I hope you are doing well everyone. I know we are in a very confusing part of the market cycle right now, and everyone is antsy to "catch the bottom" for the biggest gains. While alts are showing strong signs that their bottoms could be in, or darn near close to in... Bitcoin is not showing the same for me.
I am looking at these fractal patterns, and the pattern shows me that we still have two large moves down to make before we see any significant bounce. What are the targets? I'm not completely sure yet, but for now, I don't see us starting a bull run at this moment. I just see down from here. There is an off chance we fire up to $9700 before that happens, but, I don't see us going beyond that without making new lows. And to be honest, I doubt that $9700 even happens.
As you can see, I have drawn a red oval around the fractal patterns comparing them to each other. We are not even halfway down the fractal pattern at our current spot. Comparing the two, we have only made it into the green zone. We still have strong moves downwards to go! So,be careful!
As always, trade with caution and education. Your failures are not my responsibility! :)
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Bitcoin has made the move down, as expected. We are approaching "Capitulation". This is the move that scares people out of their positions. The pain gets so bad they throw in the towel because they are scared they will lose it all. These types of moves are designed to get you to sell, and for the rich to get richer by buying very cheap. If you have been hodling, this will be scary. But you have to have faith the bounce will come.
This is how I imagine it playing out:
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As you can see, we are sort of making our formation. However, I am uncertain if we will actually reach that upper target near $7550. It looks like we aren't getting enough juice in our pushes up. So, be aware of that if you are trading in this range.
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I am looking for a base to be formed here around $6650. Then, I expect one final push up, taking us above $7200, before we make our next move down.
I am looking for the actual bottom of this move very soon. We still have a couple of days until that time comes. But I feel it is very near. Once we find this base at $6650, and if we go above $7200, on the next sharp fall we have, once that settles, I believe that will be our bottom, and I will be planning on entering heavily into positions in Bitcoin, and many alt coins.
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I will never lead you in a direction that I have hope for. I will always be completely transparent on what I believe is the next move to happen. At this current time, I am having a hard time forecasting the next move. I truly believed we would get one last little bounce there at $6650, so, the fact that we didn't, makes it very unclear for me now. We could be starting our capitulation move. I'm really unsure. But I want you to know that what I was expecting is now broken. I will update once I have a clearer picture.
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But, I want to make it clear that according to these fractals, this is it. If we follow the fractals the way they have played in the past, this will be our last push down before a big move up. Whether or not that happens is up for debate. But, the fractals show that it does go up after this final push down. So, I am going to be watching for the bottom of this next big move down, as I believe that will be our real bounce spot. I am not basing this on hope, or want, or need. I am in cash, I do not care if it goes down as I will just buy for less. But, according to this fractal pattern we have created, the next big push down "SHOULD" be our last, before a very big move up.
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Even when we look at coins like Ethereum, we can see similarities on the grand picture of the correction and it's fractal pattern. Obviously I'm showing a smaller timeframe of just a month here on the Bitcoin fractal. But here is Ethereum, showing the whole fractal correction pattern... look where we are at this exact moment.
These are the patterns I'm watching for right now. Blue - Down we go. Red - Bottom is in.
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It is looking like we are taking the blue path. Do not be fooled into the quick ups and downs within this range. Unless if we break $7150, I won't even consider the bullish option.
At the end of this next sharp move down, I will start looking for a triple bottom. I am not going to try to catch the falling knife.
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There could be another 12-24 hours of bouncing in this range:
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And just so you guys know, the fractals tell me $5900 is the bottom. But, we need the market to confirm that. There are many good trade callers who predict anywhere from $3,000 to $4,900 to $5,500 to $6,000.
So, my prediction is just one to add to the list. $5,900. And that's based on the fractals, which we have followed.
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Things are looking mixed right now. Obviously, we have a ton of green on the board. And that's excellent!!! I'm sorry I haven't kept this updated, as I moved into a new home this week!!! (UPGRADE!!!)
I am cautious about a few things.
1. There is a very good chance we completed our 4 fractal pattern, with a 4th fractal sort of getting "smooshed" sideways besides the 3rd fractal. This lines up with the long term trendline providing it support. So, in that case, we are done going down for now, and are patiently waiting for another explosive move upward, equal to what we saw yesterday. At least, that's what would happen if we completed the 4th fractal. We would see another explosion just about equal to what we already saw.
2. If we make a larger pull back, to say, $7,000. I would be very concerned we aren't done going down.
I am going to post some charts on here with things I'm noticing, both positive and potentially negative.
