botje11
Short

Targets reached, now it's ready to drop big again to 9K lows

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
So the 13K             has been seen, there is a chance now, that the top has been set! 13.200 is also stil , what i mentioned yesterday, to form a H&S . It is hanging around the highs, that is a strong sign. I would have rather seen a maximum price of 12.800. It has made a tripple top at the 13.000 level, untill now it is still forming a bullish upwards triangle, that could also bring us to 13.500, but for now, i expect a top form around these levels, to make a new big drop back to the 9K lows and maybe even lower. I have started to open shorts from 12.600 12.700 yesterday and have added every 100 points higher, also at 13.000. I will continue to add up to 13.200. I will have a big short position, but divided at all those prices, BTC             has surprised me to many times to have a position that's to big. Money managment is to important to stay truly focused on the trades and not on the money!
Comment: We could see a small bounce up from here
Comment: No buying here, or the rescue squad has to come in now, or it will slowely drop more
Comment: It even reached the neckline faster than i though! This is the H&S i was talking about yesterday
Comment: For my H&S theory, we should see a small bounce at these levels, to make the right shoulder
Comment: It should turn around downwards from around here
Comment: So far exactly as planned, now it should accelerate downwards. There is always a chance it will bounce up hard from the neckline making it a failed H&S
Comment: Rescue squad is in the house again, lets see if they can hold it
Comment: There is no real buying, but there are many big bids in the book, much more than usual. Lets see what will happen
Comment: They are having difficulties supporting it, the bids when't up from 50, to 100 and now even more than 300 BTC
Comment: And the neckline is broken, it should accelerate down now
Comment: It should stay under the neackline at 12.300 now
Next target around 11.700
Comment: It has been a wonderfull day of trading again, it's just to easy sometimes. I hope some of you also made some good trades. This has been another H&S wich i predicted, even before the left shoulder was completed. I do have to say, the one on the 17.200 high on 7 december 2017, is still the best one with a 3K drop within 4 hours :)

It is looking very weak now, after all the efforts of a few (the support bidding what i mentioned several times yesterday) of holding the 12.400 to 12.200 levels, it still made a big drop!. Even the 11.600/11.800 only gave a temporarily support.
For the short term bearish scenario, it should idealy stay below the 11.800. 12.300 is really the max for the bearish momentum to stay strong. As you know i have opened a big short position wich i started to open from the 12.600 and added up untill the 13.000. I have been trading allot in the mean time, because that's what i do, but for the 'longer' term (days/week), i have lowered my stop to around the 12.300 to guarantee a nice profit. My target is still the aorund the previous low at 9K and probably even lower. This was my plan from the moment i almost perfectly nailed the bottom at 9.400 and turned long there. I would wait for the 12.500ish levels to go short again at higher prices for the next big wave down! So far this longer term plan has worked out perfectly and i will stay with it.
I will however adjust my stop ofcourse and i will adjust my view, only when i will see new signals that tell me to do so. BTC can always be very surprising.

The one thing i am surprised of the most, the small amount of likes i got. I have some new followers the last few days, but it's still really disappointing when you look at the fact that i pointed out the bottom around 9.400 and predicting the top now around 13.000. That's why i have not been giving any updates today.

So, followers for the ones who appreciate my charts and analysis and the many updates and even more the time and effort i put into them. I suggest you give some back :) I am not talking about money, just try to increase my views. One follower suggested i should use twitter, maybe i will do so in the future, but i just don't have the time to look into it for now. Maybe for now someone can do it FOR me instead :).

Comment: For now it think it wil find some support around the 11.200, make another, maybe last small upswing towards 12.500/12.700, than it could go drop below the 11K!
Comment:
There it is, the upswing :), just to easy sometimes!
I opened a new chart/idea again
Follow me on Twitter for updates here on TradingView:

https://t.me/botje11
I've been anticipating your posts..and look forward to reading them...please do keep posting
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hi, is the price action forming a flag to for a downward continuation or setting up a base to go up higher? what are your thoughts? @botje11
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Aamir66 Aamir66
@Aamir66, i think i got my answer :)
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, Haha LOL :)
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@botje, I also am expecting a big consolidation, and am reconsidering my highly active, day trading approach to simply waiting for periodic/monthly drops to actively trade and do bjuy-ups and dumps. I say, instead of waiting for big run-ups in price like we did in 2017, play the big dips. It's a new world for BTC, adapt!
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botje11 mortonpeak
@mortonpeak, Day trading every day and most of the day is never good. Normally it's best to avoid sideways action and only trade actively when volatility is at it's best! I also think the crypto market will face a more risky enviroment, no more guaranteed bull runs after every big drop.
+1 Reply
Weak bounce
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Lyptus Lyptus
Reply
@Lyptus, So far on the smaller time frame it is showing weakness, but it's still close to the high, It has to drop below the 12.300 to catch more bearish momentum
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