BITCOIN making a Death Cross. A Pitchfork Approach.

On this study I display the whole Bull Cycle of 2019 - 2021 on one single chart using the Pitchfork tool. This illustration is important in order to put into context where we are now following the downtrend of the recent weeks and in particular the flash crash event of the current one.

** The Pitchfork of 2019/2020/2021 **
As you see I plot the tool (on the 1D time-frame) starting from the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle on $3100 all the way up to the first (abnormal due to the Libra euphoria) High in June 2019 and then the equally abnormal (due to the COVID flash crash) bottom of March 2020.

We see that the April 2021 High was made on the 0.786 level (yellow line), while this week's flash crash (another abnormal event) hit (and rebounded so far on) the Pitchfork's median (orange line). The median has previously acted as a Resistance in late November/ early December 2020 (when BTC was attempting to break its 20k ATH).

At the same time the RSI has come close to its 2 year Support Zone on the 1D time-frame. But perhaps the strongest Support and the one that I've mentioned on previous studies separates the Bull Cycle from the Bear, is the 1W MA50, which is on $27900, as shown on the chart below:



** The 1D MA50/ 1D MA100 Death Cross **
What is even more interesting, is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA100 (green trend-line) Death Cross that is being formed today. Even though that is theoretically bearish, since the June 2019 High, two out of three such Death Crosses have been formed after the bottom was in. For those who think that this week's flash crash is similar to the COVID one (March 2020), then it is possible that this Cross indicates the bottom. For those who find more resemblances of today with the sequence and the Death Cross after the June 26 2019 High, then there is still room to fall.

As you see on the main chart, every Pitchfork level has been tested (and held) successfully as Support during the 2020/2021 rise (I've designated those with the arrows of different colors). If the Median isn't the bottom, does that mean that the 0.236 is next around $25000 - $27000?

What do you think? Is this Death Cross a sign of Bottom or not? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!


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