DanV
Short

BTCUSD - BITCOIN - Could it confound the BULLS?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
There is lot of excitement as traders compare previous "Bubble" and subsequent price bottoming from which the price plotted bullish path and its apparent resemblance to the recent low at 340. This has given many Bullish traders to start talking about new bullish trend and price projection north of $2000 by August 2014 and yet other $5,000 by Dec 2014 etc

Could, the price continue to meet the bullish expectation or is it going to confound the bulls? What does the correct application of Technical Analysis and Elliot Wave Principle suggest for the Bitcoin's intermediate term price action?

Whilst, my anticipated resistance at 570 zone in my last chart was short lived and now we have 680 at the doorstep. This has acted as a resistance now for few days. It is possible that it might hold, or more likely we have potential small triangle in formation which could be very short term bullish and could achieve 700-720 or on a particularly strong breakout could even reach the proximity of 800.

So in the very short term potential bullish . However on an intermediate term it is in bearish cycle and the current bounce could be viewed as a bear market rally. So my dreaded "RED ARROW" to 300 zone still remains.

Many have taken issues with me for being persistently bearish and not appreciating all the positive fundamentals filtering out recently. Many ask me at what time will I change my mind? Why should I expect 300 retest for the final low?

It would seem that my attempts in explaining these in the Chat has been unsuccessful and perhaps confusing in usage of various terminologies of Bull and Bear cycle or moves.

Well, whilst I do not expect you to accept my analysis without questioning, at least fully understanding my reasoning and apparently taking a solitary stand on the matter could assist you to considering possibilities and then dismissing it if it is flawed and you have a better handle.

Here is the Youtube Link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzZ0t9BVL...

Comments

+4 Reply
Not gonna happen, man. How long you have been involved in BTC?
-3 Reply
DanV AKWAnalytics
Thanks for your comment. Tell you the truth. I only hear about Bitcoin around Dec 2012 and did't really start to chart till around Aug 2013. S I guess it is not as much as your experience in Bitcoin's history.

I understand that there are particular personalities of for any market or instrument and Bitcoin is no exception. So I sincerely wish you could be proved correct and that I would accept I got it wrong which I am prepared to do. No Problem with that.

However, where price action and wave cycles are concerned it has a way of proving best of analysis wrong if you just follow the crowd or general sentiments no matter what it underpinning such views.

So we will have to wait and if necessary I will bow to your superior knowledge. I can wait.
+7 Reply
ioxoi AKWAnalytics
I have a little more time with BTC that Dan, but I think this is a very different market that Dec 2013, or Mar 2013 or Dec 2012 ...

Now the market reference is houbi not Gox, the reference currency is CNY not USD, the 70% of the market are Chinese traders ...
and probably the old market in which you have a lot off experience is a market manipulated by GOX.

but the BTC market now are a not regulated $7.200 Million not a $110 Million market, now we are working with new rules the traders are a professional traders, not a evangelist of electronic freedom
Reply
DanV ioxoi
Interesting comment. From Currency point of view the Yuan has been weak Vs USD since Jan and could appear that Houbi is strong but only because of Yuan weakness, not necessarily due to Bitcoin's strength. Thanks for sharing.
Reply
I have to oppose here, I guess you took this figure from overall volume comparison, but how can you compare 0% fee exchange volume with 0.2-0.5% fee exchange volume? If you have your own sources of the actual money flow then please feel free to share them. But otherwise I believe it is way harder to actually say how much influence china has now.
Reply
DanV Fahrenheit
You are entitled to have your opinion and disagree with my view. Nothing wrong in that. However, I am not sure what volume you are referring to. I have not taken into account anything about the volumes or exchanges etc. I was merely explain that Yuan Vs USD ie YuanUSD currency pair has been weak since Jan 2014. That actor helps to understand why BTCYuan would be more bullish than BTCUSD. Hope this help to clarify my point.
Reply
ioxoi Fahrenheit
My sources or data are http://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&%3Bt=a&%3Bvolume_unit=btc

and you can check the market share of okcoin, huobi, btcchina y anxbtc

last 6 month: 60%
last 30 days: 76%
last 7 days: 79%
last 3 days: 84%
last 24h: 85%

With this data The market share is clearly growing in China (with the same fees)

are you sure that you look any data?
Reply
DanV ioxoi
Hi, Not sure if that question is for me or other participants. I personally do not look at these data as I am not about which exchange or country is more or less dominant in the market. This type of analysis could help in consideration of what might happen if something were to happen in that exchange or country. But not that directly applicable to chart analysis unless we are at pivotal point and some major even is anticipated in that exchange or area. However, having just checked it quickly from your link, to me it seem the volume has topped with Jan high and since regardless of which exchange, they seems to be on the decline. May be another spike in volume with major low at some point could be more indicative of significant low being established. Hope this helps or at least indicate how I would use data like that. But really not the main part of my analysis.
Reply
ioxoi DanV
is for UseLitecoin.
Reply
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