At this point, i still really can't say what the next step might be. I knew a move towards 6800 was possible, as described in my analysis as an option. But it was bigger, but even more, faster than i thought it would be. I know it was a short squeeze, that was the whole idea, but alts have rallied later today as well. My gut tells me, this is still temporarily, we will see a big drop sooner or later. At least a fast 500/1000 point drop .
But the combo with the strong alts today is making doubt a lot. At this moment, i am not seeing any weakness yet on the low time frame. So unless we see something there, i just can't say what the next short term move is.
We can also not deny the V shape move on the weekly i mentioned in the previous analysis. A big fast drop of 500/1000 can still easily happen even if the V shape is real, but if it is real (what i am not convinced of yet), it should be max 1000/1200 points. So in other words, if the V shape is real, the big drop towards 4K levels should never happen. I talked about past months, that if we see a big rally, it will depend on the strength of it, to judge if the end of the bear market has started already or if it's just another lower high like we have seen several in 2018. Think there is no denying that this rally is very strong to this point. If there would be an ideal scenario 2 months ago about what we would need to see to think the bear market, well exactly this.
However, alts have under performed extremely past month. Until today i gave it a very small chance that this is it already. Later today, after the first push to 7000, alt coins started to rally big as well. This is not really meaningful yet though. If Bitcoin would manage to consolidate above the 6600 coming days and alts continue to grow, than perspective will increase a lot. Because it could indicate a real trend change. Until now i will remain a bit cautious.
Just look at how the whole market was the past half year, like it was completely dead. Now it seems like Bitcoin is strong as ever, an unstoppable force. Welcome to the financial markets. Until we see a real correction, at least 300/400 points, i can't give a guidance short term. I have drawn those triangles on the right, there is no weakness at all. This last push just now to 7200 was just as strong. A lower high at 7100 would have been a sign, seeing the market loose momentum. But no such thing yet. is dropping, but it's weekend so that makes it a bit more difficult to judge. We had a few big moves past half year, the big drops in Dec and Feb, one was at Christmas and one during the weekend. Looks like the weekend has been chosen on purpose, but of course can't back that up, just a feeling.
I gave 3 possible targets i could think of a few weeks ago, with 6900 being the highest. We even got passed that one with no struggle at all.
I will update when i know more. You can say, even though i have been past half year or so, i am just caught off guard at this point. This is a unique market. The bear market was like any other financial market, but if bitcoin is something real for the long term, than this market is unique and so are it's movements as well.
Just crazy :)
Suppose you currently buy an old device at $ 400, while the bitcoin price is 7900. While new devices that are pre-sales have not been marketed (by creating this huge boost and rising prices, everyone is flocking to the device, and all devices even the oldest will be sold at double the price) Since a few months ago, new devices that are already on the market with high pre-sales prices are increasing rapidly as a result of network difficulty, the revenue of your $ 400 device will drop by a third to one-fifth, and as a result the device You do not get another $ 400 but worth $ 100! On the other hand, the price of the new Series 2 devices is also decreasing due to the increasing difficulty of the network, as a result of which we have a lot of people who strongly hate the Bitcoin market and the negative atmosphere begins, on the other hand, with a decrease The price of bitcoin new devices is easier to sell, because they have higher power, so in the middle of it only people are losing.
Even some of China's largest purchasing mediators are backed up by mid-range companies, and they are affected by the increase and decrease in prices for their device sales and sales.
This technology will be useful to people when it's stable, otherwise it's a stupid idea.
And stability is at the expense of mining companies and exchanges because they will not benefit
I will see a bright future for this market where mine-capable coins go out of circulation because of a lot of wasteless and energy-consuming work.
The history of Bitmain company sales in the past years and its link with pumps and sudden increases
You can compare the presentation date of new devices by changing prices
But this tactic also has a reverse, and it's when Mining has decided that old devices would be outdated and only new devices would be sold, and that a big dump would take place at that time.
This is a dirty game that you can see if you see its history behind the scenes of this market
There is little conflict in the market. There are painful and sudden flares. There is no resistance and support in this market!!
They first create a pump to sell their outdated and outdated devices and then create a dump so that those seeking profit will be forced to buy new devices and get older devices out of stock.
This is a process that is performed annually in the market
It does not matter where it rises. It's important that everything in a matter of days may be worth half its value
There are no fluctuations in any market
The story of the production companies like those who sold the shovel and they were rich, but nobody found gold.