilities, and a wave 5 to a new ATH is indeed possible.
You23
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@FlaviusTodorius67, Wave 5 incoming before the long bear.