DanV
Short

BTCUSD - POSSIBLE CYCLE COMPLETION WITH LIMITED UPSIDE

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
In my last chart (link below) a retracement bounce with target of 380 zone did not play out as anticipated even though we have now bumping into 340 zone.

During this period with both up and down swings, many chartists using differing methods are suggesting that we have formed a major low and are now in new "Bullish Cycle". Several have asked if there is any case I could make to justify this.

"DOW Theory" looks for series of LH & LL, OR HH & HL to denote up &down trends. One important thing to remember is, what cycle degree are we referring to and within the same cycle degree powerful rallies or declines could take place without altering the overall trend.

Note in the chart below on Daily time frame: we have series of LL & LH since Nov 2013 high. This means that based on DOW theory, at this degree, we are still in bearish cycle and change would not be confirmed till we get a new high above June 2014 high (700 zone) with subsequent HL being formed on any retrace.

However, since Jan 2015 low we are in intermediate bullish cycle according to DOW theory in that we have a High (25th Jan 2015) & Higher Low (Aug 2015) and now forming a Higher High. Does that in it self suggest that we will continue to see series of new HH & HL? Also consider that since 31st Jan 2015 low, we don't actually have series of HH & HL. Rather we have HH & LL so far. Does this suggest Bullish cycle behaviour according to Dow theory? I am not sure if it could be argued to say yes.

Based on EW theory, it seems that we have larger WYX zigzag from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low, which could be labelled as possible Wave A completion. If correct then retracement bounce since, is likely a wave B (which technically can retrace much higher) suggesting that once complete, we would expect to see a strong 5 wave move to the downside for Wave C, OR continue to chop about in some complex corrective pattern in this range. Since that major low every up & down swings appears to be of 3 minor swings. It lacks any signs of showing clear 5 wave move up as essential for any new bullish cycle to develop.

In Summary, we have 2 possible scenarios both suggesting limited upside and at least a retest of the Jan 2015 lows or new lower low to follow as detailed below:

Scenario 1: ABC zigzag with Wave C in the form of Megaphone or expanding ending diagonal (see schematic diagram on the chart). If correct then we might be close to making reversal in the 340 -350 zone.

Scenario 2: Expanded Flat in the form of 3-3-5 construction (see schematic diagram on the chart) which could be still be ABC zizgag of the Jan 2015 low. If correct then we have wxy to Wave (a), Wave (b) also of 3 swings and now in progress to complete Wave C with 5 waves in the form of possible expanding diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction. In this event we could be near completing wave 3, a retrace for wave 4 and wave 5 to follow to the upside to complete this cycle.

Upon completion, we could develop more complex sideways correction OR have strong 5 wave decline to retest Jan low or make new lower low around 100 zone as being in proximity of wave 4 of one cycle degree lower as suggested by EW guidelines.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
danv-charting.com
DanV MOD
a year ago
Daily chart referred to above
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I had had the same idea. However, I closed my shorts after I saw price breaking out at $325. Any shorts below $470 is not good for your trading account.
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DanV MOD meghal.jani
a year ago
Thankyou for sharing your chart. You could be right about safe short, however, it will take quite some time to reach that level if it will in this cycle.
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Esper meghal.jani
a year ago
The 'Overbought RSI does not matter." comment is spot on, lol :D
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ambition1
a year ago
Master DanV is back!
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DanV MOD ambition1
a year ago
Hehehe, thanks for the compliment.
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Djazz
a year ago
Possible it is, although a higher high to $400 is also a possibility. Welcome back btw.
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Djazz Djazz
a year ago
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DanV MOD Djazz
a year ago
Thanks for sharing your chart.
Yes it is not rules out but in that case my megaphone scenario would be discounted , but expanding diagonal wave 5 might achieve that. But important to note that 350 zone is previous strong support which could remain as resistance now till broken.
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NightWish
a year ago
I would highly appreciate a second opinion with charting only Chinese exchanges, since they are running this show (probably because of China's Capital Control). China atm has a completely different structure to the rally than other exchanges.
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onemanatatime
a year ago
Great charts as usual Dan!
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DanV MOD onemanatatime
a year ago
Thanks for the compliment.
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Esper
a year ago
Great chart!!! Thanks! :D
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bbrox
a year ago
Nice count. Lets see if we really can reverse here. All that positive news ... then again, sell on news :)
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DanV MOD bbrox
a year ago
Thanks for the compliment.

