Hi,
just a quick update of where I think we are right now in the grand scheme of things.
I see a lot of 2014 fractal similarity charts, but imho most are wrong. They are much too fast, and predict the bottom of 3k already in a few months. That would be insane, since the halving in June 2020 is still 2 years away.
I only see a new rally possible shortly before the halving, getting into full swing after the halving, and reaching the top in 2022 at 100K.
So we need more time for this bearmarket to evolve.
I think we are even a bit slower than 2014/2015, if I look at the fractal similarity. I can clearly identify the ABCDE pattern in 2014 with the one now, seeing also how the weekly Bollinger band distorts, is very similar to where we were in March 2014. This would mean that we are about 25% slower this correction than back then.
If you continue with this train of thought, I get the bottom in April 2019, the whole of 2019 being basically flat afterwards with a small spike here and there, but the real rally taking off again in early 2020, and picking up full speed in 2021, and an insane top in 2022.
It would make no sense for this correction to be faster than in 2014, since BTC is like a giant super organism which is growing and growing and getting bigger, and has therefore more inertia, and it gets harder and harder for this giant monster to change its path. Therefore BTC will get slower over time, which makes sense,
since more and more people will be involved in BTC in the future.
I hope this makes some sense for you too.
So now I think we'll be going down to 4xxx, probably around 4800 if I look at the weekly Bollinger bands, BTC won't go very far below the lower Bollinger band in this dump, and then a sharp rebound, possibly reaching as high as 9900 again.
just a quick update of where I think we are right now in the grand scheme of things.
I see a lot of 2014 fractal similarity charts, but imho most are wrong. They are much too fast, and predict the bottom of 3k already in a few months. That would be insane, since the halving in June 2020 is still 2 years away.
I only see a new rally possible shortly before the halving, getting into full swing after the halving, and reaching the top in 2022 at 100K.
So we need more time for this bearmarket to evolve.
I think we are even a bit slower than 2014/2015, if I look at the fractal similarity. I can clearly identify the ABCDE pattern in 2014 with the one now, seeing also how the weekly Bollinger band distorts, is very similar to where we were in March 2014. This would mean that we are about 25% slower this correction than back then.
If you continue with this train of thought, I get the bottom in April 2019, the whole of 2019 being basically flat afterwards with a small spike here and there, but the real rally taking off again in early 2020, and picking up full speed in 2021, and an insane top in 2022.
It would make no sense for this correction to be faster than in 2014, since BTC is like a giant super organism which is growing and growing and getting bigger, and has therefore more inertia, and it gets harder and harder for this giant monster to change its path. Therefore BTC will get slower over time, which makes sense,
since more and more people will be involved in BTC in the future.
I hope this makes some sense for you too.
So now I think we'll be going down to 4xxx, probably around 4800 if I look at the weekly Bollinger bands, BTC won't go very far below the lower Bollinger band in this dump, and then a sharp rebound, possibly reaching as high as 9900 again.