Sawcruhteez

Bitcoin Daily Update (day 336)

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
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Consensio: S EMA < M EMA > P > L EMA

Patterns: Phase 7 Hyperwave | A&E | Bear Channel
Horizontals: S: $3,729 | R: $3,823
Trendline: Parabolic SAR: W: $4,230 | D: $4,180
Futures Curve: Backwardation
Candlestick Analysis: Dragonfly doji
Funding Rates: Longs receive 0.027%
BTCUSDSHORTS: Broke down horizontal support but appears to be finding support from daily R9
TD’ Sequential: G1
Ichimoku Cloud:. Bullish TK Cross | Bullish Kumo Twist | Today’s selloff found support at the top of the cloud, and closed above Kijun-Sen - very interesting!
Relative Strength Index: Amazing how quickly it can go from overbought to middle of the range. Supporting above 50 is very interesting!
Average Directional Index: ADX continues to trend with +DI > -DI (although they are converging)
Price Action: 24h: -0.2% | 14d: +5.6% | 1m: +11%
Bollinger Bands: Is bullish, selloff closed above MA - very interesting!
Stochastic Oscillator: Is trying to make bullish crossover on daily. Weekly bullish was confirmed by breaking above 20.

Summary: I cannot remember the last time when the price of Bitcoin has been this interesting. It has me so close to opening a trade in either direction. In day 335 I said I would be looking to go long if we breakthrough $3,922 and said I would be ready to change my disposition if price remained below the 4 & 9 EMA’s while getting a bearish cross and broke the daily Parabolic SAR.
This is a great example of fickle trading can and should be. This is also a great example of why to wait for the candle to close. Today the price broke the daily SAR and got a bearish cross with the 4 & 9 EMA’s with the price below and I entered a stop order to long BTCM19 at $3,802 with a stop at $3,574.

After that sharp selloff occurred we quickly rebounded and made a very bullish close with a dragonfly doji above very important areas (50 EMA, Kijun-Sen, and Bollinger Band MA). That was very bullish as far as I am concerned and wreaks of a shakeout before a breakout. If am wrong then hopefully my stop order will not trigger. If I am right then I expect price to blow right through that area which is exactly when / where I like placing stop market orders on high liquidity exchanges.

Under the ‘trendline’ line item above there is a chart that I am watching closely. If we can breakthrough the top of that bear channel then I will be calling for $5,800. If we can’t then I will be calling for a return to Phase 1 ($1,160) by Q2 2019.

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