magimuffin here. Never done one of these, but I have been taking TA seriously for almost a year now. Would love to hear your thoughts.
I see this movement as part of a larger elliot wave ABC correction upwards, that has the potential to come back down:
The following potentially support my hypothesis, and are what I am considering:
Volume is below the weekly average. In order for this to be a strong bull run, we will need to see average GREEN volume, at least for the next few weekly volumes.
Weekly candle is currently facing strong resistance at 4k where the purple 13 EMA is, as well as the very large red candle at the week of 2019, Jan 7, whose wick extends to $4100. My hypothesis will be nullified if we can sustain above this EMA with a bullish wick dropping down below it. Next big resistance after this point would be 4400, which falls into the golden pocket area using a fib retracement tool.
No convergence or divergence shared between chart, MACD, or RSI. As seen with light blue trend line, even though all following a bullish pattern up, because there is no bullish divergence, it could easily go back down. Would be stronger case for a bull trend long term if we saw some bullish divergence on RSI and chart.
If we do fall again we will definitely test the 3100 range, our recent low, which also happens to be around the 200EMA, a strong support. If this fails, the next huge test would be around $1800, a support from July 2017. Basically, its gonna take a LOT of volume to confirm this a big bull run, otherwise, I am seeing this very short term in the grand scheme of things, and am still bearishly biased.
TL;DR SHORT TERM BULLISH, LONGTERM BEARISH
Anyone disagree/agree? Would love to hear your reasoning...
Thank you, i am no TA but folowing a lot of analists and think you ve got a good point. Everybody is way to bullish now suddenly. I also think we re gonna test the bottom or lower before we will start a bullrun
magimuffin
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@ludwig.span, Definitely agree, at least got to see some bullish divergence on a higher time frame IMO