EW cascading failure, could this be the path to 5k?
In my last analysis i said that i would average my buying price around 7.8k and that's what i did but unfortunately i got stopped out. My last buy was at the 0.786 (7670) retrace level of what should have been the first of five waves up to at least 13k (100% extension of wave 1: 6k - 11.8k)
Ok, so..i think we need a short recap. After the move from 6k to 11.8k we had a nice retrace to exactly the 0.786 level (7.2k) and from here we started a new move up (7.2k-9.2k) which unfortunately ended by correcting more than 100%. This means that we should see another ABC correction for the move from from 6k to 11.8k (wxy in red) which could send us lower than 6k thus creating a failure (WXYZ in black) for the 6k-11.8k wave because it would retrace more than 100%.
I will open a short position when the count is clear and i will have a potential target for wave B (blue).
Do you see other possible counts?
Ok, so..i think we need a short recap. After the move from 6k to 11.8k we had a nice retrace to exactly the 0.786 level (7.2k) and from here we started a new move up (7.2k-9.2k) which unfortunately ended by correcting more than 100%. This means that we should see another ABC correction for the move from from 6k to 11.8k (wxy in red) which could send us lower than 6k thus creating a failure (WXYZ in black) for the 6k-11.8k wave because it would retrace more than 100%.
I will open a short position when the count is clear and i will have a potential target for wave B (blue).
Do you see other possible counts?
Comment:
If we break the low of a (6550) this meas that b ended at 7224 but i doubt it because it was a very short retrace, it barely touched the 0.236 retrace of wave a. Wave b has 3 waves (a-b-c) and now we might be at the end if it's second wave at the 0.786 retrace of the first wave (6690). If b has one more wave up i expect it to end somewhere between 7250 and 7500.
If we break the low of a (6550) this meas that b ended at 7224 but i doubt it because it was a very short retrace, it barely touched the 0.236 retrace of wave a. Wave b has 3 waves (a-b-c) and now we might be at the end if it's second wave at the 0.786 retrace of the first wave (6690). If b has one more wave up i expect it to end somewhere between 7250 and 7500.
Comment:
I did not open the short position yet. For the moment i consider this a false break. We could still be in wave b in an expanded flat or an abcd type of structure.
I did not open the short position yet. For the moment i consider this a false break. We could still be in wave b in an expanded flat or an abcd type of structure.
Trade active:
Trade active, btcusd shorts are up, 1st target 6k.
Comment:
Hmm...stop hunting/fomo/are we still in wave b?
Comment:
Hmm...stop hunting/fomo/are we still in wave b?
Hmm...stop hunting/fomo/are we still in wave b?
This one is better. Keep in mind that the waves letters do not represent possible targets. I will post an update with possible targets once we have wave b.
I'm interested in shorting from b to c and from B to C. I don't think that i'll open a long position from A to B.