I am not aware of Bitcoin new as I don't really follow it. Primarily when one has no idea if the new is already reflected in the price or at what point it become discounted. Often "Big Money" uses events to drive price in their desired direction to exit. So, it is very hard me to make sense of the news, though I never completely ignore it. Just don't follow it closely.

If we have the retracement the price action might give more clues.
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PlayDefence
a year ago
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Hi, DanV.

Really appreciate your profound reply in your old chart. As your mention cycle, I'm wondering how to determine a cycle, would it be subjective? I review weekly chart and try to identify cycle for Dow Theory, I mark it in depth red arrow, a series of LH and LL. If that's the case, then with truncated HL (failing swing), a closing HH above previous closing LH which is already fulfilled, would reverse long term downtrend if Dow Theory is focusing on closing price only.
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DanV MOD PlayDefence
a year ago
I see it in your chart thanks for that. By you definition, you have higher low and now possible higher high. So one could say that we might be in new bullish cycle. However, you could have new high and then reverse as it happens in the case of false breakout. Not saying that must be the case with BTC at present, but what if we get failed breakout and get deep retracement or even new lower low in due course . Could one say we are in new bullish cycle now only to to realise in few days or w a week or so that we might not be?

So is you follow HH & HL sequence then you would need at least 2 HH swings and 2 HL swing with breakout over the second High. But then you might have missed a big portion of the move. That is why I have difficulties and feel that whilst Dow theory is good it still has issues over when the actual change takes place or likely end.
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PlayDefence DanV
a year ago
Thanks for reply. I see you mean false breakout like ABC where wave C above wave A's top, so it's better to have at least two HH and HL to confirm an uptrend. Thanks for pointing that out. I see your idea in EW point of view and it's impressive. In traditional TA analysis, would you think it would be a double bottom with second bottom form a high low with less volume after neckline is broken? Thanks, again.
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DanV MOD PlayDefence
a year ago
You could say double bottom, however, it needs validation, ie clear and sustained break above the neckline.
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LESSISMORE DanV
a year ago
Ok, it's double bottom
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DanV MOD LESSISMORE
a year ago
Thanks. Seems like it.
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LESSISMORE DanV
a year ago
Because double bottom is reversal pattern, so it reverses bearish market to bullish. Could I said that?
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DanV MOD LESSISMORE
a year ago
You could reason it that way. However, I do not think it to be that simple. It could still be retracement. Double bottom do not necessarily mean new ATH to follow. I could be wrong and will be reviewing my analysis with more price data clarifying the wave counts.
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PlayDefence DanV
a year ago
I could see what you mean in EW, but in traditional TA analysis, this double bottom between Jan 2015 and Aug's low is huge, compare to intraday size it's daily and even weekly.Also second low with less volume but higher low show bullish strength. In moving average theory, price is above weekly 30MA and daily 20, 50, 100, 200MA are all line up pointing upward, exchange volume is large money flow in. Normally in moving average theory we can use 200 daily MA and weekly 30MA to identify bullish and bearish cycle. Sometime EW counts would be difficult but could have forecast meaning, but combining price with volume analysis it's obvious August's low with less volume showing some bullish strength and increasing daily trading volume confirm it, IMO.
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PlayDefence DanV
a year ago
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I also make a longterm wave counts with your idea. Comparing historic RSI and weekly 30MA (marked in red cycle), it looks obvious a new cycle seems to have begun. And longterm correction looks like it's WXY with Y is 3-3-3-3-3, and there's hidden divergence between wave 2's top and wave 4, forming wave 5 and wave 3 as double bottom and large WAVE 4 finished. Do you think that would be a possible or probability?
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DanV MOD PlayDefence
a year ago
Thankyou for sharing your chart. These counts have been posted by many and could well be right.

