The push from 60k to 64k was more than expected. But sat tight. Slept like a baby, up every hour crying. Only joking.
Ok so if we go back to the post "Rocket" - See inside this post for full details.
We had the A and B moves. But this wasn't actually the 3 end as expected. So in Wyckoff terms, this was the BC and not the UTAD move.
Here's why I want to say I am wrong - Our indicator for the top of the mean reversion called a $64,966 March 21st. ATH was 64,896 - what's 70 bucks amongst friends?
However, before this, we had a March 19th move inside the regression which also has a tag of the outer upper channel lined up for 65k.
The 26th of March the weekly 3 was projected for 67k - however, this is where I was wrong. 3 had yet to complete, meaning daily 5 was still being built. See inside this one for exact levels.
So I was feeling a little scared these levels had all shifted a bit.
The call was built around 8hours of Liquidity levels (also unchartered territory for BTC) Although it was a fake-out and drop.
So I wanted to share the shift. This is what I had pushed out in the rocket post.
Whereas actually, 3 is now from the ATH.
Last nights call was an internal joke on Cubbish pressure - catching a lovely timed drop (see inside for call)
Hope next week brings some more fun.
Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
Don't be too humble ;), your "they blew the rocket" post was almost a perfect roadmap! it indeed went a bit further up than you expected but this is exactly as Wyckoff warned us, UTAD can be overshoot a bit. Thanks for sharing your insights. Wondered if you see any proof of "institutions getting out of bitcoin" recent FUD? my guess is the opposite, but they just want to get good price to buy in.
Mayfair_Ventures
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@Asterix, Thank you. Yes, they want a better price. Who better to give it to them than retail traders? Only now smart money is joining in. But that isn't more smart money in = price goes up. A lot more to it than that. We are lucky to be in the wealth management space and FX, so get to see a wider view. You are spot on, buying at value...
Asterix
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@Mayfair_Ventures, thanks for reply. what do you think is the target for the current bounce?
pascma
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Hello again :-)
Funny how tings work. Not much more than a week since the ATH and already BTC broke through all sorts of strong supports in previous corrections, including 50k. It has been so fast that It is now actually close to a potential target of the whole weekly 4 at 44k. Is your expectation still of a very complex or slow move down? Or possible this retrace will be quite a bit deeper than most are anticipating
Mayfair_Ventures
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@pascma, Morning, Yes I think it's not going to be as simple as down and back up on this - It's quite possibly the instrument with the most eyes on it! The crypto crowd are all shouting moon! So we could see a deep wave B push but 4 weekly is not complete yet. COT data tonight will shed some more light on the next play. In terms of depth we are seeing several levels - don't think it's going to be as obvious on this move as a simple fib pullback. Too many eyes, too much liquidity, too many eager buyers! We saw 10bn of positions liquidated on Sunday - the next key levels could easily use the same playbook.
Asterix
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Hi @Mayfair_Ventures, we stopped just above 47k, and looks like bounce now, this is very close to the local bottom level from your April 18th post. Do you think it is possible that the fakeout to 64k is not valid and your April 18th count is still valid? Anyway, considering current bottom just above 47, what do you think bounce will be?
Mayfair_Ventures
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@Asterix, Just need to shift (A) over and we can go back to the post on March the 18th levels all valid with the exception of the fake out *and that level in red was on a smaller TF. So I'm expecting a rise here Daily timeframe. Should it stay respectful.
Asterix
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Thanks! I am also expecting a decent bounce, at least 55k, but 56-57 makes even more sense. Hopefully alts will recover, too. sorry, was cross posting with you, and asked about the bounce again
Mayfair_Ventures
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@Asterix, no problem, think of it currently as a 0-1 move up smaller tf. then have the 2-3 to sucker longs, pullback to scare - well everyone, 4-5 esq move will sucker even more longs and then in the image above we will then be up at D. A week's time if the last move up can be used to measure. There is also a nasty level back at 60k but if we go there now I would expect a spike not a full close.
Asterix
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@Mayfair_Ventures, Yep, if Wyckoffian philosophy is too be trusted, we need to go much higher to sucker more longs. The FUD was so intense yesterday I was practically sure it was a bottom, but stayed 63% in cash/shorts, just to be sure and sleep well :) Must be great for your to work on institutional side of things, I imagine it is very interesting and helps you understand better how the Composite Man operates these days. But being retail also has advantages, I can feel retail sentiment quite well and I am trying to go against it (within reason) and as you advised, more scaling position than doing dramatic moves, especially not on such a roller coaster. So far I have modest profits vs being all in btc while maintaining at least 50% cash, so no reasons to complain, hopefully will maintain it during the next moves.