ProwdClown
Education

LEARN FROM MY MISTAKE!!!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
NOTE: From this day forward there will be more CLARITY in regards to everything mentioned below while posting publications.

ALSO: No more "assumptions" we are in a certain Wyckoff Schematic without 100% CONFIRMATION that particular Schematic is in play and providing "SUPPORT" for that confirmation. Yes, there have been several times in previous publications where I said something along the line of, "If we go down to a certain price, it will mean we've been in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic since first week in March all along. Which means we would be looking for a 'Selling Climax' to occur to mark the beginning of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic." What I should have stated in my recent publications is, "I'm NOT sure if we're in accumulation or distribution schematic until we see confirmation." At least that's what I should have said BEFORE we have experienced what we have experienced over these past 11 months thus far.

The most important point is we have LEARNED from this EXPERIENCE of repeated phases of re-accumulation from September, 2015 to December, 2017 coming to a "Buying Climax" to mark the beginning of Phase E in a Distribution Schematic. We cannot assume a Distribution Schematic will begin with Phase A "AFTER" a long period of multiple re-accumulation. We MUST assume "re-accumulation" cannot go on forever. It must come to a "CLIMAX" at some point for distribution and end with a "Selling Climax" to mark the beginning of Accumulation and Re-Accumulation once again.

After what we have experienced these past 11 months, we can conclude if we drop 60+ percent from ATH (All Time High), it's LIKELY we are in a Distribution Schematic and all up and down waves we see afterward will simply be multiple markups followed by throwbacks to stair step down till we see serious capitulation like what we're see now. The capitulation we experience at the end of Phase E in a Distribution Schematic will be the "Selling Climax" event of an Accumulation Schematic. The price level we were at before the capitulation begins will be identified as "Preliminary Support" for the Accumulation Schematic that's about to begin with the capitulation (Selling Climax). This also means we will fall into a lower trading range for the purpose of accumulation before we see a "Spring" and flow into repeated phases of re-accumulation up to a "Buying Climax" to mark the beginning of another potential Distribution Schematic.

So, if you post publications with "opinions" for others to consider just as I do, LEARN FROM MY MISTAKE!!! There was a LOT to gain from this experience we just went through with this distribution schematic (signaled by a 60+ percent drop from ATH ).

Yes, I missed this coming down as much as it did. It bothers me just as it bothers others. Unfortunately, I cannot be correct 100% of the time. All the more reason for implementing a "Stop Loss" to provide more options to buy lower if it should drop substantially lower.

Time for a more serious discussion to evaluate what can be done to protect capital by keeping losses small and gains large. It "should" be a "given" that NO ONE will be able to read every trade correctly UNLESS you OR the group you are in are the one(s) manipulating the market. Since most of us are not in a group manipulating the market to our advantage, it would behove us to lay down rules to keep losses small and gains large while trying to determine what composite groups are doing to manipulate the market to their advantage.

Knowing what your indicators are telling you in any given time frame is only "part" of a solution to keep losses small and gains large. Another MORE IMPORTANT "part" is knowing how to setup a stop loss on your exchange and get in the habit of setting them up habitually. Knowing what price to set them up should also be discussed. Even when an "investor" is using the "Breakup Into Thirds Strategy" a stop loss should be set at some price level as a precaution to protect capital from serious loss to create another option to possibly recoup those losses by making entry at a lower level.

If one does not know how to setup a stop loss, there are YouTube videos on the subject for different exchanges. I recommend practicing setting up a stop loss on your exchange(s) with as small amount of a trade your exchange(s) will allow a couple of times to make sure you know how to set it up and that it works properly. If your trade is a large amount, it may not be a bad idea to create a screenshot of your stop loss in case it does not work properly to file a complaint with your exchange(s). I also recommend practicing setting up TRAILING STOPS on your exchange(s). A "Trailing Stop" can be a valuable tool to use after taking some profits near the top and holding a small percentage to ride it up as high as possible for more potential gains.