Accepting that this count is correct, then we need to evidence that we have new bullish move for which 5 wave impulse which is mandatory. This needs to be done not only on larger time frame but from the initial lift off using smaller time frame. I am struggling to confirm that. If you could show me then I might be able to see where I have gone wrong. Till then I am holding my view that this is not a new cycle.
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Lanmar PRO
a year ago
Going to 440
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DanV MOD Lanmar
a year ago
Thankyou for your comment. Could do. I would still consider this as retracement rally rather than new bullish cycle. Will follow with interest.
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Lanmar PRO DanV
a year ago
I strongly believe this is far from a retracement rally. I am not one to be biased toward bitcoin.. but this push is extremely bullish. Will not be surprised to see this hockey stick up to much higher levels at this point.
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DanV MOD Lanmar
a year ago
Thank for your view. You could be right.

Though a retracement rally might go further than I have show in the chart. But if this becomes a new bullish cycle which only time will tell, then I would confess I have missed something in my analysis.
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mic.kimani DanV
a year ago
hI danv

thanks for your chart.

People forget in your last video, you mentioned a retracement (large one) as one of the possibilities. SO you actually forecasted this a while back.

Is it possible for this to turn into an ABC flat (larger ie $1200, $ 162, $800?)
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
a year ago
Hi, thanks for your kind comments.

Yes I did say this several times that we could get very deep retracement, common Fib 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or even more. This means that we could go to $800 level (not saying we will) but still it would be bear market rally.

I am not sure about abc flat you are referring to. However, I think the the current cycle began from Jan 2015 low and so far it seems like either abc zigzag, or double zigzag. P&F chart shows clear abc zigzag with wave c currently in progress and is well mature.
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Either this could be the end only retracing 23.6% or we might get a pull back and then another swing higher. But for now 430 - 450 zone if we make it there might be all for this cycle.
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we will then see what price action suggest and review accordingly.
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funtoo
a year ago
hi, can you recommand a good book to start with TA? i started with Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior (http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0932750753?*Version*=1&*entries*=0)
do you have some good books you would recommend to get started with?

thanks in advance :)
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mic.kimani funtoo
a year ago
Steve Nison Japanese candlesticks (book + video), Elliott Wave prinicple Precthter, Stockcharts.com
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DanV MOD mic.kimani
a year ago
Thanks for helping out with that question.
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Spofas PRO
a year ago
Shrekt
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DanV MOD Spofas
a year ago
Thanks.
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BuyBitcoins
a year ago
For forex pairs, I've noticed you have invalidation levels. Is there any that are applicable here?
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DanV MOD BuyBitcoins
a year ago
Clearly from the 2 scenarios the Megaphone pattern appears to have failed. However since this is a retracement of the entire decline from Nov 2013 to Jan 2015 there is no clear invalidation level. ie we could retrace commonly 38.2%, 50% or even more.

You might have seen this chart in previous posting and I have updated it where you can see may be we have the low for Major Cycle Wave A, so what we are progressing in is Wave B. Wave B is is a zigzag made up of minor wave abc doe single zizgzag or wxy for double zigzag. From this point & fig chart filtering out all noise and spikes, we are in wave c which always have impulsive 5 waves which often give the appearance that we are in new bullish cycle. Ultimately this will end and retrace to form wave x for another zigzag or reverse entirely. For now 430 -460 zone could be potential reversal or intermediate top.

