filbfilb
Long

BTC: Weekly analysis

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hey Traders!

So the bulls had a great week last week retaking ground at the $10k USD level. but just falling short of completing the H&S measured move. Im going to stick to analysing the 12 hour candles as they seem the most useful for my trading style.

This week im looking for the bulls to complete the Head and shoulders target a the 11400-12200.
There is still room in the RSI which would indicate that we can get there and there is a general pull to retest prior diagonal resistance althoguh MCD d looks toppy
Bid support is also increasing gradually which is necessary if we are to sustain these prices.

Here in the $11.5 – 12.4k we will likely find profit taking and that the bears will take advantage of this.

What I would like to see is drawn on the chart which would be a retracement and forming a large adam and eve bottom which could go as low as testing support back at 8k or another quasai head and shoulders that we have seen so many times before with support at around the 9-9.5k level signalling the end of the bear market.

There are several levels of support to cover off the bears if they go for it which I am quite happy to support with my own bids after taking profits..

All in all it looks positive and as a trader I really like the look of the inevitable volatility and that the way it may shape up could take us close to our previous highs if it plays the way I see it.
My best tip for the week if you are long is to keep some capital off the table to make the most of the high probability rejection we are likely to see.

All the best looking into the trading week ahead.

filbfilb
Feb 19
Comment: Im a big fan of this TK cross on the 12 hour too its been a long time.
Below the bearish cloud etc so its not all out bullish but its positive.

Feb 19
Comment: looks like we are about to launch
heres the targets i have in closer detail

Feb 19
Comment: ready to pop

Feb 20
Trade closed: target reached: Trade has reached H&S targets.
Scaled out limit orders hit over night.

It is possible that we could move throguh the cloud and rest the resistance. I may jusmp back in if the path is clear but am generally looking to buy lower at support.

Feb 20
Comment:
Feb 20
Comment: Important note to the above chart. longs are closing and shorts are increasing yet price action is still on the up. Bullish.
Feb 21
Comment: Morning Traders!

Todays intra day update. Last night we saw a large volume sell off (volume similar to that which preceded this run up. This woudl suggests to me that we are running out of steam and people are looking at the resistance as being too much to get over. I currently have no position as a result after being stopped out last night with a small loss bringing a 30 trade no loss streak to an end.. i dont want to short a bull market ahead of a significant break down either so im sitting out waiting for a pull back or a breakout with conviction (i.e. volume related breakout). I will keep updating this week's idea as usual though.

best

Feb 21
Comment: Struggling to see anything positive to say at this level.
bid support also v weak. lookout below.
Feb 22
Comment: Ive switched the chart to linear as this is the scales where the resistance was found.
Also took a trade off the bounce last night and sold it.
Orderbook doesnt feel great to be honest there is a bit of a H&S top forming, which looks poised to take us below 9k if the big 10k order block doesnt hold.
still of the opinion we will find a bottom around the range shown, just slightly concerned about the way we fell through the 9's like butter last time.

Feb 22
Comment: oh i also forgot to point out the new moon.

Coincidence that it falls as per this chart???
Feb 22
Comment:
Feb 26
Comment: Morning Traders!

Im not going to do a new idea this week, this is largely a continuation of the exsisting idea from last week that playedout as planned.

Ive had increasing number of questions about trading style / how to trade.

Below i show how i plan to trade this week. Breaks below current support will be shorted. Im not really prepared to take on Long positions for anything other than smal scalp trades until we break the diagonal resistance. i will swap my short on break of ~9250 to a long at around $8k. I will be amazed if it plays out as above to the lunar cycle as a major low. Will be interesting! good luck. Filb

Feb 27
Comment: Like the look of this. looks like we may form a much bigger bottom formation

Mar 01
Comment: Bulls need to test the log resistance at $11.5k+ before the weekly close to avoid the bears next week. Shorts are underwater @ finex looks primed for a fakeout to me. $btcusd $BTC

Mar 05
Comment: Action about to start.

Im 50/50. Pretty confident about both zones. Break of dotted line then fast move to c. 15k. Breakdown and we try again stronger.

Mar 06
Comment: Just a little more please.

Mar 07
Comment: So were are in the zone as described. Key to watch for volume confirmation.
I am already long but will add when its clear whats going to happen.

Mar 07
Comment: and that is why you wait for the volume!
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Comments

30 trade wins in a row! Nice work
+2 Reply
@OllieCc, thanks! was a great ride last week.
+1 Reply
trend trader vs. pattern trader
+2 Reply
are we expecting to hit 12k & then likely to go down?
+2 Reply
filbfilb telsilicon
@telsilicon, something around there.
Reply
telsilicon filbfilb
@filbfilb, ok thanks
Reply
Hello @filbfilb! Thank you for the analysis!

May I ask you one question:
Does the SPX 500 have positive correlation with BTC these days?
+2 Reply
@kwarty, My general view on this is that BTC will follow the wider overarching economic cycles to some extent. The reason for this is twofold. If the SPX Topps out and we fall into a recession, main street and wall street will exit assets into favour of cash, both for safety and because general punters will want their money because they may fear being laid off. This reduction in liquidity form markets across the board will result in fall out into peripheral markets like gold / bitcoin and other asset classes... in particular, risky investments which are deep into profits will be liquidated. There is a common misconception that if the stock market tumbles, bitcoin will do well. This is clearly wrong and you only need to look at how gold did in 2008, it sold off for the liquidity issue. However, gold did rally out of the recession very well which is again what i would expect to see.

So is bitcoin correlated with SPX? Not more that tenuously via the overall economic position which ties everything together.
+5 Reply
kwarty filbfilb
@filbfilb, Thank you! There is some minutes. The reason for asking is this

https://twitter.com/ECantoni/status/965541600507113473

Reply
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