Yesterday’s pump has squeezed out most of the short positions. The pump was very aggressive BUT keep in mind that we are still in a downtrend channel.
Remember when I said to you back at the end of March that I think the whales is going to pump the price up and break above the top of downtrend line in the linear scale so people think that a new bull run begins? However, the market was too weak at the time to even try to test the top of the downtrend line.
But, I think what I was expecting at the end of March is going to happen NOW. BTC is going to squeeze out the remaining shorts and shoots up to the true downtrend line in the log scale (chart provided below). Just like at the beginning of March when everyone thought the new bull run has begun because BTC has broken above the downtrend channel? But in fact, we were still inside a downtrend channel in the log scale? I think the exact same thing that happened on the 5th of March will happen again - BTC hit the hard rock and selloff ensued.
Secondly, with the aggressiveness in the last few days, I believe re-test of the top of downtrend line in the log scale is inevitable. Many traders now called the bottom is in, and people who missed out the chance to buy in at 6.4k have started to place their long positions. This is exactly what I have been waiting for - most the shorts are gone, and most are in long positions. And this is how BTC can go down to 4.4k – PANIC!!
Further, if you compare the 2014 crash and now, you can definitely see some similarities between the two.
Of course there is a chance of BTC going above the true downtrend channel in the log scale. However, if it does get rejected by the top of downtrend line in the log scale around 8.8k - 9k, a selloff will most likely ensue.
Taiwan Bear
****************************************************************************************** Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Some tips for you: - Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+) - Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
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Same chart but in log scale:
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2014 crash comparison:
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Not looking too good for the bulls. Possible h&s.
If both the yellow trend line & the bull flag do not hold, BTC is going to dive from here.
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There is bearish divergence on RSI, if you are going long, please set your SL. BTC might not get to 8.8k.
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Never seen a more clear cut fib retracement than this.
And RSI 80+? Good luck bulls.
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BTC still consolidating - wait for breakout.
Direction of breakout is unclear. But MACD bearish crossover has occurred.
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The arrow to the top doesn't mean I become bullish, it's just mean that a test of top of downtrend channel is likely and IF BTC gets rejected from the top of downtrend line, it will be very bearish.
@Flexiflex, You wouldn't be saying that if you didn't have leverage. Telling people to go short after a strong move like the one we have just had is irresponsible. People could get wrecked and blow their accounts. Then they will miss the next bull run, because they won't have any money left to invest.
Flexiflex
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@rev214us, Yesterdays increase of 15% was within 30 minutes without a reason (I know that shorts got liquidated). Do you think that prices will remain at the current level after it shot up like that? Please keep in mind that we are in a bear market... Looks like manipulation as usual to me. Whales just wanted to get higher prices for the next take down.
kardia
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@Flexiflex, Certain people on this platform are also playing a role in manipulating the movement of the market. You have to be careful to recognize who they might be.
Flexiflex
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@rev214us, ...and so it begins
kardia
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@Flexiflex, What begins? Another squeeze? Either bulls are going to have to wait longer or shorts are going to learn another hard lesson on the danger of using leverage.
Flexiflex
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@rev214us, Look at the chart. Business as usual. Whales pushed the price to short it again to lower ranges... This is just the beginning of the next take down
kardia
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@Flexiflex, Not necessarily. Price reached the 200 EMA one the Daily chart—an obvious level where people would take profits. It does not mean it's going to plummet to 6k or lower. Let's see what happens.
kardia
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@Flexiflex, If price closes below the 20 EMA on the Daily, then it's likely it will continue to fall.