I am happy to see Bitcoin look bullish. Although a little disappointed to take some losses trying to catch flying knives.
What bothers me about Bitcoin is the correlation with traditional markets. To trade this market, it seems like it would be better to trade Bitcoin based off the S&P chart.
I feel like there is something wrong with this constant flow of large orders during this move. Some of the weird behavior I noticed during this entire run. There is a constant flow of 100-250k orders since this move started. The orders are triggered from Bitmix and Binance, then the other exchanges follow. I am seeing several of these orders every second each directional movement on S&P. When S&P cools down, the constant orders stop. But once S&P starts moving again, the orders start up again. Its as if there is some kind of F%#&ed up bot triggering large orders based on traditional market movements. There were a few reaction/liquid zones I marked as potential "Short" entries and none of them caused much resistance to this Bitcoin move.
Its as if Arthur Hayes & CZ are doing some sort of tag team manipulation to increase the value of Bitcoin. And funny enough, this is the most recent tweet from Arthur Hayes, "This is what happens with #bitcoin teams up with stonks. Thank you Chairman Powell. You keep hope alive!"
At one point or another, it seems logical for a significant pullback. But as long as S&P continues to rise and have the Fed backing the US markets as a whole, I will just take longs.
Thanks for taking the time to read this idea. If you found it interesting, please support my efforts by leaving your feedback or questions below and upvote this chart.
Cheers!
These ideas are not financial advice.
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S&P looks like it topped out. It looks like we may see more downside from here.
From the fundamental point of view, what I could see, a lot of earnings reports are coming out that are optimistically reported as they are above estimates but overall still down.
This may give Bitcoin some room to finally retrace some of those gains. My target is around 8k.
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H&S on the 15M chart with a measure move which coincides to a similar level of my target.
What do you reckon will be the reversal point and what are you targets for reentry?
thanks
FXHEET
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@hsoaresPT, Thanks for your positive feedback. Much appreciated.
Honestly, I would have expected a pullback by now and looking more for long entries than short entries. .618 & .786 were the most logical entries but we blew past them. 9.3k looks to be a decent historical reaction area and would have been a good level to expect a pullback but I am not convinced this move is done yet. We are currently seeing a pullback in S&P and assuming it continues its drive up, I presume Bitcoin will follow with higher highs.
With earnings being reported, I don't know how the traditional market indexes can continue to rise but it appears obvious the traditional markets are being manipulated by the Fed... Unprecedented amounts of unemployment and weak earnings being reported but S&P, DJI & Nasdaq continue on strong and rise?
For now, I don't want to lose any more money trying to catch these knives and will just follow this trend until it ends.
FXHEET
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@hsoaresPT, It currently looks like the .786 fib was the good entry. I closed my long and entered a short when I saw Bitcoin dipping deeper than S&P. If this plays out, it could go all the way back to the .618 fib which could also potential be a good entry for a long. But I am not so confident it will continue to that extent, due to what I explained above.
hsoaresPT
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@Heet007, thanks for the reply. The S&P will have to dip after earnings season, it is just a matter of knowing if it will take BTC with it.
I'm relatively new to analysis so .618 is around 7,5K? or am I doing something wrong?
Thanks
FXHEET
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@hsoaresPT, Yes, I completely agree with you. I am just worried that the Fed will continue to pump the markets.
I already got out of my Short for very small profit.
For the fib, I did a retracement from the previous high. .786 is around 9.1k and .618 is around 8k.
What do you reckon will be the reversal point and what are you targets for reentry?
thanks