What is Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA , Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI used for? To use as a tool to see if we are currently experiencing upward or downward pressure in any time frame. It can also be used to "estimate" WHEN a period of upward or downward pressure may come to a close and reverse to opposite pressure within a particular time frame.

Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA does "NOT" tell us what price the pair may or may not be going to while experiencing upward or downward pressure in a given time frame.

What rules should we set to keep losses small and gains large in regards to the indicators (Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA , Stochastic RSI "merged" with Phoenix ARI )???

Does the 7-Day, 10-Day and 14-Day Time Frames show upward pressure or downward pressure? If we have to look at even higher time frames, let's do so. A long term investor would place more focus on the 7-Day, 10-Day and 14-Day Time Frames more so than the Day Trader. However, the Day Trader can still use information provided in those time frames that could potentially affect their Daily trades in lower time frames. I've included the 7-Day, 10-Day and 14-Day TF's below to "reflect" upon in order for us all to learn a valuable lesson in regards to a bear market that drops down 60+ percent from All Time High ( ATH ).

7-Day:


10-Day:


14-Day:


I think we should give heed to the following time frames collocated together to get an idea of WHEN downward pressure may potentially takeover in a bear market AFTER seeing an alert signal of caution in the 7-Day, 10-Day and 14-Day Time Frames . Those time frames used to see WHEN the alert for potential downward pressure may BEGIN are the 12h, Daily (24h) and 2-Day (48h). When those three time frames show sign of POTENTIAL downward pressure incoming we should give heed to their signal and trade accordingly as a Day Trader. For example: Have a look at the indicators in the 12h, Daily and 2-Day charts below.

12h TF:


Daily (24h) TF:


2-Day (48h) TF: The same notes within the text bubble on the Daily (24h) TF also applies to this 2-Day (48h) TF. So, I did not edit the text bubble in this 2-Day TF.


I may add to this publication over time. Feel free to post comments, advice, charts, publications, etc...



Comment: I'm about to post 3 charts. I've posted this chart before a few months back in another publication. Thought it would be appropriate to post it in this publication but break it up into 3 charts for easier viewing. These charts will include a LOT of FIB's. The coordinates on each FIB is the ATH (All Time High) on that particular run-up and the ATL (All Time Low of $2.22).

This first chart focuses on the first two "Buying Climaxes" that resulted in a drop just below the 0.236 FIB.

Chart #1


This second chart focuses on what FIB each dump fell to after each "LOCAL" All Time High. You will notice the first drop after the "Sign of Strength" in Phase C and D fell to the 0.618 FIB.

Just as we have multiple Re-Distribution events AFTER a buying climax in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic that are identified with multiple mark ups and throw backs, we also have multipleof Accumulation Schematic to Phase E which resulted in multiple RE-ACCUMULATION EVENTS in this Accumulation Schematic. Phase A of this Accumulation Schematic began on January 8, 2015 with a Selling Climax. The Re-Distribution we saw

Chart #2:


The purpose of Chart #3 is to show current location of the 0.236 FIB and current price action so we can compare it to previous "Buying Climaxes" that resulted in falling just below their 0.236 FIB.

Chart #3:

Comment: Hopefully, this gives a better VISUAL of what I mean by we are looking for the "Selling Climax" to mark the BEGINNING of Phase A in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.

Comment: Here's a Close-up view of the Accumulation Schematic and each of it's phases back in 2012:



Here are details about each phase in that Accumulation Schematic:



Here's a Close-up view of the Accumulation Schematic and each of it's phases back in 2015:

Comment: In this link to a screenshot you will see an example of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic in the LOWER RIGHT HAND CORNER:

https://i.imgur.com/G8y6yRT.png
Comment: Added a few more details incase someone is having a hard time grasping what WHERE we are in the Wyckoff Schematic and WHAT we're looking for to mark the beginning of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic with a Selling Climax. We will have a better idea of where "Preliminary Support" will be once we have a "Selling Climax" confirmed.

