Trend verdict: Down
Recent broken uptrend
Well tested downtrend
Complete lack of any immediately signals (not counting the 'bull' part of the bull/bear setup)
Most likely sounding scenario:
Retest of ( iii ) followed by eventual break of (iv)
The following analysis emphasizes particular scenarios to be prepared for. Take these for what they are: exercises in preparedness and thought experiment. This is NOT a comprehensive list of possibilities.
Regarding the RSI:
It either (1) follows the down or (2) breaks upwards.
Case (1): Either a new low is made (1a), or it is not (1b)
Case (1a): It looks like a new low would also result in breaking (iv). This should then result in extreme action, and an 'entrenched' . There is no uptrend such as (i) to support the argument for a quick spike and rebound. It may be possible to form a new low without breaking (iv) as well.
Case (1b): A higher low on the would form the makings of a failure swing. Closing above 45.58 would confirm the swing signaling the start of a new uptrend. After a failure swing we expect an overbought to be achieved. A fitting scenario would be a bounce off (iv) followed by a break of ( iii ) and test of (ii) (reminder: this is not necessarily a as it is unconfirmed).
Case (2): If the breaks its upwards without pausing for a failure swing, a break of ( iii ) seems likely (though a simple retest is possible). This case is far more indeterminate than (1), since lack of the failure swing diminishes the signs of trend reversal, while the possibilities of moving right into overbought levels or forming a larger failure swing coexist.