Spiritual-Trader

#BTC: PER ASPERA AD ASTRA - Halving In 100 Days!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin has died 380+ times. We have been together through ups and downs. Sometimes we lost money, sometimes we learned. For many, Bitcoin has been the paradise found. The fact is, Bitcoin has NEVER died. Not even once. What fluctuates is the perceived value. And now we stand in front of another surge: it is 100 days until Bitcoin Halving.

Notice that value is not something things have on their own, but rather it is a quality you give to things because they are meaningful to you. Given an otherwise unaltered state of fundamentals, people will hold Bitcoin a lot more meaningful after halving. This is simple logic.

Quality > Quantity. I realized a full-blown volatility /probability analysis will be far more valuable than a classical signal. It can serve to either confirm an existing bias, reveal a new perspective or make you wonder deeper. Therefore, here is our look of what you can expect from Bitcoin in the future.

Short-Term:
  • The 1H and 4H charts signalize a temporary reversion. On both charts, BTC /USD has entered the first standard deviation of respective Bollinger Bands . This typically signalizes a return to the mean, i.e. center of the Bollinger Band .
  • On 1H, the target mean is currently at $8960, but is travelling up quickly to meet the price.
  • On 4H, the situation is the same. On the side note, we are approaching a support at $9180 in the form of the Upper 200 MA Bollinger Band (purple line). If we break it, the price should travel to the mean with a 90% accuracy. The MA is currently at $8300, but is travelling up to meet the price.
  • There is enough volatility for a mid-term price action. Quad CCI values are slowly approaching the first deviation from above.
  • Trend is your Friend. Be very careful when betting against it.
  • An ideal place to buy the trend was on January 5th-6th when the price broke into the purple band from below. This signalized a reversion, which, lo' and behold, happened. It is likely we will travel up to touch the upper purple Bollinger Band , as that is the top of our trading range.

Long-Term:
  • This is where stuff gets interesting. Longer-term Bollinger Bands on the 1D chart are finally narrowing down after the huge run we had back in June.
  • Narrow Bollinger Bands mean low energy. Low energy means big potential. Big potential means it's easy for a new trend to start.
  • 100-period and 200-period volatility on the 1W is still needs time to decrease in energy and increase in potential. Further compression is more than probable. If you load up 50, 100 and 200 MA Bollinger Bands on the 1W chart, you'll see what I'm talking about. The bands have been in compression, and with each day they are gaining more potential to expansion.
  • Value. Value. Value. If fundamentals of the perceived value change, the price follows. This may be caused by a financial crisis, a worldwide instability, a war, a virus, or by any big event like Bitcoin Halving. If fundamentals change, the price changes too. Halving is happening in 100 days and it is your clearest beacon in a see of dark, if nothing else.
  • If you believe in the future of crypto, do not get intimidated by short-term volatility .

And what is your outlook on Bitcoin? Tell us in the comments below! Until then...

Commodity Channel Index , custom volatility indicators and Bollinger Bands and their derivatives were used in the technical analysis . This is not a financial advice and you agree to take 100% responsibility.

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