Why is it important to know where "Preliminary Support" is located? Because that is where our "Automatic Rally" should come up to after we find bottom in a "Selling Climax."

Comment: Daily TF:

Tthe Daily (24h) TF seems to indicate downward pressure remaining potentially until Sunday, November 18th. However, this does not necessarily mean we will go down to the $4,790 price point on my chart. The main purpose of this post is to show how I'm "estimating" the possibility of downward pressure ending on or around November 18th by judging according to the current trajectory of the lines within Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA.

Comment: 4h TF:

Comment: By the way, Godmode mode only identifies WHEN we will experience upward or downward pressure and/or energy. It does not tell us WHERE the price is going. The $4,790 Price Point may not be hit here or at all. That price point was placed there from history on wicks from "lows" and its proximity to the 0.236 FIB at $4,642.87
Comment: 18h (1080m) TF:



9h (540m) TF: I left the SAME content in the text bubbles as what you've seen in the 18h (1080m) TF since they look similar. But the 9h has progressed a little more than the 18h time frame. I would be surprised to see us fall deeply here because of the current level of the Blue LSMA. Sure, it's not impossible for it to fall further. It just doesn't look as likely.

Comment: 4-Day TF:

Comment: 2h TF:

Looks like more downward pressure likely for the next 8 to 12 hours when looking at the 2h TF. I may post another update close to the end of this 8 to 12 hours.

I'm currently trying to deal with the realization a friend of mine and his wife lost their lives in a car wreck about 48 hours ago. He was probably the most unselfish human being I've ever known. He will be sorely missed. : (

Comment: 3h (180m) TF: Possible way in which the price action plays out before continuing down further with our falling knife on the 24th or 25th of November.



2-Day and 3-Day TF:

WOW... I never did click "Update Idea" to post this before falling to sleep. My bad...
Comment: Here's the 2-Day and 3-Day TF"s to let you see the trajectory of the Blue LSMA to see how more downward pressure is likely until around Thanksgiving (November 24th or 25th).

Comment: NOTE how I added more FIB's to the "Selling Climax" that occurred after each "Buying Climax." The first Selling Climax fell to the second (2nd) 0.236 FIB at $46.18. The next "Selling Climax fell below the the second (2nd) FIB at 1.618. I did not have to put another FIB between that 1.618 extension and the 1.0 coordinate.



Now I'm going to do the same thing at our current location to get a RANGE we can fall to.

Price Range we could possibly fall down to in the following chart:

Comment: This is certainly shaping up to be the "Falling Knife" we need to be the "Selling Climax" to mark the beginning of Phase A in an Accumulation Schematic. Here's a chart I've posted before in this publication to show you the BIG PICTURE and what our "Selling Climax" is currently looking like:

Comment: An idea of what Phase A can look like in this Accumulation Schematic; which begins with a Selling Climax:



Here's a screenshot with an example of what an Accumulation Schematic looks like in the lower right hand corner of the chart in the screenshot: https://i.imgur.com/XWV3v5a.png
Comment: A look at the indicators:

Comment: You have seen the indicators in the 7-Day TF (above). Here's the 2-Day TF with indicators WHILE keeping in mind what we have seen with the indicators in the 7-Day TF. Keep in mind; this is a "possibility."

Comment: It's POSSIBLE we stay within a trading range of $4,200 and $4,700 for a while before the next drop.

Here's a look at the 3h (180m) TF:
Comment: It's important to note the Composite Group COULD take us up to around $5,250 to entice margin longs; only to dump on them once again to liquidate their position.
Comment: Hope everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving Day holiday. I enjoyed time off with my wife and son. Plan to get back to the office remodel once the weekend is over.

Here's a simple update of current progression of the price action heading down to the "red square" identifying a price range of $2,489.08 to $3,287.37. That red square price range was posted in a chart on November 19th.