Will review as new price data will help to clarify.
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DanV MOD DanV
a year ago
Wave 5 is fairly mature. So it could end even around 400 zone. Unless we get an extension wave in which case 430-460 could be next zone to watch. Hope this helps.
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BuyBitcoins DanV
a year ago
Thank you for taking the time to reply, appreciate it
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BITCOIN seems to be defying gravity at the moment. What goes up has to come down - right? LOL
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DanV MOD Captain_Walker
a year ago
Yes indeed. Thanks for your charts.
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This looks like another Bitcoin bubble like we had back in 2013. Major news events are whipping up a feeding frenzy. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/bitcoin-price-hits-2015-peak-amid-speculation-second-bitcoin-bubble-1526956 - and there is some reality to the value of BTC rocketing as it stands to become a reserve currency. I suspect that shorting this any time soon is probably not a good idea. RSIs and Bollinger bands are popping like mad. It's difficult to know with any certainty what's going on but it sure looks like a bubble to me.

If so, going long on this could be better (at your own risk of course). From Nov 2013, we can see that BTC busted up RSIs and Bollinger bands once the frenzy got going. The daily chart means little - it will tease those who try to short - pulling back a bit here and there then rocketing upward again. I'm considering going long at the next important pullback.
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Lanmar PRO Captain_Walker
a year ago
The chart is gorgeous for a long. Simple as that. What makes it beautiful is how it looks on the long term charts. There's a buying rush taking place. It's a must buy on the dips, albeit difficult. I think it goes straight to 440 - 450 with no problem, then see how a the pull back could get to buy more if you already own or to get involved.
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Lanmar PRO Lanmar
a year ago
then see how far the pull back could get to buy*
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DanV MOD Captain_Walker
a year ago
I am not suggesting short. Merely to look out for possible sign of rally stalling. Whilst at the same to show that this is a retracement rally and wave c of that could indeed look like unstoppable and lead to conclude that this new cycle. It can be compared to an echo wave of the main bubble of 2013. Sentiments will be similar and price action might even appear the same.

If this is a wave c of Retracement rally then the reversal will be total. For now remaining long is the right thing whilst staying on guard.
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Pinkfloyd111. DanV
a year ago
Yeah, people are already saying publishing "too da moon charts." Meanwhile gold is crashing, I believe BTC will also start to turn around, but it's usually delayed for a few weeks compared to gold.
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DanV MOD Pinkfloyd111.
a year ago
Thanks for your comments. I have not take a close look at the Gold & BTC recently. Other than a fractal look using wkly gold and daily BTC quite early on in the BTC bearish cycle in 2014.

I will check and see if there are closer relationship on shorter time frame.
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Pinkfloyd111. DanV
a year ago
I also compared btc to commodities index and I think it's better correlated. No sign of any recovery for commodities, that's why I believe this move in btc is just over extended. But I don't know if it will crash, I just don't see possiblity of testing ATH just yet.

http://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=ccharts&sym=BZY00&overlay=&sp=&nasdaq=&dow=&domain=crb&display_ice=1&enabled_ice_exchanges=&studies=Volume;&cancelstudy=&size=L&type=CANDLE&a=M
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DanV MOD Pinkfloyd111.
a year ago
Here is relatively close co-relationship chart between SP500 & BTC which I have shared many time over the period. We have SP500 approaching its All time high and BTC approaching its own previous resistance. Potential for both to correct at least is on the horizon.
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Lanmar PRO Pinkfloyd111.
a year ago
You talk out of your ass you lose money, or don't make any!
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Lanmar PRO Lanmar
a year ago
That's for Pinkfloyd.
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Tanner
a year ago
Boo
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Hey Dan...long time brotha.

I've been maintaining my counts throughout. While my count slightly differs from yours, the prognosis is the same: One more price drop to $120-$60 range before new wave up.

TLDR; I have Wave 4 of an expanding triangle completing now.

Thx and hope all is well with you...


BTC Wave 4 (of C of II) Expanding Triangle Over: Price Drop ASAP
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DanV MOD Unapologetic_Capitalist
a year ago
Hi Thanks. Not much happened in Bitcoin world since till recently.

