Echo of downtrend signal. >> BTC reversal incoming <<

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello there. Since I am streaming BTC/USD there appeared some number of topics under my autorship swinging between long and short. You can check them how did they work and how my signals work.
Far from echoing these reminders I would like to put clear statement in this idea, reassuming point of view on this coin.

Why Monster Long targeting 24k USD didn't work? Because I expected decent volume that would confirm this thesis. We entered early enough to watch the situation and had to exit in proper time to avoid losses and set position at correct side. Are We close to the direction reveal? Look at the chart. I opened first trade at 8800 and poured core near 8100 (there is no green arrow because this idea was set up on 4hr time frame chart). Closed this long at 10600 because there was lack of strenght signals. Overwritten position became less powerful when a shade of hope appeared. I closed the short and respected BTC's possibilities and was waiting for volume confirmation. It hadn't happened, and now We experience the beggining of painful phase where smart investors make the best profits. It is not the first time where stock asset gets cut in more than half, although BTC could be the only one that ignores old market rules and breakthrough upper resistances ...
It failed in second attempt at horizontal resistance (violet one) because no additive volume appeared.

Every cryptocurrency experienced huge boost in value. And people are still buying because of forks,airdrops etc. It is sign that investors are distributing their coins to us.

What to expect? We wait for cheap Bitcoin . For me it is <1000 USD per 1 coin. Long term position could have just begun.

breakout on 4hr chart confirmed and retested with bear volume:
Trade active: 8900 and pullback
Trade active: pullback to neckline of double top is expected (9500 area)
Trade active: Next step. Explanation on the chart
Trade active: * $7000 target expected from Double Top pattern
sorry for mistake.

Someone could fall into despair looking on such vital bounce.
My state is: don't get fooled with this kind of volatility. Market is still bearish.
After breaking our FIRST resistance, which is green line, freshly broken. Why isn't it signal for reversal? Because true reversal needs to be confirmed through various indicators, not only one-direction line. There is easy way to accumulate gains by waiting for such occasions like now. Double top pattern is in play now, so only series of strong breakings could put us into inconfidence.
After green resistance there is next border with tough resistances. First of them is EMA 26 - simple but very accurate indicator that works especially during downtrends - big investors use it to trick longers and urge them to buy.
Last the strongest resistance is placed near 9500 level - that's neckline of double top. For now, We have only retested this. We could break bear flag and turn back to slipping.
Trade closed: stop reached: Stop at 9600 triggered after breaking the neckline of double top.
There is also sign of uptrend continuation since double bottom pattern confirmation.
Let's stay flat there till new opportunity will appear.
Trade active: BTC has struggled a while whipping traders, is back to clear downtrend direction.
Let's hunt for 9200-9500 area
We want play this game again.
Comment: After dumping market at 9400, we are ready to hunt for $ 7000 price for BTC.
Trade active: Entrance update:
Trade active: All for all We need to respect major trend line
Profit area: 7000-7100
Trade active: I have recognized characteristic market formations. We are 1 step before strong dip, but there is possibility for second one, the strongest.
So, why take profit after first?
Because We sit on nice profit and don't want to bet on our confidence that much. If opportunity for reshort appears, I will update idea under special conditions.
BTC is over, but there will appear shade of hope to accumulate longers once again. This will cancel downtrend temporarily.
Stay tuned !

Trade active: Strong drill, very fast profit. We experience hiper recession, stocks are being totally devaluated. That's why red printing could be so painful. If inverted H&S works, we should stop to look for new entry. This will be long battle anyways, but every time We will think about green spikes as good entry points. If H&S fails, next meeting with support is expected.
We play in fast tempo here, Profit picking is like collecting mushrooms in Your basket.
Rest info on the picture :
Comment: Inverted H&S neckline, horizontal resistance*
Trade active: Update. The price has received strong downtrend signal. SMA 50 + SMA 20 is in play, so We can expect strong impulse that will shake out the market. Down target shifted because of stronger accumulation at bounces. As You can see, bottom supply zone could start triggering from $ 6500 or lower (green channel).
Trade active: Falling wedge confirmation?
Don't get fooled ! Patterns are the most likely to fail !
In this update I will show You how indicators could save Your cool mind at this stage. There I will use pitchforks, one short term and second one, mid term.

2hr chart shows possibility that the price will meet with SMA 50. I haven't noticed any sign of strenght yet, so crossing it or touching could be a good entry point.

1D chart shows good play of pitchfork, where upper resistance declined perfectly and now We step on median zone. In this zone We will coil and trade by swinging.

Any breakout from pitchfork will cancel this view


Trade closed: target reached: $ 7000 Final Profit Target reached. Checkpoint met with bunch of reward out there.
In this idea I shorted 2 times,
once from 10500 to 9600 and second from 9400 to 7000.
Last trade brought +25% salary.
Pitchfork seems holding the price in the average channel. It is perfect place to consider price reversal. We let it go now, and wait for next opportunity !
Stay tuned for new idea !
Interesting. I'll keep following this.
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