ItisCalvin

Bears Aren't Hibernating Just Yet

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
We have reached down below 300 for the first time in 3 months. This is not looking so good for the bull of the market. The bears all but own this trend right now. It seems like the whole long term trend is about to go bearish if we cannot turn it around. Maybe we should let it since it is quite a struggle to work against those who see the USD as a more lucrative investment than Bitcoin . I could not blame them since it has been nothing but a short flight down into LAX so far. I wish I could say all things look good for Bitcoin , in terms of going to the moon, but I can’t. We have continued to push down even amidst some good news. A clear sign that bears do not care and want us to head down further.

I have included an old but a good Fibonacci retracement line. The low from last time was around 275 and going lower would make this forecast nothing but storm clouds ahead. We can only handle so much before people start to bail ship and go into other investments.

Indicators
RSI – Looking rather bleak right now. Fallen below the 30 mark which tells me we are facing some tough bears right now. The past three times it has been going below 30 and never above 70. This shows me that the midterm trend is bearish dominant. No signs of reversals in this indicator.
Stoch and StochRSI – In the oversold area at the moment, but not out of it yet. I would expect that sometime in the next few days the market to cool off again and things get much slower based upon this indicator.
• PSAR – As we head down it is showing great strength on the sell side. When the parabolic starts to flatten out it will give a buy signal that will not be strong at first but will gain some momentum.
• DC – The channels are a bit hard to see this zoomed out, but zooming it in on the interactive chart shows how we are in the bottom half of the line. If we can bounce up above the median, then that would mean some very short term bulls are trying to take back the short term trend. How long it will last is still yet to be determined.

For the targets I still see on other long term charts (i.e. Day chart) that there is a lot more room to push down. Shorter term charts (4 hour) point towards some slowing down for a short break before the strength of the long term chart pushes it further down. We may be seeing 250s soon so brace for that.

Short Term Targets
Bull Target: $313 (More bearish , but a return back up could lead us here if but for a moment)
Bear: 269 (Hard to tell from old support lines; it may come back from the dead)
Charging Bull: 324
Stalking Bear: 274.8 (Because, you know, we like to test old supports)

If you want more about Bitcoin being under 300 see my blog post: http://www.allbitcointa.cu.cc/2015/01/th...