That is interesting count with similar conclusion. Though I think we have abc zigzag completing at Jan 2015 low as shown in my P&F chart posted elsewhere in this post. But interesting times for sure.
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IvoZ DanV
a year ago
DanV, you are so polite, it is actually making me feel bad about myself :) Are you still seeing another lower low than 150$? Also since interest in bitcoin is sort of renewed, would you consider uploading videos on youtube again? I've found them very helpful although maybe a bit long-winded.
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DanV MOD IvoZ
a year ago
Hmmm, not sure what you mean, I am my normal self. Anyway, as my view stands at present, I am viewing this as a retracement rally. So when this is over, we are likely to revisit Jan 2015 low or make new low. Too early to tell just yet.

As regards Youtube video, yes some of them were rather long. Do you mean do another video explaining current analysis? There isn't much to add really as a concept overall picture remains the same.
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DanV MOD
a year ago
UPDATE: When price takes of in near vertical with minor pull back it become very difficult to count waves. So I have made the best effort using P&F to remove noise and get some perspective. Here is the chart suggesting 500 -520 zone for now where 5 waves cycle could complete.
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Get ready. With 44,000 Bitcoin to go on auction tomorrow, it is possible that demand may fall - at least for a 'bit'. ;) Price may fall considerably, then push back up as Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency. We shall see. Trade and tread carefully - these can be dangerous times.
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DanV MOD
a year ago
Clarification of Major Bearish Cycle commencing since Nov 2013 high:

Since Nov 2013 high we have had many wild gyrating moves resembling to near parabolic both up and down resulting in big spikes on turning points.

May EW analysts have attempted to label these and some are concluding that we have triple zizgzags with ZZ being the Aug 2015 low in order to suggest that we have now commenced a new bullish cycle. They might be right but I have been concerned with that counts as move of the lows even Aug 2015 low is hard to count as 5 waves up.

I have shared this P&F chart which removes all wild spikes and shows just major price action. On this chart I have now modified the wave counts and have been sharing it for some time now, which suggests that we have Jan 2015 low as possible Wave (Major Wave A) low of zigzag decline from Nov 2013. So now we are progressing in wave . If correct then we have 1st zigzag retrace to upside of that wave B.

More sides ways congestion (Or Range ) will likely follow before second zizzag could develop to complete Wave on my chart.

Conclusion is that the Bearish cycle commencing since 2013 high is still in progress.
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omnik DanV
a year ago
So we are up for new run to all time high this year at $650 but its still a bearish cycle? I don't get it.
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mkliethe PRO omnik
a year ago
Hi @omnik -

Using Elliot Wave Theory, @DanV is suggesting we are in wave B that is part of a larger A-B-C wave (which is a corrective wave - or in this case part of the 2 year bear market).

Here is a sample definition of wave B.

Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative.

So while wave B may appear to be the start of a new bull market, it is actually only bullish in the short term, and will reverse to form lower lows in the form of wave c. Hope that helps!
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DanV MOD omnik
a year ago
Bear and Bull market are specific to time period and price data under consideration. Just because we have Bear market do not mean there will be no strong bounces or retracement along the way.

You must have seen often a market retraces 78.6% of the swing without altering overall direction of the major trend. Not 12 month high demonstrate new trend as it could be just a retracement.

However, if it wish to get to 650 or even high and convinces you that we are in Bull market then let it be. I would not wish to argue against that. Specially when I can be wrong too.

Hope this helps.
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DanV MOD DanV
a year ago
Thanks for your help in replying.
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Tin.Foil DanV
a year ago
DanV, I like your charts, but think they are a little off. We've been sideways now for a few weeks and I believe we're ready to break downward (as you suggest), but not by much. I see us maybe hitting $295-305 on BTC-e before we finish this low area. I'm "guessing" that Overstock and other online vendors will report record Bitcoin sales volumes and while some say reconciliation may lead to lower lows, I believe that most of these Bitcoin trendy companies believe in the long term value of BTC and will more than likely be hording their BTC for the short term future when it reaches $600-800 again (short term meaning within 6 months).

