BTC has been printing an unusually long rising wedge pattern on falling volume, and at the same time, showing a strong bearish divergence in the RSI.
Yet still it keeps creeping higher, despite these bearish signs.
With all these institutional investors, do the normal market conditions even still apply?
Maybe such bearish signs will just be completely ignored and BTC will burst through the wedge to the upside.
Or these indicators will apply, as they did in past rallies, and point to a longer and stronger correction.
Currently we cannot know. I would put a slightly higher chance on the correction scenario, but who can tell what BTC is up to?
It would then be already quite soon at the upper end of the longterm trend channel, through which it will probably burst through for a while.
We will have to see how BTC will react at this upper resistance line, it will be important to determine how high BTC will go in this market cycle.
As a rule of thumb I'd say: The sooner BTC reaches high values, the lower these values will be. That's why I'd really prefer a longer correction, but we shall see.
I'd say 150-200k-ish if it breaks out soon, and 300k-ish if it does the longer drawn out correction.
Yet still it keeps creeping higher, despite these bearish signs.
With all these institutional investors, do the normal market conditions even still apply?
Maybe such bearish signs will just be completely ignored and BTC will burst through the wedge to the upside.
Or these indicators will apply, as they did in past rallies, and point to a longer and stronger correction.
Currently we cannot know. I would put a slightly higher chance on the correction scenario, but who can tell what BTC is up to?
It would then be already quite soon at the upper end of the longterm trend channel, through which it will probably burst through for a while.
We will have to see how BTC will react at this upper resistance line, it will be important to determine how high BTC will go in this market cycle.
As a rule of thumb I'd say: The sooner BTC reaches high values, the lower these values will be. That's why I'd really prefer a longer correction, but we shall see.
I'd say 150-200k-ish if it breaks out soon, and 300k-ish if it does the longer drawn out correction.
Comment:
Comment:
Looks like BTC has decided:
The multiweek rising wedge has clearly broken now on a good dump. After all, as we said, the rising wedge is a bearish pattern, especially on falling volume and bearish Divergence in the RSI.
So it indeed looks as if BTC decides for the red curve.
BTC, you have chosen WISELY.
The multiweek rising wedge has clearly broken now on a good dump. After all, as we said, the rising wedge is a bearish pattern, especially on falling volume and bearish Divergence in the RSI.
So it indeed looks as if BTC decides for the red curve.
BTC, you have chosen WISELY.
Comment:
BTC has decided. The dump path, which I thought was the more likely scenario, is now indeed confirmed. The target is at around 42k. This is a solid support zone:
1. Peak from the previous local top
2. Middle weekly bollinger band
Also, it would give a nice 35% correction from the previous top at 65k. And we really needed that kind of correction, it was long overdue.
So then, 42k, then bounce, then some weeks of sideways, before we will resume the climb to 100k and ultimately between 200-300k in this cycle.
1. Peak from the previous local top
2. Middle weekly bollinger band
Also, it would give a nice 35% correction from the previous top at 65k. And we really needed that kind of correction, it was long overdue.
So then, 42k, then bounce, then some weeks of sideways, before we will resume the climb to 100k and ultimately between 200-300k in this cycle.
Comment:
We could also see something like this here:
Long sideways now, until the next parabola is forming.
Long sideways now, until the next parabola is forming.
Comment:
So this scenario here turned out to be the right one, and it had the highes probability as I wrote, because of all the bearish signs: rising wedge, falling volume, bearish divergence in stoch RSI.
Now I think BTC can do a final shakeout to 40k, can but not necessarily will, and then we resume our climb to new ATHs.
Now I think BTC can do a final shakeout to 40k, can but not necessarily will, and then we resume our climb to new ATHs.
Comment:
The shakeout was of course in good old BTC manner more brutal than expected, but certainly not surprising for everyone following this idea here.
The bearish signs were all here, but uber bulls chose to ignore the signs.
What does that latest shakeout mean now? Well, I'd say not much.
We'll go on with the bullmarket.
It briefly touched the lower BBand, and that's it. We might get a delay to the ATH of a few months, but that's it. Not much more happened.
The bearish signs were all here, but uber bulls chose to ignore the signs.
What does that latest shakeout mean now? Well, I'd say not much.
We'll go on with the bullmarket.
It briefly touched the lower BBand, and that's it. We might get a delay to the ATH of a few months, but that's it. Not much more happened.
Comment:
This idea is now invalidated because the drop was too low and the bounce not strong enough. We will not continue to grow towards 100k soon, instead we are going to retest the 20k support. See my newest idea.
I put the probability for a break to the downside a bit higher now, that to the upside.