The Blue LSMA in the 2-Day TF seems to show we are approaching exhaustion in this downside pressure. We may experience a "Falling Knife" on or around December 1st. We "should" expect an "Automatic Rally" up to "Preliminary Support" level around the $6,075 to $6,415 price range AFTER we experience a "Falling Knife."



Posting this 6h (360m) TF chart simply to try to get across to everyone we "should" be looking for a "Selling Climax" that's followed by an "Automatic Rally." As for the actual dates these two events actually occur is unknown. What's important is you're aware of the events we expect to occur in the very near future. It's up to you if you wish to scatter several buy orders within the price range I've identified with the red box. Maybe you have a price range you've identified of your own. I've shared my "opinion" of my price range for the current drop and the peak at the automatic rally. Feel free to share yours in comments if you like.

Comment: Here's a look at the 7-Day TF Progression Chart identifying events from Bitcoin's Beginning to Present:

Comment: The 2-Day and 4-Day TF's are beginning to look promising for POTENTIAL reversal to upside pressure.

Here's the 4-Day TF:



Here's the 2-Day TF:

Comment: 6h TF:

Comment: I made a recent update to the following publication when USING GODMODE 3.1 MOD With LSMA. Before clicking the chart (below) that takes you to that publication I want to mention something of importance in regard to WHAT TYPE OF TRADER ONE INTENDS TO BE.

It's MY OPINION that one should take advantage of LONG TERM TREND TRADES "WITHOUT MARGIN" WITH A LARGE PERCENTAGE (50 to 70 percent) OF CAPITAL PUT ASSIDE FOR A PARTICULAR COIN YOU WISH TO TRADE. USE 15 TO 25 PERCENT OF CAPITAL INTENDED FOR TRADING A PARTICULAR COIN ON "THE EVENTS THAT OCCUR WITHIN A WYCKOFF ACCUMULATION SCHEMATIC" BY USING GODMODE 3.1 MOD, STOCHASTIC RSI AND PHOENIX ARI.

The previous recommendation is based on the AMOUNT OF TIME one has to invest into trading. The advice I just gave is meant more for one who aspires to be a Day Trader. If you don't have the time to be a Day Trader, it's probably best for your focus to be an INVESTOR who makes a couple of trades a annually based on LONG TERM ANALYSIS with Godmode 3.1 Mod, Stochastic RSI, Phoenix ARI, 50 DMA and 200 DMA indicators.

I'm posting knowledge gained from past and current events to help everyone who is interested to become not only an Investor but also a WELL ROUNDED SWING TRADER who can successfully trade on each event that occurs within a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.

Comment: Quite a bit of comments have been recently added to the publication link (chart) provided in the previous post.
Comment: 18h (1080m) TF:

Comment: Daily TF:



3-Day TF:

Comment: 12h TF:

Comment: 6h TF:

Both Coin Cap and Bitcoin arrived at bottom of triangular convergence.
Now, Can I expect that the drop is over?
What do you think about this? I want to hear your opinion.

1) Coin Market Cap

2) Bitcoin


+1 Reply
@pkb6698,

Thanks for sharing...

Interesting perspective...

I've already shared my opinion in this publication. Not sure if you've seen my updates over the past 12 hours.

Back up to $5,260 is possible to entice margin longs to come back in; only to slam it down once again to liquidate those positions - OR - We could stay in a trading range between $4,250 and $4,950 for a while before falling further down.

I still see $3,287 as a decent possibility. We could go lower.

I'm basically looking for an OBVIOUS "Falling Knife" (Selling Climax) to mark the end of this Distribution and beginning of Accumulation.

Reply
pkb6698 ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, I totally agree with you. If 4.5k is broken, I think 3.5k is also possible.
+1 Reply
Thanks a ton for your work!

I've done some post-mortem of the break down in my analysis | Talked about what's next? | Included a free trade + Many updates:
+1 Reply
Total Coin Market Cap (2) : 2014 vs 2018

I think this drop is a pedestal for future rise.
Reply
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