In my previous analysis on BTC/USD I showed that Bitcoin is following a linear increase on the logarithmic scale, this means we are still following an exponential trend.
BTC has just corrected for the third time on this logarithmic trendline within roughly the same time periods (60-63 days) and all with similair increases when retracing back to this trendline (around 80-85%).
As we can see, BTC also bounced for the fourth time off the 200 MA line on the daily candles indicating we might be starting a new cycle.
Starting a new cycle as we seen before means we are still following the exponential increase and we could be heading for a new ATH in roughly 60 days since the low of the correction. I would estimate this ATH to be around 26k USD.
I have made an EW forecast that shows which elliot waves we could be making if this analysis is correct. We would touch the upper trendline of the bullflag as seen in the left top chart, followed by a retrace allowing for re-entry. In the right top chart we can see BTC is currently in a channel that could lead to the test of the long term bull flag. In the lower chart we can see the long term projection.
In my opinion, a good trader should consider both options. If we touch the upper trendline of the bull flag we could still be going lower to test the lower line of the bull flag which would complete an 5 wave corrective move. Please keep in mind that this would mean that 5k-8k is still surely within the realm of possibilities. However, seeing the cycles that BTC had in the past and just completed I would find it more likely that we go up instead of consolidating/correcting for a longer time.
BTC has just corrected for the third time on this logarithmic trendline within roughly the same time periods (60-63 days) and all with similair increases when retracing back to this trendline (around 80-85%).
As we can see, BTC also bounced for the fourth time off the 200 MA line on the daily candles indicating we might be starting a new cycle.
Starting a new cycle as we seen before means we are still following the exponential increase and we could be heading for a new ATH in roughly 60 days since the low of the correction. I would estimate this ATH to be around 26k USD.
I have made an EW forecast that shows which elliot waves we could be making if this analysis is correct. We would touch the upper trendline of the bullflag as seen in the left top chart, followed by a retrace allowing for re-entry. In the right top chart we can see BTC is currently in a channel that could lead to the test of the long term bull flag. In the lower chart we can see the long term projection.
In my opinion, a good trader should consider both options. If we touch the upper trendline of the bull flag we could still be going lower to test the lower line of the bull flag which would complete an 5 wave corrective move. Please keep in mind that this would mean that 5k-8k is still surely within the realm of possibilities. However, seeing the cycles that BTC had in the past and just completed I would find it more likely that we go up instead of consolidating/correcting for a longer time.
Comment:
Comment:
playing out well so far
My ideas are not meant for trading advice, always do your own research. Always be prepared for bull and bear scenarios
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If my ideas were helpfull, feel free to donate here: 1Kufwyg8tq8s76SUfCPvCZUVgLxSha8UZZ