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Here is a log chart of Bitcoin, zoomed out. There is the possibility that we are back testing the breakdown of a support. If that is the case, then there is certainly the possibility of more down. We want to get above that line.
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On the linear chart, we see that we have pierced the down trend line, no matter where you want to start it at.
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So, the big question is... is this the bottom? We need to see what the next move is. Explosive move up, then yes. Big pull back? Potentially not. We could still be in the 3rd fractal, which would pull all the way back down to where we started this monstrous push up from. And then breakdown from there to complete the capitulation 4th fractal.
I did make a 100% long entry in my positions at $6800, including all alt coins. I have no intention of selling any right now until we see the next big move.
But I feel certain that if we make a strong move up, there will be more up to follow. If we make a strong move down, there will be more to follow. So, let's see!
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Touched resistance. I don't have any advice for those who are not already long. If you feel like shorting, this seems like a good place to do so with a stop-loss above the trend line. If you want to go long and you aren't already entered, I would probably wait for the trend line to break. If you are long from the bottom, might be a good place to take profit and set buy orders to re-enter above trend line. For me, I'm just going to keep holding my positions until I have a clearer picture of the direction. If we break that line, it's going to move fast and strong upward. So for me, I'm just sitting tight right now.
Things are looking mixed right now. Obviously, we have a ton of green on the board. And that's excellent!!! I'm sorry I haven't kept this updated, as I moved into a new home this week!!! (UPGRADE!!!)
I am cautious about a few things.
1. There is a very good chance we completed our 4 fractal pattern, with a 4th fractal sort of getting "smooshed" sideways besides the 3rd fractal. This lines up with the long term trendline providing it support. So, in that case, we are done going down for now, and are patiently waiting for another explosive move upward, equal to what we saw yesterday. At least, that's what would happen if we completed the 4th fractal. We would see another explosion just about equal to what we already saw.
2. If we make a larger pull back, to say, $7,000. I would be very concerned we aren't done going down.
I am going to post some charts on here with things I'm noticing, both positive and potentially negative.
JoshuaVanier
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where does the bottom of your blue line end?
SecludedJ
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@JoshuaVanier, That's the million dollar question ;) No one knows. There are a hundred different theories on where that is, and really, I have no clue. What I do know, is that based on this fractal pattern that we started at $11,900, and we have followed perfectly, we will see a triple bottom. So, I will update when I believe the bottom is in, and should be able to make a buy within $100-$200 of that on one of the three bottoms.
SecludedJ
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@JoshuaVanier, I think $4,900 would likely be the absolute lowest this could go. Now, you're going to see a ton of charts, even from the big "Top" posters, showing we break the head and shoulders neckline. I personally, am ignoring that head and shoulders. When you go back through the history of time and look at bubble pop charts in crypto, they always break it right near the end. It's like, the final perfect shakeout. People lose hope. The monstrous head and shoulders is broken, it's over... but... it's a trick. And we come right back up through the neckline and go on a bull run.
So, I'm waiting for the triple bottom, ignoring the head and shoulders, and will buy the panic of that head and shoulders neckline break when we find support.
XanderCrypto
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Are you thinking down to 5.8k range? Or further? Closed a short at 6.7k, looks ridiculously bearish rn.
SecludedJ
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@XanderCrypto, I think shorts are now dangerous. You can either make a killing or get completely destroyed. I am personally preparing for long and am making long entries. All the fractals are telling me it's almost time for a big bounce.
XanderCrypto
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@SecludedJ, I've just been trading with leverage over the last week, making the killing aha. I think the keyword here is "almost". The bottom will be known when the buyin and price change is stronger than we have been seeing. For now it is still a downtrend-
SecludedJ
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@XanderCrypto, You're correct. However. I do not believe we will see the massive bounce bottom people are expecting where it just keeps on plunging then suddenly fires up. This bottom will be different from the plunge and surge type of bottom.
We very well could be bottoming any second, and potentially have just made a bottom. I'm really not sure at this point. We are in a very tricky section of this fractal. When we were in the $8000's, it was obvious to me. Now, we are getting very murky waters here. And I think we will see a move up coming very soon.
Especially when we look at Ethereum. That thing is right where it is supposed to be for a bottom. It's just looking very likely our move up is either here, or coming very very soon. And this is the most confident I have been about it in the last three months. What we want to see is what pattern we build here with this consolidation. I will be able to give a better opinion in a couple of days when it really starts to form. I don't see us plunging much more in those days. I see either more sideways, or up.