just a quick update of where I think we are right now in the grand scheme of things. I see a lot of 2014 fractal similarity charts, but imho most are wrong. They are much too fast, and predict the bottom of 3k already in a few months. That would be insane, since the halving in June 2020 is still 2 years away. I only see a new rally possible shortly before the halving, getting into full swing after the halving, and reaching the top in 2022 at 100K.
So we need more time for this bearmarket to evolve.
I think we are even a bit slower than 2014/2015, if I look at the fractal similarity. I can clearly identify the ABCDE pattern in 2014 with the one now, seeing also how the weekly Bollinger band distorts, is very similar to where we were in March 2014. This would mean that we are about 25% slower this correction than back then.
If you continue with this train of thought, I get the bottom in April 2019, the whole of 2019 being basically flat afterwards with a small spike here and there, but the real rally taking off again in early 2020, and picking up full speed in 2021, and an insane top in 2022.
It would make no sense for this correction to be faster than in 2014, since BTC is like a giant super organism which is growing and growing and getting bigger, and has therefore more inertia, and it gets harder and harder for this giant monster to change its path. Therefore BTC will get slower over time, which makes sense, since more and more people will be involved in BTC in the future.
I hope this makes some sense for you too. So now I think we'll be going down to 4xxx, probably around 4800 if I look at the weekly Bollinger bands, BTC won't go very far below the lower Bollinger band in this dump, and then a sharp rebound, possibly reaching as high as 9900 again.
"It would make no sense for this correction to be faster than in 2014..." fractals unfolding... increasing towards infinite complexity with every iteration....
Yes I considered this. But problem is these things are self-similar on so many scales - difficult to know whether your particular interpretation is correct. Another thing is the increasing complexity: this could (should?) lead to more structures, we could get two April 2013 type interim levels for example. And here is another bearish type fit
Also I think it's a mistake to think BTC correction fractal will be obviously the same as previous - I mean 2014 is superficially very different from 2011. Maybe we take inspiration from other asset markets that have been around longer, after all bubbles are bubbles are bubbles ;)
SebastianofMoon
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@barclayjames, Thanks for your insight, I appreciate it. Yes, your're right, the problem with self similarity is indeed that one can find so many different fractals which fit perfectly on many different timescales. That makes it hard to estimate which one is more likely, since that's all we can do as traders, estimate likelihoods. What I wanted to say, and maybe my choice of words wasn't perfect, is that I think a scenario where BTC is slower than 2014 would make more sense since it has grown. But I don't know if that theory is correct hehe, just a theory :)
RealMcafee
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@FlaviusTodorius67, I liked it :)
elshanti
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nice analysis ! I agree that btc should be in slower move due to market maturing and increasing adoption..although we are below the moving averages , still there is a chance we might follow the first 2013 dip and bounce on a slower phase
elshanti
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@FlaviusTodorius67
Crypto-Quantum-Fox
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@elshanti, I think your bang on man! everyone is comparing this drop to the wrong one. Its moving wrong imo, and if you think about it the shape will time with the 'institutional input' for that next faster pump, then they'll of course dump the whole thing hard and short everyone into the ground, thus getting the long drawn out low after (the one everyone is thinking were in now).
ive been thinking this for weeks. ive got a cool graph to publish along those lines but the thing distorts every time i publish it. :(
SebastianofMoon
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@elshanti, Interesting! Thanks. Yes, I agree, there is still a chance that BTC surprises us all and does a 2013 double rally repeat. It would be a very nice surprise indeed hehe! And the fascinating thing with this market is, that you can never 100% rule out a scenario.
i.imgur.com/rNOzolg.png