AyKay-Trading

5800$ is still possible but don't think the bear market is over.

Short
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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I do believe in Bitcoin but I still think it is a risk-on asset that will be heavily dumped at the beginning of the coming stock market crash.
During a market crash, investors usually put their money on risk-off assets such as bonds and/or the ones that brings a cash flow (i.e. with dividends).
I expect at least a retest of the $3200k but falling to 2400$ or even 1150$ is not impossible for me.
Next bull run will only come after that and I expect it to be massive if it happens.
Comment: Unless BTC breaks below 4240$ I still expect a last pump before a major dump.

Comment: Here are two graphs describing a possible evolution of the price of Bitcoin with a big dump without an initiating pump. On the second graph you can see that the wave 4 retraces too much and overlap with the wave 1. That invalidates the scenario of a big dump without a first retest a bit above 5475$. My short position is however still open with a tight stop loss in case the initiating pump does not happen.

1st graph

2nd graph
Comment:
Trade closed: target reached: Short closed.
Long opened.
Short will be opened again at +/- 5800$
Comment: My current expectations. To be updated at each wave.

Comment: We are probably still in a corrective wave that is a flat ABC as shown below. In a defensive measure I am closing my long position at +/-5190$ and probably will open a short position. This short will be placed with the only purpose to not lose the train in case Bitcoin starts its major fall to 3k$ and below.

Trade closed manually: Position closed. I am waiting for a better opportunity.

Here is another possible development:

Comment: My expectations right now:
Comment:

Comments

Great post - considering market correlation seems rare on TV, most don't even consider the bath plug
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@dRends35, Thank you
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If the stock market crashes
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@perx, Indeed. The FED and the ECB are spreading money on the stock market and pump it massively. We'll see how far they will accept to go without realizing that it is not long term proof.
Maybe those are protective measures to keep the price of stocks high and companies expensive to acquire and avoid global competitors such as China or Russia to acquirer Western companies easily.
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perx AyKay-Trading
@AyKay-Trading, that is a scenario to be aware of yeah
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Thats what most of people think will happen
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@perx, I am not so sure. I believe many non-institutional investors still think that Bitcoin is the new gold and that everybody will massively buy cryptos to store their values from the stock market. Unlike them I don't think Bitcoin is the digital gold (yet) and I also think that even gold will be dumped at the beginning.
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