Bitcoin Bullish Short term, Bearish long term? $3000 possible?

Hi guys,

magimuffin here. Never done one of these, but I have been taking TA seriously for almost a year now. Would love to hear your thoughts.

I see this movement as part of a larger elliot wave ABC correction upwards, that has the potential to come back down:


The following potentially support my hypothesis, and are what I am considering:

• Volume is below the weekly average. In order for this to be a strong bull run, we will need to see average GREEN volume, at least for the next few weekly volumes.
  
• Weekly candle is currently facing strong resistance at $4k where the purple 13 EMA is, as well as the very large red candle at the week of 2019, Jan 7, whose wick extends to $4100. My hypothesis will be nullified if we can sustain above this EMA with a bullish wick dropping down below it. Next big resistance after this point would be 4400, which falls into the golden pocket area using a fib retracement tool.
  
• No convergence or divergence shared between chart, MACD, or RSI. As seen with light blue trend line, even though all following a bullish pattern up, because there is no bullish divergence, it could easily go back down. Would be stronger case for a bull trend long term if we saw some bullish divergence on RSI and chart.
  
• If we do fall again we will definitely test the 3100 range, our recent low, which also happens to be around the 200EMA, a strong support. If this fails, the next huge test would be around $1800, a support from July 2017. Basically, its gonna take a LOT of volume to confirm this a big bull run, otherwise, I am seeing this very short term in the grand scheme of things, and am still bearishly biased.
  

TL;DR SHORT TERM BULLISH, LONGTERM BEARISH

Anyone disagree/agree? Would love to hear your reasoning...