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Hi, this is the first idea that I publish! :D
I have to admit that I was blown away by the crazy dumps of the last days, but now, after a complete retrace of november 2013 bubble, I think we are finally finding the floor.
I always find hard to analyse a cross - exchange price (which can be very different, especially for lows and highs), so I created an indicator with the volume weighted highs/lows of various exchangers (gox, stamp, finex, btce, okc.com, okc.cn, huobi, btcchina). The chart itself is the average between the two oldest exchangers still alive, bitstamp and btcchina.
Using Gann fans, considering the minimum of $2 after 2011 megabubble and the maximum $1221 of last bubble (the indicator I've written shows $1221 on the daily chart ), i think we are bottoming and consolidating between the two 2x1 Gann lines. As the high volume indicates we are in an accumulation phase that should last 1 or 2 months. There is the possibility of a last flash crash in the $125-$140 zone, but overall, in the coming weeks $165-$180 should be a good OTE             . (I think we will retest those levels below $200 because of the heavy resistance seen in the $220 area.)
If the support provided by the 2x1 Gann line fails, we could instead see the same retracement of the 2011 megabubble: -93,75%, which would be around $76. But I don't think the support will fail! :)
Great first idea, nice use of the gann fan to illustrate longer term trendlines!
How high do you think we'll go when the upturn starts in a month or so?
ethil rivet.popper
Well, that is more a guessing game, I think... but I'd see bitcoin going back to $450-$600.
To draw Gann fann on the daily chart I picked the low of $2 and setting the other price at $2 * 3 = $6 144 bars after (the number 144 is important in Gann theory, which I'm beginning to explore);
for the ATH of $1221, I used $1221 / 3 = $407, always 144 bars after. It is a personal method, but, afterall, there no exact rule on how to draw Gann fans, expect an arbitrary rule of 45° on the 1x1 line.
Also the stochastic indicator exiting the oversold level will be a good signal (now it is proving a bullish divergence).
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