I've been quietly watching the charts the last few weeks, my positions not moving, just sitting here waiting. But I believe we're ready to drop tonight through Thanksgiving, then we'll see things bounce back as the holiday season really kicks in.

Even if we did fall to $150-170, I wouldn't feel bad losing money in my positions, cuz by then hopefully I'll be ready to buy a lot more Bitcoin and be ready for the true breakout.

I do agree we have no clear line of breakout from the 2 year downtrend. We have broken above, but only slightly and the sideways action shows uncertainty. 2 Years is a long time down, and it will take some time for people to start to feel confident enough to buy back in and FOMO.

Anyway, keep up the good work. We'll see you in TV chat again soon as there is movement. ;-)
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DanV MOD Tin.Foil
a year ago
Thankyou for the compliment.

When any analyst publishes a chart it is entirely based on his or her interpretation of price action to date. IN very volatile instruments and one with relatively limited market size, when a particular a move could overshoot anticipated price targets from snapshot view. So I fully accept that I do not get the actual targets spot on. You are probably very correct in your analytical view of future price action you describe.

Right now, I think both scenarios are open, namely one that holds around 300 and head higher to 600 - 800 area before dropping towards last major and the other being that it actually drops to 150 or even lower before commencing new bullish new bullish cycle.

I will review this and update my view with more price data as we progress.

Thanks again and see you later.
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PlayDefence
a year ago
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Hi, DanV.

I am trying to do some wave count in weekly chart and found there're two possible situations. One is WXY with minor wave 5 forming double bottoms indicates bearish trend ended and new bullish trend started. Another is from Jan 2015's low forming an ABC flat retracement (3-3-5) where C wave is an expanding diagonal which also is megaphone pattern. These wave counts seem to make sense but hinting different directions. If you don't mind, may I ask how you determine which wave count situation would be the case in your knowledge base and experience.

Also, I compare T-bond (US1!) with BTCUSD a they are inverse related. If that is the case, considering 30 years T-bond price is probably topping, then BTCUSD may have a ride. Here's the chart
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DanV MOD PlayDefence
a year ago
Unfortunately there are no sure way of resolving possible conflicting counts beside letting time and new data to help clarify.

Regarding truncated wave 5 with low firmed in Aug 2015, I have seen that being suggested many time by various analyst but subsequent prices action to recent pike high do not confirm new bullish 5 wave count. It looks like some sort of abc zigzag. Just my view.

So until I see what is needed as minimum to confirm new bullish cycle I think we are in retracement biunce. Possibly the recent Spike High being formed as wave A of ABC bounce. If correct then we are progressing in wave B.

That is all I can say at the moment. Hope it helps.
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PlayDefence DanV
a year ago
Thanks for your views, it helps a lot.
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ryopphdi
a year ago
Hi Dan,

What do you think about such scenario?

Most pessimistic scenario right now
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
a year ago
Hi, Thanks for your question and sharing your chart.

Indeed that remains one of the strong possibility in terms of your labels A,B and C though not sure if the i-v applies in wave A in addition to 1-5 as your wave 3 looks more like 3 swings and not 5 as you suggest in your chart above, nevertheless same out come.

The only other possibility which could avert the price drop below 250 approx is if we have much larger triangle being formed including all price action since Nov 2013 high as wave 4 of larger degree. For this to remain possibility the uptrend line from Jan 2015 low needs to be held. Too early to tell at present.
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ryopphdi DanV
a year ago
Thanks for commenting.

