TIMESTAMPS: ________________________________________ BTC 0:00 Why the Macro Still looks Bad 7:02 ETH/BTC 8:33 DOGE 9:35 XRP 12:55 Closing Statements 19:45 ________________________________________
I go over what I think pretty quickly and then go into the nuance of the movements and then a quick overview of ETH/BTC, Doge and XRP. I recommend watching at least the first 4-5 minutes of the video.
Summary: the Macro looks horrible and that hasn't changed. The price needs to reach around 22.4k within the next couple of days for me to even consider a change in mid-term trend. The fact that BTC mainly moves when the stock market is open hasn't changed either.
There are conflicting buy and sell signals on the short term now with converging sell signals on the 2 and 4hr timeframes.
Yesterday's day candle, to make things worse, hit the target we needed to hit on todays candle, 4 hours before it needed to be hit. Furthermore, were collapsing back down to hit the target we need to hit (today), with the downward trend from everything crated on todays day candle thus far.
I mention Doge XRP and ETH/BTC also, but not much has changed with those.
Check near the end of the video for XRP as it is the only one that may have a chance of doing anything. Though, depending on where the day timeframe candle ends for btc things could be bad in the short short term and indicate weakness coming into the stock market this Monday.
Now, I wait for things to happen, so none of this means much to me until we start these candles where I want to see them. I just like to put out my thoughts to better explain my thinking and show how this strategy can be used for the longer time frames and similarly for the shorter time frames.
Also BTC starting the week right under the Day hull and with a down trend on it, generally shows a big drop chance on the short to mid term.
I will be streaming the Week candle change, starting tonight at 19:30 EST (UTC-4). As I always do.
Comment
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I'm going to keep it short and have a non-video update here. We ended above the Day Hull average and fairly close while having a sell under the level on yesterdays candle.
This means I expect BTC to hold at least until the market opens and possibly the market may open up.
What I am looking for is APPL to start at or above 151.20 and I expect we have a decent chance at a stock market recovery or at least the first step that is needed to make solid ground. Obviously I believe this can easily translate to BTC making nice gains. We will have to see what happens, but that is what I am looking for.
Nothing really different from where we left off on Friday evening, but BTC (starting slightly above the hull average for Sunday) is in an acceptable spot to receive support from the stock market.
would you mind doing a quick tutorial on how you setup your "trend line channels" i really like how you have the 4hr channel, daily, weekly on your chart but for the life of me cant figure out how you came up with it.
TrendLINEBoys
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@JamesRunningLongAbbe, There are a couple of things to note. If you check my week timeframe idea from Jan 15th of the pitchfork (I will link both below), you can see the places I lined up the Schiff pitchfork at. I am not sure what happened on TV's side. The charts, but not the ideas, stopped lining up, so it required a chart adjustment based on the ideas (the ideas never changed thankfully or I would have not been able recreate it.).
Here was a video Idea I created back then to show how I set it up and how someone else can, but not anymore for some reason. Like I said though, if the steps in the video are followed now, it doesn't exactly line up even when using the same initial points. It may be because of some change in their charts combined with me using log. I would set it up as I did in the video linked below and then find certain points on the 4HR idea I also linked below and line those up. Some of the key dates that are easier to line up are Jan 20th 2022 (top of the blue line) and feb 27th 2022 (bottom of blue line).
So what I had to do was make small adjustments based off of this. The main purpose of the schiff pitchfork is mainly to identify strong trendlines based around a significant line (inflection point). If you really want to have it line up, check the 4HR idea that I will link right below this and adjust it from there. Or just use your own BTC chart and refer to the idea itself when you want to.
I know it sucks, but it just is what it is. I am just very grateful that I made the ideas previously and that they were not changed. Otherwise my data would have been screwed up and because the data points now look off, I would not have used this pitchfork, as it would have looked like forced data.
TLDR; Follow the video idea and then adjust based on the points of contact where the 4HR pitchfork idea exactly touches the line. Something happened and this must be done.
JamesRunningLongAbbe
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@TrendLINEBoys, thank you this was insightful. its amazing when a chart lines up.