One big déjà vu, once again! I was not even surprised when i looked on my phone and seeing that dump again. While thinking i can enjoy my Sunday afternoon walk in the sun, because we always see the real action start very late at night on Sunday's. Obviously not this time. A coincidence maybe?, i don't think so. The previous time they did this, was during Christmas, where the volume was low as well. We have seen these moves so many times already, don't think anyone is surprised anymore.
To the TA' part now, have things changed now? They most certainly did. This dump was big and violent again, making the chances quite small for a recovery from the current levels around 3700/3800. So chances are much bigger at the moment for a drop to the 3600/3500 than going back to the 4000 from here. Today's move is quite similar to the one we had in Dec during Christmas, making a similar big drop with a second drop testing the 3600 support levels. Only a move above 3850ish would increase the chances again for the bulls.
Now a big correction was to be expected, i kept mentioning and showing it a few times, but it was hard to say if it would start at 4000 or at 4400. But one thing is for sure, i did not expect a dump like this again. Corrections after a big rally are usually fast and big, but not like this. Would have been normal to see a big drop to like 3900/4000, than a sideways movement before doing another leg down to 3600/3850. Now we simply skipped all the support levels and dumped to levels in one shot. As you can see at the blue line on the left, the ones i showed the past week or so, we could see a right shoulder form now, but that has become less likely now as well. Unless we really see it turning up again from these levels. That would be quite remarkable. I think it's more likely to see a move towards 3850ish and then another drop to the lows and probably even below them, like the purple line is showing.
When zooming out a bit more and look on the left, we can see that thick red line was again rejected again. We even dropped back inside that possible triangle, which is a very bad sign usually. Bad thing now is, it could be that big ABC' i was calling for since the Dec low, is already done. Normally we should have seen it get above the previous high, but it does not always happen. On the other hand, we did have a clear 5 wave move up from the 3350 to the 4200, which is usually bullish. Problem is, this big dump messed up everything making this very confusing and TA' not very useful at this point. So i really need to see what the coming day or two will happen first, to be able to make a better prediction. It's just too soon to say that the whole rally is completely over and that we drop to new lows again.
Only logical thing i can see is this for the coming day or 2:
So it will probably be an important week or two. The 4200 level has become a huge level now. Meaning if the market can get close to it once again, it will probably mean 5K prices, quite sure of that. I don't think it should happen more than 2 weeks. But if we are not able to get close anymore and brake the 3500ish, than we will probably see an attack at the lows again, with all the big dangerous that come with it.
If we see a break of the 3700/3800, i will try to update this, to give a bit more specific direction. Maybe some alts can give us a few signs as well tomorrow.
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Previous analysis:
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Still following that fractal, now we could see some more sideways action before heading down again towards 3600. If the 3850 breaks, then something else is going on
A lot of ppl think that we are still in wave 4, and more leg down with a new LL coming, what do you think about that ?
botje11
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@KIRYLKAZLOU, that is still an option yes. The if ABC was wave 4, so the whole question past weeks was, is it just a correction up and going towards new lows again or was it the start of a new rally. I think a break of 3450/80 will be an important level
BitOoda_LLC
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Two weeks ago, we wrote in our morning piece (medium.com/@BitOoda/2-11-2019-co...) how thinly traded markets can act in regards to large volume and price moves, like the one roughly 24 hours ago. “The market at present appears to be very illiquid. As a result, prices stay in a tight range for days, only to gap 200-300 points in either direction. That’s exactly what one would expect when an entity needs to either buy or sell any significant volume in a thinly-traded marketplace.” Our Chief Derivatives Strategist, Dr . Ilya Kurland, could not have stated that more precisely. He further wrote, “Our downside target is in the $2400-$2800 range. A short covering rally may easily take BTC to $4030-$4300 cluster of previous highs”.
As you can see from the chart, BTC SHORTS have certainly lightened up since the rally from the $3,600 level that started roughly 7 days ago.
With the price collapse that occurred over the weekend, you can see from this chart that BTC SHORT INTEREST did NOT increase. One would surmise that this weekend’s price action was initiated from BTC longs liquidating their inventory, with the market not easily absorbing their selling pressure. As we have stated time and time again, we are in a BEAR market, and strength should get sold into.
We can see clearly now that the ~$4,200 BTC level has formed RESISTANCE, and until that level gets broken to the upside, we will remain BEARISH of the crypto space.
dralerte
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Then again, we can (flash) pump (even harder)... Really mess with their heads ;)
#foodforyourthoughts
Cheers!
Odin-J
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Final C wave. That makes the 4th wave complete. And then long way tot complete the 5th wave.
xrayer
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@ChenariJawad, you mean the 4th wave in global down trend?