I agree about 1-5 waves looking as 3 swings. The reason it was marked as such is downward move from Nov 2013 does seem to correct whole bull market 2012 - 2013. If we look at time element it is more likely such a long bear market is response to whole bull market, not just part of it.
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DanV MOD ryopphdi
a year ago
I understand. However, there is not real rule that restrict the correction due to time elapsed even though it might makes perfect sense. The picture should get clearer with more data.
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Qiuness DanV
a year ago
I find that Elliot Wave is not the best tool for market prediction. It can help set a clearer picture, yes, but most of the time as you say Dan: the picture should get clearer with more data.
The uptrend to 400 it still intact
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DanV MOD Qiuness
a year ago
Thanks for your comment.

EW may not be the best tool, but then I am not aware of any disciple or approach of TA can give you consistently exact lows and highs well in advance.

My view is that any TA is an attempt to frame the price action to enable trader to predict or anticipate likely future move. In that context EW which do incorporate other forms of tools such as trendlines/ trend channel/ Fibonacci, momentum etc. So I feel it does have some advantages that other forms of TA do not.

With all things, more data always clarify details but often the trade off for that is that some of the move could be over, unless in major directional trend that will last a long time.

Appreciate your thoughts anyway. Thanks.
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IvoZ DanV
a year ago
Hello DanV, has continuous uptrent in the recent days and overshoot fo your targets changed everything in your opinion in the main chart? Do you still expect large drops incoming?
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DanV MOD IvoZ
a year ago
Thank you for your question. Not entirely sure what you are seeking from me nor if you are simply wishing to see if I will ever change my view.

First of all let be absolutely clear. I have not inherent to agenda nor wish necessarily wish to see the price of Bitcoin's decline or will it just because I might say so. Since I get the feeling from several questions and my interaction with others that leaqds me to suspect that many feel that no matter what, I will always suggest that the price will decline.

So in my answer to the above, forgetting that this is a Bitcoin (and all the competing sentiments I observe amongst the Bitcoin community) and taking this as purely a financial instrument (which in the minds of many clearly it is not and I have no issue with that), and looking at the price action since Nov 2013 high, it seems that we have a zigzag decline resulting in Jan 2015 low. Ordinarily by this corection, I could conclude that overall correction is complete. If this was the case however, you would at least look for 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low based on EW principle. Many analysts and traders feel that the strong rally we have experienced is the evident 5 wave move I should be looking for.

However I cannot see that being the case, nor has anyone yet satisfactorily shown me the valid wave counts. So if we do not have the 5 wave impulsive move of the Jan 2015 low, then in my view it seems that whatever it is, it's a part of corrective move of the decline from Nov 2013 - Jan 2015. Now this could either be a zigzag or some sort of triangle or other combination of moves to the upside, even if this results in a price moving much higher ie, 700+ but on completion would likely result in eventually dropping back towards Jan 2015 low.
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DanV MOD DanV
a year ago
Alternatively, and it is very speculative view, that we might see a massive contracting triangle which includes the price decline from Nov 2013 high in the form of 3-3-3-3-3 configuration. In this event whilst we will continue to move in up & down cycle with each contracting but consisting of 3 swings. In this event it has a long way to go before it is completed but at least the lowest swing of pattern formed in Jan 2015 will be the lasting low.

Now if you are realistic, I don't think anyone in their right minds could say with 100% certainty which of the eventualities will be true. I am not aware of any method which can say that the final low is in. Only time will tell.

So in that context, I am open to both possibilities that final low is in place or that we are retracing the decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 with final low is yet to form.

This might not be the answer you are looking for nor will it assist you or anyone who might feel that they wish to know where is the absolute low. However, no matter how may times I am asked, I cannot add any more than above and which in various forms, I have already expressed before.

The chart below, is only intended to give you some ideas of possible outcome based on EW principles as likely patterns in this overall juncture. In deed there may be some other permutation or combination of them, I cannot reasonably envisage nor be able to show as the chart will become just jungle of lines. But hope it will illustrate both the likely complexity and the possibilities that the final low is yet in the future.
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