The picture explains the thesis....It has merit (fractural and confluence)
Closeup shots
Based on previous post, continuation
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Some indications for major moves but also some confirmations required. RSI requires 66% (on Daily) to confirm bullish breakout.
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This is what I woke to today. Unfortunately but at the same time, both an opportunity to buy back and also to give us a signal how strong is this rally. I have a feeling, just a gut feeling, this time round we are going to break the past months large formation. No doubts after this responses result.
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If we play the BEAR case, this will need to drop to 10K, and retest the bottom of 9K range, the 4th time which is unexpected.
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1 can argue we are in the stage of creating the handle?
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Used the old shape...correction done and updated
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From a Harmonic perspective
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FYI, there was a big 4 hrly bearish divergence but these are hard to know when they play out. Not only did it play out, it triggered all the stop limits. I also saw a wick that probed the stop limits below and I suspected that many got triggered and hence they\bots in action, doubled played them at the right bearish div. sign.
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Here is my theory for recent plays. If you refer to the chart, the first large wick to the upside (which I got lucky on), triggered many of those who were going long (stop buy orders) and they got collect only to lose quickly as it went down. That cleared the way for the price to rally up so now they chased it. The next wick was a probe to the bottom as i said, which triggered all the stop limit sells, and they got wrecked, only for those to rush back in to new highs. That followed by a dump. This seems to me a good way of stripping people with their $$. What are your thoughts...coincidence. I don't think so.
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Some creativity \ scenario playing but also some confluence. I like to do this because I also like keeping active and speculate. I have a small portion of my money purely to make money in the middle of major moves.
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If BTC breaks this current formation, then the hypothesis as a Cup and Handle is invalid. I would expect if it breaks on this to the downside, then we will go down, plummet but stay within the Macro formation which I see as BULLISH now. I am bullish at the MACRO level based on a few things I have seen. I will post my explanation (scenarios) in the next round.
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Approaching the critical 10K... as its seems to be a strong support. I would expect at least 1 bounce from here. If this doesn't hold, then we will see the 9K bottom tested again. That is probably expected. Based on the result, we will see 2 scenarios play out, each one would give us an indication if to go long or short.
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Watch this space
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Looking good so far. Needs to pass this next fib.pitchfork level. RSI passed. EMA passed.
hey, saw your "3 sep" post and really liked it, do you think i should set a selling limit on 13K or less? any other suggestions would be appreciated
ssari
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@sajaadsari, It really depends on your strategy. I used to operate with the mindset of "all" at the top and "get the bottom". But over time, one realizes its an unrealistic expectations and one must just settle for a good move and good reward, not the maximum. If you accept this, then trading becomes easier. Sometimes you get lucky finding both. If you accept this, then your strategy should be like, take portions of profit along the way up.
For example. If 12400 is the main target with no guarantees. One should then maybe take a % at target 1, then another % target 2 and remaining 50% to 60% at target 3\stage where there are 3 targets\levels. Why, we don't know if its really going to get there.
If by chance, it drops after stage 2, well you have pocketed 50% and along the way, you see bullish divergence or other formations to make a decision, stay or keep going.
The selling bit has two components: 1) when your live watching the trend and 2) set a target and wait. I do both.
Right now, we are bullish and until further information is available, I would sell below 13k and buy back at a appropriate level, usually after a sell off at a strong resistance level. 10900 was it.
The next level is 11500 and 12000. I have 12400 and 12950 after that. Note I dont think 11050 won't be much of a resistance because of last time.
ssari
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@ssari, If Cup and Handle is true this time, we have this consolidation range that one can take advantage of
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@ssari, wow, very very useful information and a reasonable strategy to trade, i'll keep that in mind, thx