Bitcoin Testing Crucial Trend Line. Watch carefully!!
Ladies and gentlemen. As you can see, (with a logarithmic chart) bitcoin is in the process of forming what resembles a massive descending triangle. As the full $ target indicates a bitcoin price below $0, I've used percentages to indicate the full target, which corresponds nicely with strong support at $1830. This image shows the target, I could not figure out how to upload it to this post.
Given that the decline (after the last bull market) from the late 2013 highs to the August 2015 lows was 86%, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar pattern to emerge this time around. A decline of 86% would indicate lows of about $2750.
Glancing at the chart, I see extremely strong support at $1300, and although the price may not get there, it is unlikely to go further. Speaking conservatively, I would say this is a floor we can rely on.
Now that we have the reasons for a bear thesis out of the way, let us examine what bitcoin is currently up to: it is testing what has proven to be a reliable trend line which forms the top of the descending triangle. IF it were to conclusively break said trend line, I would take that as an indication that the bear market (or correction...whatever you're calling it) is essentially over, and a resumption of the bull market about to occur.
However, interest in bitcoin (as per Google searches) is at relative lows and showing no signs of ceasing to decline. (I refer the reader to this chart.) So I tend to think a new bull market is the less-likely occurrence. Thus, although I am not a financial advisor, I am far more inclined to short bitcoin with the technical protection of this trend line. If it were to break above, I would probably have my stops reverse the position as any break would likely be spectacular, as evidenced by the recent short squeeze.
A final word of caution--I have noticed a lot of exuberance in the crypto markets lately: this is likely to be a bull trap, unless this trend line breaks. Simplistic or not, that's how I interpret the situation.
Given that the decline (after the last bull market) from the late 2013 highs to the August 2015 lows was 86%, it is not unreasonable to expect a similar pattern to emerge this time around. A decline of 86% would indicate lows of about $2750.
Glancing at the chart, I see extremely strong support at $1300, and although the price may not get there, it is unlikely to go further. Speaking conservatively, I would say this is a floor we can rely on.
Now that we have the reasons for a bear thesis out of the way, let us examine what bitcoin is currently up to: it is testing what has proven to be a reliable trend line which forms the top of the descending triangle. IF it were to conclusively break said trend line, I would take that as an indication that the bear market (or correction...whatever you're calling it) is essentially over, and a resumption of the bull market about to occur.
However, interest in bitcoin (as per Google searches) is at relative lows and showing no signs of ceasing to decline. (I refer the reader to this chart.) So I tend to think a new bull market is the less-likely occurrence. Thus, although I am not a financial advisor, I am far more inclined to short bitcoin with the technical protection of this trend line. If it were to break above, I would probably have my stops reverse the position as any break would likely be spectacular, as evidenced by the recent short squeeze.
A final word of caution--I have noticed a lot of exuberance in the crypto markets lately: this is likely to be a bull trap, unless this trend line breaks. Simplistic or not, that's how I interpret the situation.
Comment:
It appears the bulls have spoken! This particular formation's full upside target is $23,000
Sentiment analysis: 3.bp.blogspot.com/-6...+price+over+time.PNG
Why the links did not work in previous post I do not know.