Whales pumped the price up to 11600 now and broke the downward channel. People start saying that the bull market has returned.
Don't be too optimistic. Here's some evidence showing that the market hasn't reversed yet.
The real bull market was Nov. - Dec. last year when we had lots of new people swarming into the market with dumb money. And they actually USE bitcoin to transfer value. Check this chart, Bitcoin Transactions historical chart. bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-sma7.html
You can see the number of Bitcoin transactions increased significantly since Nov. 16th. And it peaked on Dec. 19th, the day Xmas Crash started. Then it tried to peak again on Jan. 9th but failed. After that, it fell all the way down to the historical low since Mar. 2016.
"What does it mean?"
It means we have NO noob coming into this market since January. The market is still running on the money from veterans and new people who came in during Nov. - Dec. The bull will lose its power soon if we have no new blood flowing in. I need to see at least some rise on this chart to be convinced that a new bull market has started.
Here I give you a big picture of what will happen in the following days. In my last post, I said there is a chance that Bitcoin will break the downward channel and some major resistance. Now it did. Whales want people to FOMO in and they will have to break some resistance to entice people back into the market. They can build the resistance and break it by themselves with huge buying volume to convince you that the bull is back (e.g. 250 Bitcoin sell wall is eaten in one second).
Whales also use TA and maybe they are reading the ideas published on Tradingview right now. Ideas written by top authors receive hundreds of thousands of views. They can easily know what the market is going to react to some price point from these posts. If I were a whale, I would break some resistance and stop right before the targets or profit zones labeled in most-viewed posts.
So here are two equal-likely possibilities:
1. Bitcoin breaks out from the downward channel and then stops before testing the next resistance 12190.
2. Bitcoin breaks out from the resistance 12190 and stops before touching 13000.
I expect the turning point will be no where near the next resistance so retail traders who want to sell will not be able to react in time - they would expect it to touch or at least go closer to the resistance before turning.
At last, to those unfriendly individuals who keep yelling that people whoever short the market at the moment are retarded:
Be mature, kids. You won't become a millionaire overnight. Whoever told you that you can become rich simply by holding coins for one year or so without doing a decent job is conducting a fraud. This is a Zero-sum Game. What they really want is your money. Experienced traders know it's time to hedge because taking less profit is much better than losing real money. Never FOMO. If this really is the start of a new bull market, we will all have plenty of chances to make big money. But if this is NOT, you are just feeding all your money to whales.
No soccer mammies and daddies here. Whales are even not using real money so much, except on Kraken and Coinbase.All pumps start on Binance with the USDT (check volumes and time difference with the bots of the fiat exchanges). The CEO of Binance said last week that he trusts very much Tether, and people who he trust have seen Tether Bank accounts, and things are OK. AND BINANCE became the major USDT volume exchange. Cute, isnt it? Those scammers play with the bosses of the exchanges who I believe are the actual whales. It APPEARS that those exchanges that are not registered in the USA DOES NOT HOLD any record for transactions and trades. Interesting, right? I am neither a bear, neither a bull. I have seen such scamms in my country when I was young. Many people lost a lot of money that time and the scammers ran to South Africa later, because there is no deportation there to anywhere arround the world.
thombooo
⋅
I like this analysis! I also noticed the price push/manipulation at every major resistance point since 9k... Every time it looks like its gonna go down, a big volume surge takes it back up, then disappears. And at every resistance big buying comes in, then disappears. No way this is retail mom and dad money and traders all watching the charts and buying at the same time. This is someone with big pockets pushing it.
I think there is a very high risk of a major bull trap here, I have been saying it for a while! Check my idea here:
Let's see what happens. Even if we go to $12.2 or 13K, I am very positive we will see a retrace to $7-8k or lower.
custom_drake
⋅
Best and most honest BTC moves analysis so far. tnx!
mmmp12
⋅
Exactly my thoughts, it's being manipulated to create fake safety for buying. At the first breakdown and return shorting it, going to be a big short.
MaxBlue
⋅
Cannot magnify to read the notations. Bummer.
Any suggestions?
Callmepope
⋅
@MaxBlue, click the share button - make a copy - make it mine; I hope it will work :)
MaxBlue
⋅
@Callmepope, Now I am going to sound really dumb....... I was able to copy the date in the window but don't know where to put it now to get the chart. Advise please.
@MaxBlue, on the left side of the Share window, there is a button "Make it mine". Click that button you will have the chart. Sorry my instruction was not clear.