DanV
Short

BTCUSD - BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
There is lot of excitement as traders compare previous "Bubble" and subsequent price bottoming from which the price plotted bullish path and its apparent resemblance to the recent low at 340. This has given many Bullish traders to start talking about new bullish trend and price projection north of $2000 by August 2014 and yet other $5,000 by Dec             2014 etc

Could, the price continue to meet the bullish expectation or is it going to confound the bulls? What does the correct application of Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave Principle suggest for the Bitcoin's intermediate term price action?

Whilst, my anticipated resistance at 570 zone in my last chart was short lived and now we have 680 at the doorstep. This has acted as a resistance now for few days. It is possible that it might hold, or more likely we have potential small triangle in formation which could be very short term bullish and could achieve 700-720 or on a particularly strong breakout could even reach the proximity of 800             .

So in the very short term potential bullish . However on an intermediate term it is in bearish cycle and the current bounce could be viewed as a bear market rally. So my dreaded "RED ARROW" to 300 zone still remains.

Many have taken issues with me for being persistently bearish and not appreciating all the positive fundamentals filtering out recently. Many ask me at what time will I change my mind? Why should I expect 300 retest for the final low?

It would seem that my attempts in explaining these in the Chat has been unsuccessful and perhaps confusing in usage of various terminologies of Bull and Bear cycle or moves.

Well, whilst I do not expect you to accept my analysis without questioning, at least fully understanding my reasoning and apparently taking a solitary stand on the matter could assist you to considering possibilities and then dismissing it if it is flawed and you have a better handle.

Here is the Youtube Link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVLPA
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
Encore DanV, From your old friend Charlie!! we will see in the next couple days about the next level. Cheers
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abit of a run up to $600 do you still this we will restest low 500s?
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KleinDe KleinDe
mean to say
abit of a run up to $600 do you still think we will restest low 500s?
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Just come by and say thank you to you. I watched a couple of your videos on youtube and learnt to how to count Elliot wave more accurately. You videos are great! (a little bit long though...). Here is a chart on kiwi I published just now, applying what I have learnt from you:P

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Toutatis_4179 Toutatis_4179
EW analysis suggests more upside on kiwi
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DanV MOD Toutatis_4179
Thank you for your comments. I agree they are little long. But trying to address many of the concerns others have expressed to e and clarifying the reason live do takes some time. Will keep it in mind for next time. Interesting EW counts on AUDUSD. Agree with most of it. Though just would add that we might not have full larger 5 waves but rather abc.
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Thanks for reminding me about the abc pattern. I am actually waiting for the top reversal signal to short. Obviously the upside looks pretty limited. I was just surprised the price was following EW wave so well so far.
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DanV MOD Toutatis_4179
Yeh, some times not easily interpreted, but they do follow EW counts in any instruments.
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Hi Dan. I am one to cautiously agree with your warnings. I am surprised to see my 'Bump & Run' forecast from 2 months ago following along nicely so far. It seems to support your theory that this has just been a corrective wave in the bearish cycle.

BTC (Weekly) - bump and run theory


When the low of $340 hit, I realigned the fib retracement. This gave a 50% target of $751.40 which we have failed to hit. My question is whether we still need to move to this target or will the 61.8% target of $654.26 (hit) be adequate and marks the move back to the bear cave? From this, the 127.2% target is $115.88. I don't know if I can fathom BTC going that low, but who knows. Maybe this talk of an FBI bitcoin dump might just bring us there.....?
+1 Reply
DanV MOD DanLaffas
As part of the Running Flat we are in progress of wave "c" of B. Hence this is anticipated to be possible rising wedge. As such we are looking for retracement to 520 zone before final leg up which could take it to 750 zone +/- some margin for entire completion of the Wave B as rally in bear Phase. The we will come in wave "C" leg down and it is that which could upset the BULL and is likely to be relentless 5 wave decline which could at least retest 340 low or make new lower low for Entire correction from Nov ATH. Thanks for your comment. I appreciate it.
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